1. 03-21-12 01:55 PM #1
    billyunl
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    NBA Wednesday.. 3-0 yesterday.. 91-52 YTD (63.6%) +70.9 units

    Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.

    All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.

    Plays:

    Washington Wizards +4.5

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    Both of these teams are extremely counter-intuitive, so we are gaining a double edge from the universal home advantage odds makers use. The Nets are a full 11 rating points better on the road than they are at home, enough to be my most counter-intuitive team.

    One of the biggest factors in this match-up is the fact that Nene is a major upgrade from JaVale McGee. The Wizards are actually a decent team down low with the trio of Nene, Booker, and Seraphin. Not to mention, they are better off with the pure scoring ability of Jordan Crawford, now that Nick “String Bean” Young is out of the picture. I would consider the Warriors now comparable to the Cavs and Kings.

    Secondly, the Wizards are still covering spreads less frequently than any other team in the league and, if the season were to end today, the 2003-2004 Orlando magic would be the only team in the past 9 years to cover at a lower rate than the Wizards. As I’ve said recently, the Wizards are likely to cover more spreads than not the rest of the season because odds makers are looking to thwart anyone blindly fading the Wizards.

    Referee assignments:


    • Mike Callahan: 16-15 home team ATS record
    • Josh Tiven: 19-15 home team ATS record
    • Leon Wood: 19-16 home team ATS record


    Waiting on this line, it should hit +5 soon.

    Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5

    Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units

    Both of these teams are mildly counter-intuitive, the Cavs are a full 7 rating points better one the road, than they are at home. That makes for big value when the Cavs are on the road.

    The isolated incidence of Atlanta beating Cleveland by 16 at home on Sunday gives us some added value. You’ll always get some value from situations like this because of the public’s “what have you done for me lately” mentality. Which actually makes the Hawks less likely to cover a subsequent spread vs. the Cavs, because odds makers have to adjust for the public’s ill-conceived notion that Sunday’s outcome makes Atlanta more likely to cover tonight’s spread.

    Referee assignments:


    • Ron Garretson: 20-16 home team ATS record
    • Tony Brown: 15-19 home team ATS record
    • Kevin Cutler: 17-16 home team ATS record


    Not sure if this line will hit 8, although it should. You can take +7.5, I am waiting.
    Points Awarded:

    bmansell33 gave billyunl 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    visualrealism gave billyunl 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Covy
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  2. 03-21-12 01:57 PM #2
    mp5070
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  3. 03-21-12 02:02 PM #3
    Here We Go!
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    Thanks for the insite!
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  4. 03-21-12 02:05 PM #4
    BigBurk
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    Great stuff.
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  5. 03-21-12 02:48 PM #5
    thesafecracker
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    Love the Wizards getting the points.
    Great the way you pick the games people aren't looking at.
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  6. 03-21-12 03:52 PM #6
    leetreaper
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    You have like 40 posts and yet ur result is 91 winners, what gives? u started posting at 50-0 or so?
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  7. 03-21-12 04:20 PM #7
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    You have like 40 posts and yet ur result is 91 winners, what gives? u started posting at 50-0 or so?
    See my profile, several record trackers.
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  8. 03-21-12 04:25 PM #8
    Speedy88
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    Nice picks Billy. Cavs have been a covering machine as big road underdogs this year, and Wiz have been playing really well since the McGee trade. Good luck.
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  9. 03-21-12 05:35 PM #9
    visualrealism
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    Tailing.
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  10. 03-21-12 07:04 PM #10
    spippen
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    Both teams could win outright. Atl and NJ being favored over anyone is a joke.
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  11. 03-21-12 07:17 PM #11
    PR9
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    looking at it early, both teams showed up


