[Pap45murF]

Howdy howdy. I had a system thread a while ago, but I follow a different system now... which is a complex mixture of my brain, dumb luck, a coin flip, and a bag of nachos. Plus, this helps me keep track of my failures with pinpoint accuracy.

Saturday Thoughts

Grizzlies: I like to follow the helpful betting advice of "Cap your games 5 days in advance, then come back it and make slight alterations for injuries the day of the game." This helps you to keep from getting too hung up on recent performances. The world will assume the Pacers are now a Chicago beating caliber team, completely disregarding the fact that the Pacers also lost to the Raptors just 5 games prior.

As such, I would love to bet on the Grizzlies at home here, but the line is a tad overblown for me. I generally only bet favorites if the line is between -3 and -7. This keeps me away from coin flip games (-1's and -2's) and keeps me away from double digit favorites, which is always a terrible bet.

I can't work a parlay or teaser to my liking, so I'm passing on this game.


Portland: IMO, 2 evenly matched teams, except the Blazers are just as good at home as the 76ers are terrible on the road. And with Iguodala out, I would love to bet Portland on this one. But unfortunately, I can't pull the trigger on -6.5. I'm thinking with 2 decent defenses, it will end up being like a 95-90 game.


So onto my...

Saturday Picks



Pick: Hornets +5 / Under 180 Parlay

For those of you going "Huh?" I like to play Teasers and adjust the line by 3 points or so, and I end up essentially getting 3 point teasers for +160 or so payout.

The Reasoning:

-the last 3 road games for the Celtics have been losses to non-elite teams (Rockets, Nets, and 76ers).

-Celtics are on a B2B against a well rested Hornets and Rondo has been in a slump

-as far as the Total goes, in order for the game to go Over, either both teams would have to score around 90+ or one team would have to have a breakout 100+ game. And since every team that plays Boston ends up with around 85 points and Boston's last 3 road scores have been 77, 79, and 86... Under seems like the smart bet.



Let's get a first post win, or else I'll lose confidence and start whoring myself on street corners for bits of string.

[Pap45murF]

Saturday Picks



Pick: Hornets +5 / Under 180 Parlay

For those of you going "Huh?" I like to play Teasers and adjust the line by 3 points or so, and I end up essentially getting 3 point teasers for +160 or so payout.


Let's get a first post win, or else I'll lose confidence and start whoring myself on street corners for bits of string.

Good start. Feels good when the 3 point alteration actually turns a would-be loss into a win. Should have bet on the other leans, too.


Record: 1-0
Units: +1.6

[GarbageMan]

Nice start mate, sound reasoning behind yo picks

[M.W.]

All right -- you made it work for you. Congrats.

I had Celtics team total under 89.5 for a real nail-biter, along with a loser on NO +1.5.

[Pap45murF]

Sunday's Picks


Pick: Knicks -2

Yes, I have the same pick as the rest of the world. But sometimes the public is right. It's either going to go 1 of 2 ways. Knicks will show up in their "Why did we trade for Carmello again?" mode and look like a dismal team against a solid Bucks team. Or they will show up and win by double digits.

The Bucks have a good defense, but there are some teams that offensively, you can't contain when they're hot: The Nuggets, the Rockets, and the Knicks. It's very unlikely that Carmello will get held to single digit points 2 nights in a row, which should push the Knicks score around 110, a number which the Bucks will struggle to match.




Pick: T-Wolves -4

It's a clash of 2 terrible teams. But Minnesota is a much better "terrible team" than the Kings. They average around 100 points a game and generally only lose to good teams by a couple of points. Whereas the Kings rely entirely on Cousins and lost to the Cavs...

Last time the 2 played in Minnesota, the Kings pulled 117 out of their ass and won by a point. I'm betting on the probability that that won't happen again.

[Pap45murF]

Taking Knicks -3 for the 2nd half. People are so focused on that first quarter that they don't realize that that kind of performance can't be maintained for an entire game. Knicks will start shooting better and Bucks will stop hitting everything they put up.

[Pap45murF]

Greeeeat. I had the "Why did we trade for Carmello again?" scenario AND the Kings having the best game of their life happen on the same day. Plus Love went and got himself injured, giving the Wolves zero chance at a comeback.

I remember why I stopped posting on here. Because you have to announce your bad days publicly.

(Probably shouldn't have taken that halftime bet)

Record: 1-3
Units: -1.4

[Pap45murF]

Alright, I can't just stop posting because I had the most horrible betting day ever. There's still some value in this, even if that value is to fade me. I assume my role as Brandon Lang. Let us continue.

