[NHL Pro Capper]

In football, obviously -7.5 is 2 scores, and buying a point that does not cost a lot of juice is worth it to get it to -6.5. Now in basketball, if it's a close game, lets say SA is up by 3 or 4, does Houston int foul? Go for turnover?

I want to take Spurs tomm vs Houston, but the line is -5 @1.95 at Pinny, but I want to buy half a point for 5 cents to make it -4.5. I am tired of teams just bouncing the ball for the last 5-10 seconds, and the two teams hugging it up, and not playing till the last second when they are up by 4 or 5. That extra basket is usually the difference in a spread. -5, means i need 6 or more points to win, sick of pushes.

I do not know much about NBA strategy, so whats the best EV play for a team/coach to do when a team is down by 3 or 4 points? Is there a key number around 3,4,5 when its ok to buy a point or half a point? Is there a number that is somewhat irrelevant, like in football when the books change it to -3.5 to -5.5 where it looks good but doesn't really help the better?

What would you pay max for in terms of buying a half a point or 1 point?

Thanks,

[john230]

A lot of people think 7 is a key # because then it's a 3 possession game. Some teams will start fouling if they are down a decent amount, and some teams just seem to give up. I would not buy it form 5 to 4.5, but if I would buy it down from 4.5.

[NHL Pro Capper]

thx John

[RoadFavorites$$$]

No key numbers in basketball because sometimes teams won't even foul down by 2 and sometimes they foul down by 6 with 1 second left just to kill a line.

[cleaveland]

I'm comfortable with -3.5 because anything over 3 means it's a two possession game and teams always want that four point lead minimum at the end of a game. You often see a big sigh of relief when they get that 4 point lead. When it's a three point game with a few seconds left and a player is going to the line for two free throws the announcers will often say, "He just needs to make one of two" or something. Then, you see the first free throw go in and the entire team seems to relax a bit, that's their goal in a close game. Teams want it to be a two possession game minimum and that's what they aim for at the end in a close game so I don't mind -3.5 if it's the best I can get.

[starfire]

No key numbers in basketball

[NHL Pro Capper]

lol what? Why would they kill a line? They don't bet, or 99% don't if they want to keep their job, but why foul to kill a line?

So I am gathering at no point should you buy a half a point or point?

[john230]

No key numbers in basketball because sometimes teams won't even foul down by 2 and sometimes they foul down by 6 with 1 second left just to kill a line.

Team A has the rock up by 2 with 10 seconds left. Team B does not attempt to foul. Team B looking for a new coach.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

lol what? Why would they kill a line? They don't bet, or 99% don't if they want to keep their job, but why foul to kill a line?

So I am gathering at no point should you buy a half a point or point?

Not intentionally kill a line, but just for example, I believe the Clippers were down by 4 or 5 the other day against the Lakers and Blake Griffin fouled Gasol even though there was only 1.0 seconds left on the clock.

Gasol only hit one free throw, but what was the point of that foul? There was none.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Team A has the rock up by 2 with 10 seconds left. Team B does not attempt to foul. Team B looking for a new coach.

Well of course, but there are other situations that can happen. Maybe Team B is down by 3 and has 15 seconds left and dribbles most of it off and then chucks a hopeless 3 and forgets to foul and screws someone on -4 for team A. I've seen that kind of scenario happen hundreds of times.

[subs]

how much r u paying for the half point?

[NHL Pro Capper]

5 cents for half a point, my logic is

-4.5, 5 is a win,
but if its -5, 5 is a push, so what the hell is the point, and now i gotta have them win by 6 which seems a lot in a somewhat close game

I really don't know whats best. I just am trying to figure out spreads that are good to take

Like with NFL, i would never take a -7.5, but i jump on -6.5 and -2.5, or -9.5 for big favs, but not -10.5

So looking for the same kind of thing in B ball... are there spreads you just hate to bet but still do?

