Books listed Dallas as a $1.45 (Bet $145 to win $100) favorite to win the NBA Finals, with Miami catching a $1.25 (Bet $100 to win $125) price as an underdog. It seemed like a logical price at the right time, with both clubs entering the championship round on a roll.
Prior to the finals, oddsmaker Jeremy Ryan of Sportsbook.com explained, “The Mavericks do have homecourt advantage and appear to be the better all-around team heading into the finals.”
After winning the first two games of the series in double-digit fashion, the Mavericks were listed as high as $6.00 favorites (Bet $600 to win $100) to clinch the finals.
One week to the day after falling to a 2-0 deficit, the Heat have rebounded with two straight victories and the spotlight of doubt has switched focus on the Mavericks.
Does Dallas have anything left in the tank?
Blowing a 13-point lead in Game 3 apparently stuck with Dallas in Game 4 on Thursday, as Miami carried its momentum from the third game into the fourth with a solid 54-point first half. The Heat kept their lead in the second half and clamped down defensively, holding the Mavs to 30 points, including just seven in the fourth quarter. The blowout was never in doubt, with Pat Riley’s club squaring the series at 2-2 with a 98-74 victory.
The 74-point effort by Dallas was the lowest output offensively of the playoffs and the second lowest of the entire season. The Mavs posted 71 in an April 19 loss to the L.A. Clippers , but even they were without All Star Dirk Nowitzki due to an injury.
It seemed like Nowitzki was missing once again, finished with 16 points on a dreadful 2-of-14 performance from the floor. Nowitzki wasn’t the only one missing the bucket. Dallas shot 32 percent from the field, including a pathetic 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point land.
Is it a case of missed open jumpers or good defense? Perhaps a little bit of both. Head coach Avery Johnson and company averaged 46 percent from the field during the regular season, yet have only been able to leap that number once (Game 3, 48%) in this series and they lost too.
A change of scenery certainly has made a difference for both attacks, especially Miami’s offense. After posting a combined 165 points (80, 85) in the two setbacks, the Heat have dropped 98 points in back-to-back fashion on their homecourt.
The team shot a series-high 51 percent in Game 4’s victory, plus added 23 free throws, which was also a series high. Anytime you shoot that well and your opponent doesn’t, you can almost guarantee a double-digit win.
The $25,000 question remains, “What happens in Game 5?”
Miami opened as a two-point favorite for its final home playoff game at American Airlines Arena on Sunday, with the total sitting at 188. I expected the number to be a tad higher with the Mavericks Jerry Stackhouse getting a one-game suspension for a flagrant foul on Shaquille O’Neal in Thursday’s contest.
Still, one would understand that a sudden bump would get serious action on Dallas. Plus, the public was all over the Mavericks in Game 4 – Dallas opened as a two-point underdog and closed as a one-point favorite, a big three-point swing. The underdog/under combination is always nice for the book.
“If Miami wins and takes a 3-2 lead back to Dallas with two to play, I would expect to see a series price close to pick’em,” added Ryan. “If the Mavs get off the snide and go up, then you’re looking at another heavy price, probably around a 6/1 favorite.”
Game 5 gives both Dallas and Miami an extra day to prepare for the swing game in South Beach. Normally, you would expect this to favor the older team in the Heat. However, Riley’s squad has struggled and often appeared rusty with multi-day breaks. On two days rest, the team is 12-7 SU and 7-12 ATS on the season.
Two days is the measuring stick for Game 5, but more than two days is just as bad. Game 1, the Heat had three full days before meeting Dallas – they lose. Game 2 offers two days rest and another loss. However, the third and fourth installments have been played with just one day in between.
Unfortunately for Miami, Game 5 should’ve and probably could’ve been played Saturday. Isn’t that what the 2-3-2 format was for? If you look below, you can see that Miami's performance has taken a serious dive in the postseason on breaks of two days or more.
MIAMI'S PLAYOFF RECORD ON TWO DAYS OR MORE REST
Date Opponent Line Total Result ATS
Apr 22 Chicago -9 194.5 Won 111 - 106 Lost / Over
Apr 27 @ Chicago -1.5 199.5 Lost 90 - 109 Lost / Under
Apr 30 @ Chicago -3 201 Lost 87 - 93 Lost / Under
May 8 New Jersey -4.5 189.5 Lost 88 - 100 Lost / Under
May 23 @ Detroit +5.5 188 Won 91 - 86 Win / Under
Jun 8 @ Dallas +5.5 194 Lost 80 - 90 Lost / Under
Jun 11 @ Dallas +4.5 189 Lost 85 - 99 Lost / Under
June 18 Dallas -2 188 ??? ???
Total 2-5 SU 1-6 ATS
Dallas on the other hand has been real sharp on two days rest, going 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS. Maybe that’s another reason Johnson yanked his team out of the Four Seasons on Ocean Drive and moved them to an undisclosed location 45 minutes outside of Miami.
This game is as big as it gets for both teams and the action starts at 9:00 p.m. EST on ABC.
Game 6 is slated for Tuesday from American Airlines Center.
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