Monday's Picks

All parlays with adjusted lines (mini-teasers). I should probably stop these and just do spreads, but the payout is too tasty for a teaser.

Celtics -1 / Kings +18 Parlay

The Celtics because the line is too tempting for a team this good against a team still struggling to beat mediocre teams. Only bought it half a point to -1 instead of pk because it pays more money against an unlikely 1 point win.

And the Kings adjusted to +18 because no team should be given an 18 point lead in the NBA. No Boozer and the Bulls aren't looking for revenge or anything. They'll likely play their bench if they get a double digit lead.

Pacers -1 / Spurs -8 Parlay

I really did want to adjust the Nets line to +6, but the more I tried to convince myself to do it, the more I realized reasons not to. The Nets are without Williams and the Pacers are clinging to the last playoff spot. The -1 instead of pk is the same as above.

And the Spurs because the team with an unstoppable home game should have no trouble routing the lowly Warriors.

[Pap45murF]

Alright, I can't just stop posting because I had the most horrible betting day ever. There's still some value in this, even if that value is to fade me. I assume my role as Brandon Lang. Let us continue.

Monday's Picks

All parlays with adjusted lines (mini-teasers). I should probably stop these and just do spreads, but the payout is too tasty for a teaser.

Celtics -1 / Kings +18 Parlay

The Celtics because the line is too tempting for a team this good against a team still struggling to beat mediocre teams. Only bought it half a point to -1 instead of pk because it pays more money against an unlikely 1 point win.

And the Kings adjusted to +18 because no team should be given an 18 point lead in the NBA. No Boozer and the Bulls aren't looking for revenge or anything. They'll likely play their bench if they get a double digit lead.



Pacers -1 / Spurs -8 Parlay

I really did want to adjust the Nets line to +6, but the more I tried to convince myself to do it, the more I realized reasons not to. The Nets are without Williams and the Pacers are clinging to the last playoff spot. The -1 instead of pk is the same as above.

And the Spurs because the team with an unstoppable home game should have no trouble routing the lowly Warriors.

Well, I guess some teams DO need a +18 handicap... cmon Kings, you let them score 132, really?

Well, hit 1 out of 2 parlays... and since they pay about +180 a piece, I'm up +0.8 units on the day. Of course if I had just played spreads, I'd be 3-1 today. So I think I'll lay off the parlays for a while.

Record: 2-4
Units: -0.6

[Pap45murF]

Yep, I'm going against my own advice again and doing more mini-teasers today. On a side note... I wish the Lakers and the Suns were both playing today. Would have been an easy call on the opponent from the sheer exhaustion angle. But Lakers are off and the Suns are home against the Raptors, so technically they are also off.

Wednesday's Picks

Pacers +4 / Spurs +8 Parlay

Pacers is a no brainer. I have no idea why the Bobcats would be favored against any team that isn't in high school. I just wish I'd gotten to the line earlier before it moved so much.

And the Spurs are a completely solid team all around, even without Duncan. They may still lose to a hot Denver team, but getting 8 points is a lot for the best team in the NBA.

Heat -6 / Grizzlies +9 Parlay

The Heat generally blow out every team they face by around 10-15 points. And the Pistons are about as terrible as a team can get. They're in the same category as the Cavs IMO.

The Grizzles, along with the Suns, are one of the most underrated teams out there. They can beat any team they play. And though they aren't as good on the road, games in Boston usually have team scores in the 85-90 margin. So the low scoring on both sides should help keep Memphis from getting blown out. Plus the last few times these teams have faced, the Grizzlies have won outright.

[Pap45murF]

Yep, I'm going against my own advice again and doing more mini-teasers today. On a side note... I wish the Lakers and the Suns were both playing today. Would have been an easy call on the opponent from the sheer exhaustion angle. But Lakers are off and the Suns are home against the Raptors, so technically they are also off.

Wednesday's Picks

Pacers +4 / Spurs +8 Parlay

Pacers is a no brainer. I have no idea why the Bobcats would be favored against any team that isn't in high school. I just wish I'd gotten to the line earlier before it moved so much.

And the Spurs are a completely solid team all around, even without Duncan. They may still lose to a hot Denver team, but getting 8 points is a lot for the best team in the NBA.



Heat -6 / Grizzlies +9 Parlay

The Heat generally blow out every team they face by around 10-15 points. And the Pistons are about as terrible as a team can get. They're in the same category as the Cavs IMO.

The Grizzles, along with the Suns, are one of the most underrated teams out there. They can beat any team they play. And though they aren't as good on the road, games in Boston usually have team scores in the 85-90 margin. So the low scoring on both sides should help keep Memphis from getting blown out. Plus the last few times these teams have faced, the Grizzlies have won outright.