[NHL Pro Capper]

Opposite example, I LOVE Milwaukee at home +6.5 vs Heat tonight, if it was +5 i would never do it, or even +6, +6.5 seems perfect where heat can win it last few min, and cruise to a 4-5 point win... -5 seems like the worst spread to bet in BB

[cleaveland]

5 cents for half a point, my logic is

-4.5, 5 is a win,
but if its -5, 5 is a push, so what the hell is the point, and now i gotta have them win by 6 which seems a lot in a somewhat close game

I really don't know whats best. I just am trying to figure out spreads that are good to take

Like with NFL, i would never take a -7.5, but i jump on -6.5 and -2.5, or -9.5 for big favs, but not -10.5

So looking for the same kind of thing in B ball... are there spreads you just hate to bet but still do?

At most books you can get -3-150 on a -5-110 spread and I was just thinking that might be worth it if you're really confident the team you're taking will win a close game. Again, because of the logic I mentioned earlier with the team's always playing for at least a two possession game it could be worth it.

If you think about, taking a -150 favorite in baseball is no big deal if you're really confident in the play so why not consider it here?

[cleaveland]

Opposite example, I LOVE Milwaukee at home +6.5 vs Heat tonight, if it was +5 i would never do it, or even +6, +6.5 seems perfect where heat can win it last few min, and cruise to a 4-5 point win... -5 seems like the worst spread to bet in BB

If I were you I'd tease the two games to Spurs pick and Bucks +11.5 at -110 odds. I'm gonna be on the Heat pick for this one though.

[DrIn$entive]

I hate it when my wager on the fav -6.5 is up by 8 points with 4 seconds left in the game and they let the dog go in for an uncontested meaningless layup/dunk to end the game.

[YouHave2outs]

IS THERE A KEY NUMBER IN NBA

ask lta if he is kind enough to respond, and he usually is. from what i've read they are 2 and 7

[NHL Pro Capper]

I hate it when my wager on the fav -6.5 is up by 8 points with 4 seconds left in the game and they let the dog go in for an uncontested meaningless layup/dunk to end the game.

THAT IS EXACTLY what I am talking about, I want to know WHAT lead is considered safe?! So if they are up by 8 points, then they will start walking off the court with 5 sec left, and 9 players do the hommie hug, but there is always some stat guy wanting to jam home 2 points for whatever reason...., but if they are up by 4 then they play hard, so it would seem -4.5, -3.5 are GOOD because they are still 2 possesions, but it its -6.5 or -7.5, -8.5, they know they won the game and will let the opposing team do whatever.

MAYBE it's just better to bet 1st halfs? So they try the whole 2 quarters? Does the bench come in at any time during 1st half? What is a major difference in betting the 1st half vs whole game? Thx

[NHL Pro Capper]

The over/under too play into this, I bet on the Clippers and OKC over and with 10sec left, LAC up by like 12 and he just dribbles the ball in one spot for 15 sec while the opposing team walks off the court...was so mad, like SHOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT ShOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT!!!!!!! FK YOU $#%^ER

[subs]

-110 is 52.38%
-115 is 53.49%

difference is 1.11%. so u need to gain more than 1.11% to make it worth the extra 5c.

do u have a push chart handy? u will ned 1 for this sort of analysis., if not check out killersports. type: line = -5 and margin = 5. then type line = -5. divide the former number of games by the latter.

for instance the 5 is worth around 3.5% so getting on and off the 5 is worth 1.75%... totals will affect this.

it seems like buying through some numbers is good but obv not all. however it is not enough to make a -EV play into a +EV play in that it will not overcome the vig.

GL

[YouHave2outs]

^^ ya man, 2 and 7. you could have googled it. for in depth either google it more til you find your answer or ask lta if he is willing to respond. he is boss on totals

shouldnt it be easy to google or read a book about these things if it really interests you? you'd get way more out of it than any 3 sentence paragraph response on this site if you were lucky enough that a sharp gave you solid info (after u waited 9 days for the rsponse)

[subs]

read this http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...asketball.html

[subs]

lol @ 2.

and 7 is not anything special either

[john230]

The over/under too play into this, I bet on the Clippers and OKC over and with 10sec left, LAC up by like 12 and he just dribbles the ball in one spot for 15 sec while the opposing team walks off the court...was so mad, like SHOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT ShOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT!!!!!!! FK YOU $#%^ER

Pro Capper- every game is different. The knife cuts both ways. Sometimes a team a team will shoot the ball in that situation and sometimes not. Some coaches are more aggressive when it comes to fouling than others. I have seen teams down 7/8 points with a minute to go that do not foul. That's why I like to take the points. It sucks when the team you bet is celebrating a win, but you lose on a back door cover.

