Originally Posted by
Love The Action
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/18/2012
Play #1
Nuggets/Sixers over (199) 1.5x (Locked)
I am not sure why the books are setting this matchup so low and that makes me a little leery. I have this game set at 205.5, over 5 points more than the opener and over 6 points of variance between the number I got and my model. Pinny is currently at 200 but juicing the under at -110 (which is like -120 at other books) and 5D is sitting at 199.5. When my local opened up at 199, I did not hesitate and I might add more after the ref assignments are released for only my second multi-unit play of the year (we cashed our sole 2x play on the first day of the season on the Bulls). I think the books are keeping this one in the 200 range because both teams play solid defense. However, Denver just played last night and is on a b2b, while Philly has not played the caliber of Denver's offense except in their opening game loss to Portland. Consequently, I think this one turns into an offensive, fast-paced game as opposed to a defensive struggle. If you look at the advanced stats, these are two of the deepest and most efficient offenses in the NBA today. Both teams go 8 deep or more in quality players that can put the ball in the hoop. In addition, both offenses generally play at a faster pace than their opponents with Denver ranking 1st and Philly 8th in PACE. With Denver and Philly ranked top 5 in OEFF, EFG% and TS%, against one tired defense and another that might be a bit overrated, and I think the over is the right play here. Denver is on a b2b, but had a day off before the two game stretch started and Philly had the day off yesterday. However, Philly's SOS which determines strenght of schedule is rated at -4.02, which is the second easiest schedule in the NBA to date. That means that Philly's dominating defensive numbers have been produced against weak offensive teams like Toronto, Detroit and NO. Consequently, I think the fast paced and highly efficient offense of Denver can put up some points against this Philly defense. However, I don't think you can point to the weak SOS as a reason for Philly's offense to be overrated because putting the ball in the hoop is not an easy thing to do, yet the also do it very efficiently. With the depth of both teams, we shouldn't see a marked dropoff in production when the reserves come in at the start of the second quarter or end of the 3rd and I expect a fast-paced game with consistent scoring throughout by both teams. In the past four matchups between these teams, none has been set lower than 207. I think the books are going lower today because of the defensive numbers of Philly. However, because I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent based on the weak SOS, I just can't set this game that low. Because I have this game set at 205.5, I am going to step out a bit and roll with the over for 1.5x right now. If the ref assignments are favorable to the over, I will make this a 2x play as long as I can get 200 or less. Good luck.