Best Buy 400: NASCAR tackles the Monster Mile

By: Brian Gabrielle | bgsports.com

Kyle Busch comes into this weekend atop the points board, with Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr. close behind. All three will have to contend with the Miracle Mile at Dover.

Last Week: Argh. We had a winning week, but we also had Tony Stewart at a ludicrous (for him) +1200, and he had the Charlotte race won. With just three laps left and Smoke leading comfortably, he burst a tire and smacked into the wall, letting Kasey Kahne have a gift of a win.

Fortunately, Kyle Busch was able to beat Jimmie Johnson, so we won our head-to-head matchup, but anyone who has said we've been lucky so far this year can officially stick it where the sun doesn't shine. That was a really tough way to lose good money last week.

Anyway, for the week, we profited 0.17 units on 1.5 units wagered, a return of 11.3%. For the season, we've profited 7.46 units on 17 units wagered, a return of 43.9%, and we've given you winning weeks in 11 of 12 events.

At this week's Best Buy 400 at Dover International Speedway, take Greg Biffle (+1000), 1/6th unit: This week, we head to the Monster Mile at Dover, which is like Bristol on steroids – high-banked and concrete, a brake-intensive place that nevertheless allows you to go fast through the corners. No one on the Sprint Cup circuit has a better finishing average in the five Car of Tomorrow races that've happened at Dover and Bristol than Greg Biffle.

The Biff finished second and sixth at Dover last year, and was fourth at Bristol this March. He's a great bet to finish in the top five, and considering how close he was to winning at both Darlington and Charlotte over the last three weeks, he's due.

Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit: Edwards won at both Dover and Bristol last fall, and also posted a third-place finish at Dover in this race last spring. He was disappointing last weekend at Charlotte, though he was on the comeback trail before he got his front end bashed in during a late restart. I expect him to be in close contention for this win.

Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+800), 1/6th unit: I'm going to be honest here; I think Kyle Busch (+500) probably has a better chance of winning this race, but at odds that low for a driver who often has bouts of wildness, I just think that's kind of a sucker bet. So I'm going to go with the guy who replaced the Shrub in the Hendrick stable.

Junior has been so close on several occasions this year, including last week, when it looked like he had the car to beat late at Charlotte, but a late blown tire caused him to crash into the wall, whereupon J.J. Yeley T-boned him. Junior has the fifth-best COT average at Dover and Bristol combined, including a third here at Dover last fall and a fifth, fifth and seventh in three COT Bristol events. He's so close. His 74-race non-winning streak could end this week.