[FourLengthsClear]

It is worth buying any half point (on sides) in the NBA for 5 cents. Even the half points off 1.5 are worth around 6c.
It is not worth buying any half point in the NBA for 10 cents.

People talk a lot about 7 and the theory behind it sounds great. It is not backed up by the numbers however. A margin of victory of 7 is no more likely than 5 or 6 or 8 or 9.

[YouHave2outs]

lol @ 2. and 7 is not anything special either

maybe i was wrong. i don't look this stuff up and i bet for fun. i have followed LTAs thread and he says that 2 and 7 are the most common margins of victory in the nba (could certainlyl be wrong, i am not quoting LTA. he is way better than me, but i think he has mentioned these numbers). beyond spouting this off, i really have no clue. i should not be tailed in any sport. sorry if i had this wrong big guy

edit just looked it up and it is 5, 7, and 2 over the last 7 years. dunno why you chuckled so hard sir. it should also be mentioned there is not a huge difference between these and other numbers. 7 and 2 are 2/3 most common margins of victory though joker. you may as well have just posted that no margin is significant if 7 isnt, based on the numbers i saw.

[HoulihansTX]

The key numbers are 5 and 7.

[subs]

maybe i was wrong. i don't look this stuff up and i bet for fun. i have followed LTAs thread and he says that 2 and 7 are the most common margins of victory in the nba (could certainlyl be wrong, i am not quoting LTA. he is way better than me, but i think he has mentioned these numbers). beyond spouting this off, i really have no clue. i should not be tailed in any sport. sorry if i had this wrong big guy

edit just looked it up and it is 5, 7, and 2 over the last 7 years. dunno why you chuckled so hard sir. it should also be mentioned there is not a huge difference between these and other numbers. 7 and 2 are 2/3 most common margins of victory though joker. you may as well have just posted that no margin is significant if 7 isnt, based on the numbers i saw.

sorry dude - wasn't laughing at u. but at the number and the misinformation in another thread i was checking... no offence intended in any way. u r quite right about 7 being a good number, but i wouldn't call it or any other number key. maybe slightly better than other numbers.

best of luck to u sir.

houlihansTX - who is that man?

[HoulihansTX]

Ruler Of Bahrain Shaikh Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa

[subs]

^^ ya man, 2 and 7. you could have googled it. for in depth either google it more til you find your answer or ask lta if he is willing to respond. he is boss on totals

shouldnt it be easy to google or read a book about these things if it really interests you? you'd get way more out of it than any 3 sentence paragraph response on this site if you were lucky enough that a sharp gave you solid info (after u waited 9 days for the rsponse)

u know what's funny, i just rechecked that thread and u posted in it after i did. the funny thing is, since i'm in a laughing mood, is that i posted the numbers for the very spreads we are talking about and 4LC spelled it out nicely for every1.

u don't always need google, u just need to remember good info when u see it

[subs]

interesting avatar - is he a good guy? or, like the rest, just a puppet the west allows to keep the oil flowing for them?

interesting that he allows such a massive US military base there, no? why do u like him, i'm curious?

[HoulihansTX]

interesting avatar - is he a good guy? or, like the rest, just a puppet the west allows to keep the oil flowing for them?

Has been linked to the Taliban, meets non-violent protests with violence on a daily basis, and is on the US payroll since he allows them to keep one of the largest foreign US naval bases on his island.

[subs]

shouldn't have edited my post.

he sounds like a dick, hope he's not ur hero or anything. just the weirdest avatar picture, thought u were going to defend him or something...

[HoulihansTX]

Of course he is not my hero, lol. I'm doing a debate on whether the US should increase their democracy assistance( in other words money) to countries who have seen democratic revolutions recently. Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, and Lybia are other examples.

[subs]

i think the US has both sides covered don't u? why bet on 1 side when u can hedge for equal profit?

where the debate, sounds interesting? i'm not sure that u can compare lybia with egypt as the "rebels" in lybia were US proxy and the protesters in egypt were popular nationalists?