-ish

Well... went as expected. Thanks to about 5 last second missed Heat free throws, the 2nd parlay resulted in a push of sorts. But I was still paid for the Grizzlies part of the bet. So I got my unit back plus another 0.6 units. I'm counting it as a win since I was awarded money for the bet.


Record: 4-4
Units: +1.6 units

[Pap45murF]

Friday's Picks

It's a day of really good teams playing at home against really bad teams. Which means it's a day of double digit favorites, which I never play. So let's look at some decent single digit games.



Pick: Pacers -6

If you take out the 127 point game that the Kings had that people seemed to be focused on, the Kings have been averaging low 90's at best. While the Pacers are still in high hopes, at home, and averaging 100+.
(Predicted Score: 110-95)


Cavs +8 / Suns -3 Parlay

This is the "don't really expect to win" parlay. But I couldn't pass up a 1.5 line movement in the Pistons direction, when in reality, the Cavs play every sub .500 team down to the wire and usually only end up losing by 3 or 4 points in OT.

And the Hornets beat the Suns 95-100 not too long ago, but this time the game is in Phoenix and Nash is back in full swing. And while the Hornets are struggling to beat the Jazz, the Suns were a basket away from beating the Lakers. Plus, West is out for the season after last night's ACL tear.


Grizzlies +12 / Spurs +7 Parlay

I've stated my opinion for the Grizzlies being the most underrated team before, and it seems they still are. They may win another big game outright.

And I know the Spurs struggle to win in Portland, but they only need to not lose by 7.

[Pap45murF]

Friday's Picks

It's a day of really good teams playing at home against really bad teams. Which means it's a day of double digit favorites, which I never play. So let's look at some decent single digit games.



Pick: Pacers -6

If you take out the 127 point game that the Kings had that people seemed to be focused on, the Kings have been averaging low 90's at best. While the Pacers are still in high hopes, at home, and averaging 100+.
(Predicted Score: 110-95)




Cavs +8 / Suns -3 Parlay

This is the "don't really expect to win" parlay. But I couldn't pass up a 1.5 line movement in the Pistons direction, when in reality, the Cavs play every sub .500 team down to the wire and usually only end up losing by 3 or 4 points in OT.

And the Hornets beat the Suns 95-100 not too long ago, but this time the game is in Phoenix and Nash is back in full swing. And while the Hornets are struggling to beat the Jazz, the Suns were a basket away from beating the Lakers. Plus, West is out for the season after last night's ACL tear.




Grizzlies +12 / Spurs +7 Parlay

I've stated my opinion for the Grizzlies being the most underrated team before, and it seems they still are. They may win another big game outright.

And I know the Spurs struggle to win in Portland, but they only need to not lose by 7.

Pacers: Wow. Well, I pretty much got the score right, only reversed. I'm staying away from Kings and Pacer games for a while. Neither team is very consistent.

Grizzlies: Like I said, never underestimate this team.

Spurs: Even if the Spurs don't win, they never lose big.

Cavs: Feels good to be right about the Cavs.

Suns: What. The fukk. Up by 6 or 7 the ENTIRE game. 2 minutes left in the 4th... whoops! Just let them score as much as they want.


-Once again another day that I would be up units if I would just go straight picks

Record: 5-6
Units: +1.1 units

[Pap45murF]

Saturday's Picks

The 3 teams I like today are the Pacers, Knicks, and Mavericks. And since I vowed to lay off the Pacers for a while, the choice was easy.


Mavs -4 / Knicks -3 Parlay

The Mavs are starting a road series after a rest, and they are one of the best road teams in the NBA. Utah has been putting up some high scores lately, but as far as I can tell Harris and Kirilenko are both out for today, and Dallas has a solid defense.

And the Knicks (NO NOT THE KNICKS!)... yes everyone hates them right now, and wants to fade them out of anger. But compare the scores of the 2 teams. Charlotte's last 5 have been 78, 82, 98, 88, 83. So it's not that they played any better than usual to beat the Celtics, it's just that the Celtics scored less than 83. Now look at the Knicks' last 5. 95, 95, 86, 99, 96. The Knicks are going to put up their usual 95-100 and the Bobcats will put up their usual 85, and the world will go "Ohhh the Knicks are back!" even though it's just business as usual. Oh... and plus... it's the FRIGGIN BOBCATS.

