1. 03-27-12 05:33 PM #1
    5mike5
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    MARTINSVILLE--5mike5

    Alright boys were off to martinsville this week!!...i really love this short track....

    martinsville is a 0.526 mile paperclip shaped oval...banking is 12 degress in the turns and 0 degrees on the starights...the frontstretch and backstretch are both 800 feet in length...actually got invited to go again this week but havent made up my mind as of yet

    PRACTICES: FRIDAY at 12:30 and 3:30 pm est...both airing on SPEED chanel

    QUALIFYING: SATURDAY 11:30 am on SPEED channel

    SPRINT CUP RACE: 1PM on FOX sunday

    as always everybody that wants to share useful information and thoughts is always welcome on my weekly nascar thread...its really been useful for the newbies wanting to wager on nascar and thanks for every1s help...personally been a amazing start to the season winning big on 4 of 5 races to start the 2012 season and were going to keep it up...damn rain cost me last week, so hopegully thats not going to happen again..lol.....well goodluck to every1 this week and hope we all cash in at the paperclip!!!

    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-27-12 at 06:35 PM.
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  2. 03-27-12 05:38 PM #2
    5mike5
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    ****** NO NATIONWIDE RACE THIS WEEKEND*******

    next nationwide event is not for 2 weeks on friday night, april 13th at TEXAS
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  3. 03-27-12 05:41 PM #3
    5mike5
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    TRUCK SERIES SCHEDULE:

    PRACTICES:     FRIDAY 11:00am and 2:00pm

    QUALIFYING: SATURDAY 10am

    TRUCK SERIES RACE: SATURDAY AT 1PM airing on SPEED channel

    ****race is also being held at the paperclip
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  4. 03-27-12 05:45 PM #4
    5mike5
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    already started watching the entire last 4 races that have been held at Martinsville on the Sprint Cup level and data from all my driver/track notes from the paperclip....no that difficult to handicap in the past so hopefully this year isnt any different...

    im still adding early wagers and will post them up when im finished...not too much value if thats what ur looking for but odds are pretty much same as they have been in the past for races here, so i cant wait around for my favs. and odds drop even lower, and from my notes they usually do...

    as always even with early bets ill leave myself plenty of room to adjust and make then cover wagers if i need to..
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  5. 03-27-12 05:50 PM #5
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  6. 03-27-12 06:05 PM #6
    5mike5
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    how u been doing in ncaa's tournament DAD?

    i did great 1st day of it, but been awful picking games since then....

    been pretty much sticking to parlaying player props +100 and worse and been doing great there, just not picking games...im no good at handicapping any basketball games personally, except the+ odd props
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  7. 03-27-12 06:32 PM #7
    5mike5
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    the only 2 days theres even a chance of rain in martisville this week is saturday and sunday...40% each day

    had a great time when i went to the fall race at martinsville last year...definatley a great venue to go see a race at imo
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-27-12 at 06:40 PM.
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  8. 03-27-12 06:58 PM #8
    Dad
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    how u been doing in ncaa's tournament DAD?

    i did great 1st day of it, but been awful picking games since then....

    been pretty much sticking to parlaying player props +100 and worse and been doing great there, just not picking games...im no good at handicapping any basketball games personally, except the+ odd props
    I havent been losing my ass off so thats a good thing.

    I'm doing good in NBA right now. Going for my 6th straight win tonight with Houston.
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  9. 03-27-12 07:06 PM #9
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dad View Post
    I havent been losing my ass off so thats a good thing.

    I'm doing good in NBA right now. Going for my 6th straight win tonight with Houston.
    GL then bud ill be routing for ya!!!
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  10. 03-27-12 08:17 PM #10
    Optional
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    You will bring rain again with that talk Mike!

