1. 03-14-12 05:33 PM #1
    Speedy88
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    Fade the Two OT teams, both with RLM

    Clipps are -7 against the Hawks. 70% on ATL yet the line moves from -6.5 to -7. I thought the opening line was a bit high to begin with. Clipps are rested, Hawks are not. Hawks played OT last night in Denver as well.

    Also 65% on Magic yet line has moved from Spurs -6.5 to Spurs -7.5 Magic coming off a big win against the Heat in OT, and Spurs are well rested.

    Both the Hawks and Magic are big public favs, yet the lines keep going in the wrong direction to get even more people to bite on ORL and ATL. I

    I'm going to roll with SA -7 and Clipps -6.5 here.
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  2. 03-14-12 05:40 PM #2
    riskyProps
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    I'm on it Speedy!
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  3. 03-14-12 05:43 PM #3
    Speedy88
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    Also, what are everyone's thoughts on GS +4.5. I think there is some great value in GS here. I think people are underestimating this team without Monta. With Monta gone, it allows other guys to step up. GS has a ton of guys who are capable of scoring 15-20 pts on any night (David Lee, Klay Thompson, Nate Robinson, Brandon Rush, Dorrel Wright, etc.).

    If GS runs like they should do, they should cover and have a good shot of winning SU. I'm honestly surprised that more of the public isn't on Boston. I was expecting over 80% to be on BOS.
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  4. 03-14-12 05:49 PM #4
    PR9
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    just look at boston's body language and demeanor during the 10 mins right before tipoff.


    that will tip you off on who to play
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  5. 03-14-12 05:49 PM #5
    jayson311
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    You Could easily win both games with thes big favs bit the rlm has nothing to do with it. You think it's as easy as look at % and line movement?
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  6. 03-14-12 05:54 PM #6
    Pauulzcappin
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    I like the Spurs.
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  7. 03-14-12 05:57 PM #7
    IllyPhilly[DOC]
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    I love atl.. Now I'm nervous
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  8. 03-14-12 06:00 PM #8
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by jayson311 View Post
    You Could easily win both games with thes big favs bit the rlm has nothing to do with it. You think it's as easy as look at % and line movement?
    Obviously not, anyone who bets only because of RLM will not have success. But if you pick your spots, you can be successful.

    I'm much more confident on Spurs than Clipps. Clipps have been playing like crap ever since the Billups injury. And this is just my opinion, but Paul doesn't look comfortable wearing the mask.
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  9. 03-14-12 06:01 PM #9
    PR9
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    I'm with ya on Spurs

    if that goes well I'll go Clips for the later game

    HUGE fade guy on covers swears by ORL ML with put your mortgage on it.. lol
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  10. 03-14-12 06:04 PM #10
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by PR9 View Post
    just look at boston's body language and demeanor during the 10 mins right before tipoff.


    that will tip you off on who to play
    If GS runs, which they should, I don't see how Boston will be able to keep up. I'm going to snag GS +5 now and take a chance. Hopefully Rondo's eye is still messed up so he won't have that great court vision.

    EDIT: I also am kind of warming up to the Bobcats +8. Big let down spot after beating OKC last night for HOU. I mean how do you not overlook the Bobcats at home after beating the best team in the West? Bobcats looking to build off of their big win in New Orleans the other night. It's just so hard to bet on the Bobcats though because they are capable of being blown out by 30 pts every night. Anyone have any thoughts on the Bobkitties?
    Last edited by Speedy88; 03-14-12 at 06:08 PM.
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  11. 03-14-12 06:13 PM #11
    hawley
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    Boston has had a days rest what makes you think the warriors can run them off the court?
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  12. 03-14-12 06:18 PM #12
    Speedy88
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    All kinds of weird line movement today. I remember the few days leading up to the superbowl, Vegas set all kinds of traps with odd lines and odd line movement. Are we seeing the same thing today leading up to the NCAA tournament? Vegas and online sportsbooks gets all kinds of new betters right before the start of March Madness.

    Just look at some of these lines. Not saying they are sure plays because of the line movement, etc. But they are worth looking at.

    LAC moves from -6.5 to -7 with 70% on ATL. (-7 seems very high for a team that has been in a major slump)
    Spurs move from -6.5 to -7.5 with 65% on ORL.
    Kings move from -4.5 to -3.5 with 61% on DET.
    Hornets move from +5.5 to +4.5 with nearly 80% on the Lakers

    Newbie betters are going to lose their march madness bankroll before it even starts (it doesn't start for me until tomorrow, f*ck these "play in games")
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  13. 03-14-12 06:22 PM #13
    SteelRain
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    where are you guy getting your public % figures from?
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  14. 03-14-12 06:30 PM #14
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelRain View Post
    where are you guy getting your public % figures from?
    http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...-betting-chart
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  15. 03-14-12 06:35 PM #15
    YouHave2outs
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Also, what are everyone's thoughts on GS +4.5. I think there is some great value in GS here. I think people are underestimating this team without Monta.
    klay will play almost as well as monta and nate will play almost as well as curry, and we have some decent scrubs. it's not like boston is deep.
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  16. 03-14-12 06:38 PM #16
    Speedy88
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    As a Washington Husky fan, I fukkin hate that pot smoking Klay Thompson with a passion, but the guy can ball. Putting all those feeling aside, Klay can you please cash my Warriors +5 ticket. Thanks.
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  17. 03-14-12 06:58 PM #17
    therocket
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    Speaking of fading OT teams anyone else like the hornets +4.5. Seems like a typical laker let down spot on the road here. I imagine Kamen Plays a great "showcase" game as he is dying to get traded. I like NO to keep it close. I know it is not a RLM play but still fading the lakers on a b2b on the road after a tough double OT game. I'm taking the points here.

    BOL gents.
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  18. 03-14-12 07:50 PM #18
    PR9
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    Last night minutes for the Hawks

    Teague= 46mins
    Hinrich=40mins
    Pachulia=45mins
    Johnson= 41mins
    Smith= 36mins

    hmm, clippers 1st Q or 1st H ?? They really desperately want a win on this home stand, already 0-2.

    The Hawks played like total shit in that arena last month against the Lakers

    Only issue is Tony Brothers is reffing this game and we know how much he loves the road teams
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  19. 03-14-12 07:56 PM #19
    Speedy88
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    Quote Originally Posted by PR9 View Post
    Last night minutes for the Hawks

    Teague= 46mins
    Hinrich=40mins
    Pachulia=45mins
    Johnson= 41mins
    Smith= 36mins

    hmm, clippers 1st Q or 1st H ?? They really desperately want a win on this home stand, already 0-2.

    The Hawks played like total shit in that arena last month against the Lakers

    Only issue is Tony Brothers is reffing this game and we know how much he loves the road teams
    Wow, how did I not see Brothers on this game.....Oh well hopefully he decides to show some love to the home team this time. Agreed, a 1Q or a 1H bet looks good. Going to roll with 1H, Clipps played like sh*t in the 1st quarter the other night against the Celts.
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  20. 03-15-12 12:10 AM #20
    Speedy88
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    Both SA and LAC cover.
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  21. 03-15-12 12:11 AM #21
    PR9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Both SA and LAC cover.

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  22. 03-15-12 12:28 AM #22
    Avenger
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    Speedy, you've been on fire last several days. Everytime I read one of your posts, it seems to hit.

    Good job man!
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  23. 03-15-12 12:49 AM #23
    YouHave2outs
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  24. 03-15-12 12:50 AM #24
    YouHave2outs
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    nice hits tonight
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