[semibluff]

Ok, i'm stumped. I knew the Red Bull has looked good here in the past but that was with Ricciardo driving and he's something of a street circuit specialist. Monaco doesn't suit Verstappen's aggressive cornering style. Monaco doesn't suit Bottas either. I also have no clue why Gasly is 4th favourite for this race. I can only assume this is based on Red Bull's history. This is generally an above average track for Ferrari. They had a 1-2 here in 2017 and they finished 2-4 last year bettering the Mercedes 3-5. This is a mechanical downforce track where aerodynamics plays a much smaller part, and the Mercedes 'dominance' has been due to aerodynamics and getting the tyres to work in a wider temperature range. Why the Ferraris are 5th and 6th in the betting and out with the washing at +1400, (and upwards) is a mystery to me. I'm not saying they'll win, but they're overpriced. It will be interesting to see what the podium odds and other markets are when they open.

[unlearn]

Might not even get the race in due to protests of a bunch of cab driving cucks

[tucks]

Think I’ll take Hamilton.....

[reigle9]

twitter tout took vettel 1650

[semibluff]

Well...the odds haven't moved so I guess the market is firm in its assessment of Bottas and the Red Bulls. The top 3 market has been posted with a higher total book price than normal, (around 343% for 3 outcomes compared with the normal 334%). That makes it tougher to find value and it suggests books aren't comfortable with their take on things. As ever, when books aren't sure they cut prices and increase margins. I'm not going to bet the Ferraris for a podium at +155. +170 for Vettel would be tempting, even if the true price based on these odds was +180. I clearly don't have a good handle on this race. I'll have a small bet on Vettel at +1600 for the win and sit it out. Good luck to everyone.

Monaco practice is on Thursday NOT Friday!