[billyunl]

Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

Play:

Philadelphia 76ers +3

Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

Remember the Bulls play and how it was partly based on how often they cover the spread? Well San Antonio is the only team that covers more spreads than the Bulls. Odds makers are auto-inflating every Spurs line, to thwart the squares that bet on the Spurs “just because they always cover.” Again, only 8 teams in the past 8 years have covered 60% or more spreads in a year, 3.33% of teams in the period of time (8/240=.033) the Spurs are covering exactly 60% right now. It is more likely than not, odds makers will knock that figure as close as they can to 50% over the remainder of the season.

The Spurs will be without 2 key pieces (Splitter, Duncan) and a good role player (Neal). Duncan and Splitter are the Spur’s #2 and 3 most effective players, respectively. It also helps that San Antonio will give more playing time to the cancerous Stephen Jackson, who had a terrible -4.1 Roland rating with the Bucks this season. Jackson hasn’t had a positive Roland rating since the '09-'10 season, and he’s never had a rating of more than +2, he is quite overrated.

Referee assignments:

• Joe Crawford: 10-24 home team ATS record
• Matt Boland: 23-14 home team ATS record
• Josh Tiven: 19-17 home team ATS record

The Sixers would have a huge referee advantage, but of course the NBA seems to always pair Boland with Crawford or Brothers, to even things out. Crawford is head, so he has more pull. He likes to give the home crowd something to boo about.

[volkmannthad]

I was excited to play Spurs, but I am now going to tail you, for you are wise and have given me many winners.

[BigDofBA]

I like how you break games down. Regardless if it wins or not, it's nice to see reasoning

[pacocn]

Billy, glad to see we concur
lets get em.

[thesafecracker]

Billy in da house.
Never would have thad the stones to bet this one.

[as99]

Duncan hasn't been confirmed yet though.

[BigBurk]

Nice pick, too bad to read on twitter (on your blog) that you are going to stop posting publicly eventually and only email your plays to donators.

[Dom177]

shoot I'll donate once I get some cash flow going, I'm a fan so far

[TheAntFather]

Hey Billy, I would also like to donate if I see your plays win. I never seen you post on here before. Please pm me for details on being on your list. Thanks, Anthony.

[Covy]

I tailed here and lost.

Not worried because the Sixers top player Iguodala was scratched right before tip-off, which wasn't factored into this play.

[pacocn]

billy, lets get back on em tomorrow, i was able
to hit the thunder under to break even

[Judgejoebrwn]

I tailed here and lost.

Not worried because the Sixers top player Iguodala was scratched right before tip-off, which wasn't factored into this play.

First Nene, then this? Two solid plays ruined by late injuries? Can't imagine that happens very often


-Judge

[RL75]

First Nene, then this? Two solid plays ruined by late injuries? Can't imagine that happens very often


-Judge

Lucky for me I had both of those plays. yeah me

[volkmannthad]

Damn, should have stuck to my gut. Nah, just kidding, we'll make it back double so tomorrow if you post it again.

[PR9]

we all lose plays. Keep it up Billy with the great work !