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Books facing a big loss in Game 6 of Heat/Pacers
First off, let's just make this clear. At the end of the day, the books always make money. They can survive a few big losses and still be just fine.
But Indiana is DONE and everyone and their mother is going to be on Miami Thursday night. What line can the books throw out there to try and avoid a beatdown? Heat -5.5? Hard to imagine seeing a line like that given the past lines in this series but I think that's what Vegas needs to do here.
Heat ML will be pounded harder than a $2 hooker. A lot of people will still have no problem pounding a juicy ML in this spot.
Think you are right though, this series is over.
Pacers were done after they blew that double digit lead in game 4. Sometimes books know they are going to get beat regardless of the line. Wouldn't be surprised if they show some RLM on this game trying to get people to put money on INDI.
Right but I guess my point here is what will the line be? If the books do go and throw out something like Heat -5.5, then do you take Miami? That's a lot of points to lay on the road in an elimination game.Originally Posted by Speedy88
Depending on Granger's status, it could be somewhere close to -5.5 if he doesn't play. W/ or w/o Granger, I don't see any reason why the Heat can't win by more than 5. Pacers look finished, and Vogel hasn't made any adjustments in this series to defend Wade and James. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what the line is.
Granger is done. If the guy can't even hardly walk right now, he can't be ready to play in 48 hours. Shit is over.
Agreed. With or without Granger, Indy is done.
his x rays came back negative. I think he will be ready for thursday.
I might take pacers ML if the juice is right.
These are the type of games you empty out the savings account on.
The college funds
Mortgage payments/rent money
Your vehicle
Wedding rings
You get the picture.... All Of those on heat moneyline
By the way, Granger should be fine unless he really stretched out some ligaments badly. Just looked like a standard sprain, he should be able to man up and go on Thursday.
LeBron put up 1 finger as he was about to leave the court... signaling to the fans that only 1 game left. no way a game 7 in this series... Indy has been defeated. Wade and LeBron killing now and other guys contributing now.
what will the Heat ML be?
-315 would be my guess
i hope thats a joke. it was -350 tonight at home
you aint gona see any 5.5 line here guys, no way the books make that big of an adjustment without a major injury this late in a series.
I'm thinking Heat -1 or -2 maybe. Supposedly Granger is gonna take some painkillers / injections and play the game out. Haslem, however, might be suspended. Just some food for thought. Pretty sure Heat are still the play.
i think between heat -2 or -3, they closed at -2 in both games in indy, i do think it has to be a shade higher.
Line will be Heat -2, maybe -3 if Granger is indeed out
It'll probably be a pretty close game going into the 4th and Miami will just put it away. Indy's go to guy at the end of games is Granger and that's not a matchup they can take advantage of and I doubt they will game plan for this because they are not a very smart team. In the last few minutes of the 4th quarter in a playoff elimination game, buckets are the hardest to come by. I see the Pacers hanging in the game for the most part and then Wade will close the game out. There's really no point in touching the spread because teams get frustrated and who knows how many fouls will be committed at the end of the game.
In this spot Granger plays guaranteed. This is a dangerous proposition for Heat backers. ML will most likely skyrocket, but I'd be hesitant with Miami on the road. Standard bet here, judge the value, don't go crazy. If Pacers finally come to their senses and hit the paint like they should, Heat is in trouble no matter how much Wade and Bron score.
Last edited by CallMeChip; 05-23-12 at 02:40 AM.
Yeah the books already know they will lose bigtime with the Heat but it doesn't matter. They will make it all back when people bet the Thunder against the Spurs. It's the flashier team right? Did you see all those big plays by Durant and Westbrook? People still don't know how good the Spurs really are because they're not a highlight reel team.
I think it will be Heat -130 on the ML and agree that its the play!
Heat open -3, moved to -2.5 5Dimes ...
I'm taking Heat goat. I missed the -3 however.
Why am I warming up to the Pacers?
Because after seeing Boston, you might expect Miami to sleep on game 6 as well and wait to finish at home.
Possible, but very unlikely. I think Wade and LeBron are not interested in working their asses off for 7 games in this series, because it will take a toll on them, and they need to save themselves for ECF and finals.
Without Haslem can the heat do it with just Wade and James?
That's what I'm thinking. Haslem is a key piece to their pick and roll/pop offense. Wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers defended the pick and roll much more aggressively in game 6 knowing that none of the Heat's big men can score outside of the paint. For the Heat to win, Wade and James will have to combine for 60+. Does Vogel finally make the adjustments to guarding Wade and James? So far Indy has let LBJ and Wade do whatever they want. Hmmm....
Under looks good as well. I'd expect the Pacers to tighten up their defense after being called out by Larry Bird and letting the Heat shoot 60% in game 5.
I'm thinking of taking pacers maybe small, especially after bird called out his team and they agreed they played soft
team that has won the rebounding battle has won each game in this series, don't see any reason pacers don't outrebound heat game 6
mia 49 rebs to 35 (chalmers had 11 rebs) game 5 *haslem 10 pts 5-6 fg, 6 rebs 115 to 83
mia 47 rebs to 38 (lebron had 18 rebs and wade 9 rebs (well above their averages)) game 4 *haslem 14 pts 5-6 fg, 4 rebs 101 to 93
ind 52 rebs to 36 (turiaf had 8 rebs, haslem 3 rebs) game 3 94 to 75
ind rebs 50 to 40 (haslem 4 rebs) game 2 78 to 75
mia rebs 45 to 38 (haslem 5 rebs, bosh 5 rebs) bosh 13 pts, j.anthony 4-4 9 pts 7 rebs (lebron had 15 rebs) game 1 95 to 86
game 6? who will step up and grab the boards and help wade/lebron?
IF Indy actually pounds the ball down low with Hibbert and West and force someone other than Wade or James to score, they should win this game. However, those are big IF's.
It's hard to imagine Indy winning this game considering the way this series has turned but I'm starting to think too many people have just assumed tomorrow night is a formality.
Indy have to pound the ball inside.
West has to make some shots and Hibbert needs to dominate on the glass and in the post.
I thought after game 5 the Heat winning comfortably was a foregone conclusion but now I am not so sure. Indy are not going to roll over here.
Heat will sweep or win in 5 vs the 76ers or Celtics. Good god the eastern conference finals going to suck. To bad the Bulls had injuries would be great western and eastern conference championships.
Didn't you do that by starting this thread? I'm confused.
Wasn't this line at -3.5 at pinny earlier?
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