    BOL
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  12. 03-21-12 07:25 PM #12
    Speedy88
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    Damn....pissed at myself for not tailing you on CLE. Looking good though.
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  13. 03-21-12 07:27 PM #13
    bmansell33
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    Have you thought of making just one thread instead of daily? Just $.02 but thanks for all our hard work really appreciated
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  14. 03-21-12 07:39 PM #14
    IllyPhilly[DOC]
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    I'm thinking if i should play both cle/wash 2h's since there game is outsanding
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  15. 03-21-12 08:45 PM #15
    Speedy88
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    Best capper on SBR right now!
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  16. 03-21-12 08:46 PM #16
    IllyPhilly[DOC]
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    8-0 run I think right?
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  17. 03-21-12 08:47 PM #17
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by IllyPhilly[DOC] View Post
    8-0 run I think right?
    I think it's 7-0, but I could be wrong. Either way this guy is killin it right now.

    Hey Billy, how much is a unit for you?
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  18. 03-21-12 09:11 PM #18
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    I think it's 7-0, but I could be wrong. Either way this guy is killin it right now.

    Hey Billy, how much is a unit for you?
    Yup, it is 7-0.

    I normally start the NBA season with $800/unit and work my way up to ~$1500. Ahead of pace this season.
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  19. 03-21-12 09:14 PM #19
    OUKUSFBOS
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    Incredible run Billy.... will be tailing you consistently. Was on both of these tonight.
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  20. 03-21-12 09:14 PM #20
    Shoooby
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    Amazing billy!!
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  21. 03-21-12 09:17 PM #21
    Crofta
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    Man, hats off........best part of your plays are you always take the points so even if you are down, still a chance of hitting.

    When laying the pts (Like Philly today), its a long was back when you are down some.

    Like your stuff.....quality work.
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  22. 03-21-12 09:19 PM #22
    TripleDDD
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  23. 03-21-12 09:23 PM #23
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyunl View Post
    See my profile, several record trackers.
    Word.
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  24. 03-21-12 09:28 PM #24
    billyunl
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    2-0 tonight extends my latest streak to 7-0.
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  25. 03-21-12 09:45 PM #25
    SBRMAN23
    Be humble sit down
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    Hats off to you been an amazing streak and record
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  26. 03-21-12 09:49 PM #26
    Hangoverblack
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    Absolutely fukkin solid.
    Added $1200 to $1000 last night.

    These plays make sense. Most end up being RLM as well.

    Thank you- been on this forum for. 2 years and this is the first attaboy I've been compelled to give.

    My local is on suicide watch
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  27. 03-21-12 09:49 PM #27
    underal
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    smokin hot. keep em commin
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  28. 03-21-12 09:53 PM #28
    pacocn
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    Billy, helluva run!!! Keep it going ,
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  29. 03-21-12 09:54 PM #29
    pacocn
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    Billy, what is the advantage of having a record
    tracker? I usually just keep track of my own record,
    and incorporate the juice as well.
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  30. 03-21-12 09:55 PM #30
    PR9
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  31. 03-21-12 10:06 PM #31
    visualrealism
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    Billy thanks for the plays!!!!!
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  32. 03-21-12 10:49 PM #32
    pacocn
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    Billy, do oddsmakers take into account that a team has been successful on the road or do
    they just automatically factor in the "universal home advantage" even against a successful
    road team. Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
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  33. 03-21-12 11:07 PM #33
    Checkerboard
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    thanks for the winners billy
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  34. 03-21-12 11:32 PM #34
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacocn View Post
    Billy, what is the advantage of having a record
    tracker? I usually just keep track of my own record,
    and incorporate the juice as well.
    I do too, that is my record in the title. Record trackers are third party sites that track objectives, all plays are final so you can't fudge them.. it makes for more reputable records.
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  35. 03-21-12 11:33 PM #35
    billyunl
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacocn View Post
    Billy, do oddsmakers take into account that a team has been successful on the road or do
    they just automatically factor in the "universal home advantage" even against a successful
    road team. Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
    It is universal, for the most part. They never give an extra edge to the road team based on their road performance. They give extra/less home advantage to some teams though.
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