1. 05-27-11 01:53 PM #1
    Dad
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    Heat had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 3:14 left

    According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the Heat had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 3:14 left:

    Including the regular season, the Chicago Bulls were 53-0 when leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter. So, with only 3:14 remaining in Game 5, and the Bulls leading by 12 points a win appeared all but certain.

    The Miami Heat had other plans though, finishing the game on an 18-3 run to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history.

    According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the Heat had just a 1 percent chance of winning the game with 3:14 remaining.

    Read more: http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/pos...ve-to-win-east
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  2. 05-27-11 02:01 PM #2
    ngates815
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    Dallas, the other night had a .7% chance of winning when they were down 15 or whatever against OKC. Yes I was on OKC, unhappy.

    Last night I was on Heat ML.


    Very happy to be on the other side of luck.
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  3. 05-27-11 02:15 PM #3
    jjgold
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    Interesting

    Common denominator both teasm that collapsed had real young guys
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  4. 05-27-11 02:16 PM #4
    WeinketoWarrick
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    I was on the Thunder...that one was definitely worse...
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  5. 05-27-11 02:26 PM #5
    Iwinyourmoney
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    Just shows what this Miami team is capable of
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  6. 05-27-11 03:09 PM #6
    boondoggle
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    People who bet real money on playoffs....should not be upset when it goes bye bye.
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  7. 05-27-11 03:26 PM #7
    dudekid
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    actually, B Lang was on the bulls so there was at least a 97% chance the heat would be winning
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  8. 05-27-11 03:27 PM #8
    the_situation
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    was on Thunder and Bulls....
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  9. 05-27-11 03:29 PM #9
    FreeFall
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    Young teams were really given up it seems.

    Not to mention a four point play with made FT and a consecutive 3 isn't a high probabliity of happening
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  10. 05-27-11 03:40 PM #10
    eidolon
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    Maybe Lebron has turned a new leaf and is performing in the playoffs.
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  11. 05-27-11 04:10 PM #11
    darkghost
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_situation View Post
    was on Thunder and Bulls....
    Same.
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  12. 05-27-11 04:15 PM #12
    BRAVES1985
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    refs called a great series


    stern had nothin to do with this series


    bosh is a bitch
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  13. 05-27-11 04:35 PM #13
    doublej95
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    it was an impressive comeback.
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  14. 05-27-11 04:44 PM #14
    Whippit
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    wooly bullies had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 48:00 left

    then again with 0:00 left

    dad, my simulations show we need more accutitty & accuheiny
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  15. 05-27-11 04:44 PM #15
    Git Lo
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    Also Chicago was 53-0 when Up 10+ points with 3 minutes left. Heat have shattered a lot of records this year, next year its going to be a massacre.
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  16. 05-27-11 04:53 PM #16
    thezbar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Git Lo View Post
    Also Chicago was 53-0 when Up 10+ points with 3 minutes left. Heat have shattered a lot of records this year, next year its going to be a massacre.
    They get some guard and board help in the off season they will be very strong next season.
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  17. 05-27-11 04:59 PM #17
    dj_destroyer
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    Bosh is sick. Wade is sick. James is sick.

    Heat win 5 rings in the next 8 years.
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  18. 05-27-11 05:05 PM #18
    suicidekings
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    Bulls entering the 4Q with a 5+ point lead in 2010

    The lead with 3:14 is very arbitrary. However this is a more realistic game situation to compare.
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  19. 05-27-11 05:16 PM #19
    k13
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    Bulls had 1% chance to win this series.
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  20. 05-27-11 05:16 PM #20
    panik
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    Was on Bulls last night, good thing I only had 30 POINTS in them.
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  21. 05-27-11 05:19 PM #21
    Karim
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    Game 5
    Pick: Chicago (-3) Result: 12 Point lead with 3.14 left, but lost obv.
    Stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.93
    Game 5
    Pick:     Oklahoma ML Result: 15 points with 5 mins to go
    Stake: 2/10 Odds: 3.72
    Game 4
    Pick: Chicago ML Result: overtime, then bustout
    Stake: 1/10 Odds: 2.94



    yoyo , at least i can tell my grandchilds about that.
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  22. 05-27-11 06:18 PM #22
    bureK
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    Bosh was sick because Boozer is a loser. Not happening vs Dallas.
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  23. 05-27-11 06:24 PM #23
    JR007
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    i WOULD NOT PUT TOO MUCH CREDENCE IN ACCURESCORE...THEY AND THE DUNKEL INDEX....ARE OK FOR REFERENCE.....BUT
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  24. 05-27-11 07:05 PM #24
    sneak-a-peak
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    i had 5dimes live betting up at the time and you could of gotten mia +10.5 -110 and ML was+2750. some people were betting bulls ML at that time at -5500 because it ended up at -6000......

    boy how would you like to be those poor sorry people today?

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  25. 05-27-11 07:09 PM #25
    durito
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    pinny moved from -10,000 to -30,000 10k limits. someone drop a mil?
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  26. 05-27-11 08:34 PM #26
    d2bets
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    12 point lead @ 3:14? I think 1% is probably too high. It was literally almost a perfect storm. If Miami had just scored a 2 point basket every time down they probably would have lost. Their 7 possessions in that last 3:14 resulted in:
    1. 2 points
    2. 2 points
    3. 3 points
    4. 4 points
    5. 3 points
    6. 2 points
    7. 2 points

    They scored on 7 straight possessions, 18 points. If they had just scored 2 points every possession they probably lose. 3-3 on 3's, 3-3 on 2's and 3-4 FT's. That is truly incredible to say the least. How often do you see 18 points in 7 possessions?
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  27. 05-27-11 08:41 PM #27
    TheGambler
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    between that and the Thunder the other night, my balance suffered greatly
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  28. 05-28-11 09:16 PM #28
    poochiecollins
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    The simulations might be using all the right assumptions.
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