[Pap45murF]

Why why why!?!? I swear the other teams read my picks to get fired up before the game, because everytime I make a pick, the terrible team goes on a 30-0 run in one of the quarters. Case in point: the Kings yesterday and the Bobcats today. You could study this matchup a year in advance and no statistics anywhere would predict a Bobcat 65 point 1st half.

New parlay: Bulls -3 / Mavs -4

Bulls have historically destroyed the Bucks even when playing in Milwaukee. And with the Bulls recent hot streak, 3 points doesn't seem like much. Of course with the way things are going I might as well play a Bucks -10 / Utah -10 parlay and be safer.

*Note* I could've just went Bulls ML / Mavs ML and gotten back to even with a -120 payout. But I'm all about ending ahead. +170 payout would put me up half a unit.

[Pap45murF]

Well, after the Knicks sh!t the bed, my backup parlay came through... but I don't feel happy about it. Both teams were behind the entire game until 15 point runs late in the 4th quarter. I'm sure a lot of dog backers are pissed. I'm just taking it as payback for yesterday's Pacers game.

Record: 6-7
Units: +1.8

[Pap45murF]

Tuesday's Picks

Rockets -4 / Over 202 Parlay

Apparently the rest of the world agrees with me on the Rockets, so I'm locking this in before the line moves. The Rockets will play their usual fast paced, high scoring game and end up with about 110-115 points. The injured and "nothing to play for" Nets will keep pace until the 4th quarter and end up with around 90-95.

And I liked the Over so much that I stared at it for too long thinking it was a trick... and then the line moved 1.5 points so I bought a few points and grabbed a 202. The Nets are having their first game back home after a brutal road trip and should put up at least 90 in familiar territory. Lopez will probably get 30 of that himself.

And the Rockets just gave the Heat a run for their money and should have no trouble nailing at least 110, seeing as how every position matchup except for Lopez/Hayes is lopsided in the Rockets favor.



I'm also looking at the Cavs spread. If it moves past +14 tomorrow, I may add a few more points and take it. It's a better Cavs team, who are still secretly hoping for revenge (the fans anyways, and the players are aware of this). To quote Baron Davis, "We're not going to be laughing and joking," said Davis, who added he has a good relationship with James. "Ain't going to be a lot of smiles."

[Pap45murF]

Well sh!t. Seeing as how I suck at Totals to begin with, the fact that the Rockets Total has plummeted back down to 202.5 makes me a worried panda. I still feel good about getting in on the early spread, but the Over may screw me.

Also, the Cavs moved to +14.5 so I bumped it up a few points and added:


Cavs +18 / Suns -1 Parlay

Like I said, the Cavs are better equipped than before and still secretly want this for the fans. It all depends on how the Heat respond when they get a 15 point lead in the 4th. Will they bench the top 3 and rest them for playoffs or is Lebron still trying to make a point?

And I went against all the "sharp money" and stuck with my gut on the Suns. The only reason the Suns haven't been winning lately is because Nash has been in a slump, scoring only 9 points in his last 2 games. All it takes is for Nash to get his groove back and the recently lucky Kings team will look like themselves again.


-Sidenote- I still do not understand the complete math failure with these books. If you do a 4 point teaser, it generally pays -110 or so. But if you do a parlay and adjust both lines by 4 points, it pays +120 or so. The exact same thing with better payout. Maybe there's a difference in what happens if there's a tie, but last time I tied one of these parlays, they just treated it as a SU bet with the remaining line. And I guess maybe teasers refund your whole original bet? That's a deal if I ever saw one.

[Pap45murF]

Tuesday's Picks

Rockets -4 / Over 202 Parlay

Apparently the rest of the world agrees with me on the Rockets, so I'm locking this in before the line moves. The Rockets will play their usual fast paced, high scoring game and end up with about 110-115 points. The injured and "nothing to play for" Nets will keep pace until the 4th quarter and end up with around 90-95.

And I liked the Over so much that I stared at it for too long thinking it was a trick... and then the line moved 1.5 points so I bought a few points and grabbed a 202. The Nets are having their first game back home after a brutal road trip and should put up at least 90 in familiar territory. Lopez will probably get 30 of that himself.

And the Rockets just gave the Heat a run for their money and should have no trouble nailing at least 110, seeing as how every position matchup except for Lopez/Hayes is lopsided in the Rockets favor.

199. Ouch. I was one 3 point shot off. Don't really know why I played a Total, I'm no good at them. Cavs are doing pretty good, so my day rests completely on the Suns... the team that every sharp said to go against.

[Pap45murF]

Sigh. And Phoenix pulled what I'm going to start calling a "Suns."

Up by 8 the whole game. Blow it in the 4th. The Suns specialty.

