[semibluff]

Ferrari were dominant in P1 & P2. Mercedes were well off the pace and Red Bull were close behind Mercedes. The rest of the field were pretty close to the Mercedes and Red Bull which suggested the top 3 teams were all holding a lot back.

Projected 'true market' race odds after P2:
Driver ratings (100%): Vettel 66.6 to 33.3 over Leclerc. Hamilton 65 to 35 over Bottas. Verstappen 85 to 15 over Gasly.
Team rating (NOT 100%): Ferrari 60, Mercedes 40, Red Bull 9.3, Field 0.8.

Projected 'true market' based on above:
Vettel +175, Leclerc +451, Hamilton +324, Bottas +687, Verstappen +1295, Gasly +7700, Field +12500.

The above was my opinion. Actual best odds offered by real books after P2:
Vettel +150, Leclerc +500, Hamilton +250, Bottas +550, Verstappen +1400, Gasly +7500.

Ferrari were even more dominant after P3. It's not always the best session to judge anything on but you'd need huge odds to bet on anyone beating Ferrari.

Projected 'true market' race odds after P3:
Driver ratings (100%): Vettel 63 to 37 over Leclerc. Hamilton 62 to 38 over Bottas. Verstappen 87.5 to 12.5 over Gasly.
Team rating (NOT 100%): Ferrari 80, Mercedes 22, Red Bull 7.2, Field 0.8.

Projected 'true market' based on above:
Vettel -102, Leclerc +238, Hamilton +633, Bottas +1096, Verstappen +1487, Gasly +11000, Field +12500.

I think qualifying will be even more one-sided:
Team rating (NOT 100%): Ferrari 85, Mercedes 18, Red Bull 6.8, Field 0.2

Qualifying starts in 1 hour 20 mins from posting this. I don't have up-to-date odds to compare my evaluations with. Enjoy and good luck.

[semibluff]

It would be remiss not to add the battle behind the 'Big 6'. It's ridiculously tight between Haas and Renault with Toro Rosso next in the order. The Haas battle is a pure pick'em but Hulkenberg has owned Ricciardo all weekend. I would estimate Hulkenberg 58.5 to 41.5 over Ricciardo so if you can get substantially better than -140, (true odds) of Hulkenberg beating Ricciardo, (which is quite likely), then take them. Elsewhere Williams is still at the back and Alfa Romeo have had a torrid time with water leaks. My guess is both Alfas will be eliminated in Q1.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, bluff. Good luck.

[semibluff]

As predicted the Ferraris finished 1-2 in qualifying but the Mercedes were about 0.35 of a second closer to them than I had expected. Consequently i've revised their chances upwards. Magnussen finished within 0.1 of a second behind 5th placed Verstappen and that performance is genuine. Obviously I don't think he's going to win but he's not the +75000 no-hoper that books are pricing him at...nor is Verstappen a +2000 chance. True market price as I now see it: Charles Leclerc +1.17, Sebastian Vettel +2.39, Lewis Hamilton +6.21, Valtteri Bottas +1560, Max Verstappen +3000, Kevin Magnussen +15000, the field +15000. I don't see any value in the outright prices. Hulkenberg had a stinker in qualifying and was eliminated in Q1. Apologies if you backed him to beat Ricciardo tomorrow.

Normally I would look to the top 10 finish market for value but this might not be a race to do that. I think the Ferraris are about 0.6 seconds quicker than the Mercedes in the race with Verstappen 0.4 seconds further back. Behind them it's too close to be comfortable about anything. I wouldn't want to be betting on Gasly improving from 13th.

[Optional]

Nice write up.

I snagged LeClerc +1000 early and loving that.

Wish I had taken some Ferrari +225 to have Vettel covered too right now.


I'm not as confident as you about a race pace advantage over Merc though. Although that's mostly just based on having seen Lewis pull wins out of nowhere when he has looked down before. And Ferrari not winning when looking strongest Fri/Sat too often as well.

[unlearn]

Leclerc-110 at bovada now guess hes a lock

[semibluff]

Nice write up.

I snagged LeClerc +1000 early and loving that.

Wish I had taken some Ferrari +225 to have Vettel covered too right now.


I'm not as confident as you about a race pace advantage over Merc though. Although that's mostly just based on having seen Lewis pull wins out of nowhere when he has looked down before. And Ferrari not winning when looking strongest Fri/Sat too often as well.

I had a small bet on Leclerc at +500 after P2 and a had a bigger bet on Vettel at +140 after P3. Obviously that 2nd bet doesn't look so clever with Vettel in 2nd but it could have gone the other way and it's nice to have the market leading 80% nicely hedged. The race can always bite you in the ass but I haven't seen the Ferraris look this strong since the Schumacher days. I was worried during practice about the pace being genuine but the Ferrari engine in the Haas tells the story. Hamilton has looked very unhappy with the car all weekend so Bottas might be the bigger threat. It could be a boring race for the top 5.

[Optional]

I really wasn't sure the pace was genuine before today either. I wish I had bet a whole lot more. But my main angle was fading Merc to handle the hard tires as well as Ferrari, same as last year. So honestly wasn't really expecting a single lap speed dominance.

Renault an awful disappointment.

Or McLaren a nice surprise, depending on how you see it.

Hopefully Haas keeps up with development a bit better this year and fulfills some of this early promise this time. I'd still take Alfa to be ahead of them by second half of the season I think. Although maybe only having one good driver will hinder Alfa a bit.

[Optional]

Are you watching P2?

I was leaning Lewis to beat the Ferraris in China. Before P1