I'm tired of this whole, "My team is up by tons, nope, I still lost" sport that is the NBA. In the NFL, if you're team is up by 21 points at the half, you can pretty much change the channel. I'm going to play a few NBA games tomorrow, then probably switch over to MLB.

If only I could lay off the parlays, I'd have a positive record.

[Pap45murF]

Wednesday's Picks

Alright. If I'm going out today, I'm going out in flames. 3 of these m0therfukkers. Let's do it.


Cavs +13 / Rockets +6 Parlay

The Cavs beat the Heat and still come out as double digit dogs to the friggin Bobcats? No they're not tired from trying hard, they're riding on a wave of good feelings and teamwork. The Cavs are the champions of backdoor covers.

And most people are on the 76ers at home. But you CANNOT stop the Rockets offense... even Boston could only slow it down. Houston will hit their usual 110, and although Philly may win, I don't see them hitting the 115+ to ruin my +6.


Mavs -3 / Thunder ML Parlay

I've heard good argument that the Mavs will overlook this game in anticipation of the Lakers tomorrow. But IMO they will only overlook this game until they're in the game and losing. Then the Mavs will step up and play their usual glorious self and beat the Clippers by the usual large amount they usual do.

I held off on the Suns/Thunder game in hopes that the Suns line would continue moving drastically. It hit +4 and I was going to make it +7... until I realized my entire bet was on line movement alone. So I jumped on the obvious beatdown bandwagon with everyone else. I just hope this isn't the one time that the Suns DON'T fall apart.


Hornets +4 / Over 179

This one was a coin flip game to me. So I gave the home team a +4 cushion. And I hate Totals but this number baffles me. Originally 182. Both Portland and the Hornets have 100 point games every other week. there's no reason to see this game as a 90-88 defense battle.


If I can hit 2 of 3 today, that will be the proper farewell before focusing on MLB. If I suck hot donkey balls, I'll probably angrily chase until I make up for it.

[Pap45murF]

It appears there is some kind of conspiracy against me on my last day of betting. The Rockets were cruising along, set for a victory for me, then they score 6 points over 8 minutes in the 4th.

Now the Hornets game is looking all set for a cash... until Portland decides to score 5 points over 7 minutes in the 4th and blow my Over.

...But wait, as I write this there is an explosion of point scoring in the game. Guess I'll suspend hope a little longer. My betting style pays out like this:

3-0 - +4.5 units
2-1 - +2 units
1-2 - -0.5 units
0-3 - -3 units

So even 1 victory would make my day here. All I need is 2 more points fellas, let's do this.

[Pap45murF]

Wednesday's Picks

Alright. If I'm going out today, I'm going out in flames. 3 of these m0therfukkers. Let's do it.


Cavs +13 / Rockets +6 Parlay

The Cavs beat the Heat and still come out as double digit dogs to the friggin Bobcats? No they're not tired from trying hard, they're riding on a wave of good feelings and teamwork. The Cavs are the champions of backdoor covers.

And most people are on the 76ers at home. But you CANNOT stop the Rockets offense... even Boston could only slow it down. Houston will hit their usual 110, and although Philly may win, I don't see them hitting the 115+ to ruin my +6.


Mavs -3 / Thunder ML Parlay

I've heard good argument that the Mavs will overlook this game in anticipation of the Lakers tomorrow. But IMO they will only overlook this game until they're in the game and losing. Then the Mavs will step up and play their usual glorious self and beat the Clippers by the usual large amount they usual do.

I held off on the Suns/Thunder game in hopes that the Suns line would continue moving drastically. It hit +4 and I was going to make it +7... until I realized my entire bet was on line movement alone. So I jumped on the obvious beatdown bandwagon with everyone else. I just hope this isn't the one time that the Suns DON'T fall apart.


Hornets +4 / Over 179

This one was a coin flip game to me. So I gave the home team a +4 cushion. And I hate Totals but this number baffles me. Originally 182. Both Portland and the Hornets have 100 point games every other week. there's no reason to see this game as a 90-88 defense battle.


If I can hit 2 of 3 today, that will be the proper farewell before focusing on MLB. If I suck hot donkey balls, I'll probably angrily chase until I make up for it.

So the only thing keeping me from a perfect last day was the collapse of the supernova that is the Houston offense. Fantastic. Profit is profit, I guess. And it felt good to finally be on the other side of the 4th quarter Suns meltdown for once.

Well, along with my other systems that ended with slight profit, I didn't do too bad for my first NBA season. Up about 9 or 10 units.

Now I'm off to go study up on MLB teams for about a week to prepare for the season. Cheers.