    Looking forward to hearing what you think after the replay watching.
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  11. 03-27-12 08:56 PM #11
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    the only 2 days theres even a chance of rain in martisville this week is saturday and sunday...40% each day

    had a great time when i went to the fall race at martinsville last year...definatley a great venue to go see a race at imo
    Forecast now50 % chance of rain Saturday and down to 20% Sunday
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  12. 03-27-12 09:36 PM #12
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Forecast now50 % chance of rain Saturday and down to 20% Sunday

    well just depends where u look, mine still says 40% on sunday too, but it will change 50 times...i was just joking around after last weekend after dreading it all week and it all happened!...LOL
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-27-12 at 09:44 PM.
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  13. 03-27-12 10:15 PM #13
    JackalLion
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    Of course the obvious picks are Jimmy, Denny, Kyle, Tony and typically Jeff. I always try to find a long shot with good odds early so I'm leaning on Matt this week. No laughing from you seasoned guys studying trackdata, driver ratings, etc..Lol I also like Happy at 950.
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  14. 03-27-12 10:23 PM #14
    onlooker
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    Rain seems to follow NASCAR. It is just the way it is.
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  15. 03-28-12 08:46 AM #15
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackalLion View Post
    Of course the obvious picks are Jimmy, Denny, Kyle, Tony and typically Jeff. I always try to find a long shot with good odds early so I'm leaning on Matt this week. No laughing from you seasoned guys studying trackdata, driver ratings, etc..Lol I also like Happy at 950.
    some of those drivers not as obvious a pick at martinsville as u think imho......watching past races gives u MUCH more information than any stat...takes a ton of time every mon/tues but its well worth it come sunday..just like last years race looking at stats dont tell the story of the race and who was what
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-28-12 at 12:30 PM.
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  16. 03-28-12 08:51 AM #16
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    Rain seems to follow NASCAR. It is just the way it is.

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  17. 03-28-12 12:41 PM #17
    5mike5
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    im sticking to 2 upper driver picks early this week at the MAX..might not even end up with that many early this week....might change my mind just depends on line movement on mid-range drivers, but this track is dominated by a select few...only value i saw early was denny becuase dont think u will be able to get him at +575 again....i still left myself room but i cant see me shifting him to a cover wager at the clip

    i think almost all mid-range drivers that may have early value will actually only get better as the race gets close unless they light the sessions on fire, and even then im not sure it will be much of a change for the better

    last few years i max. out at only 4 drivers to make a profit and 1-2 cover wagers and thats it...cant really see anything changing either as odds are almost identical to where they started at for the last few races here, but never know we will just see where they take us i guess
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-28-12 at 02:09 PM.
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  18. 03-28-12 12:51 PM #18
    5mike5
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    cant decide if i should drive up and go to Martinsville for race weekend or just stay home and watch it on the tube and catch final 4 too......hmmmm

    was a great event to go to last fall or i wouldnt even consider it
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-28-12 at 12:55 PM.
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  19. 03-28-12 09:39 PM #19
    5mike5
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    **Burton Smith has OFFICIALLY made the call to put BRISTOL back to the way ot was b4 the resurfacing and widening of the track in 2007...

    all changes will be made b4 the bristol night race this august...AWSOME!!! cant wait to go!!!!!
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  20. 03-29-12 12:48 PM #20
    5mike5
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    at least we have great news on the weather front

    0% chance of rain all weeknd
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  21. 03-29-12 01:24 PM #21
    5mike5
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    saw this stat i didnt realize before:

    since the repaving in 2004, no track has more wrecks than martinsville does with 154 accidents..charlotte at 108 and bristol 103 are top 3
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  22. 03-29-12 02:16 PM #22
    Optional
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    Was that suggesting it's harder to finish than it used to be or just an interesting stat?

    I wonder where it ranked before the re-pave. Probably right up there as well at a guess.


    Bruton is a master track marketer. He must be sure the extra ticket sales (and being able to put the full house sign up early again) will cover the work cost imho.

    Danger is that he will make a good track bad just for the marketing purpose.
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  23. 03-29-12 04:09 PM #23
    5mike5
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    it was just saying that martinsville has more accidents than any other track on the circuit since 2004...the reason i love this track is there alot of action and wrecks..

    im sure it ranked up there even b4 the repave job in 04 too but i dont know those #s...i took just as a interesting stat i have never seen b4

    and those #s were actual "wrecks" from that timeframe, not cautions from 2004-present
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-29-12 at 04:39 PM.
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  24. 03-29-12 10:07 PM #24
    5mike5
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    still planning to add my last early wager(s) late tonight/early morning...just going over some final stuff this evening
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  25. 03-30-12 02:46 AM #25
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    Already took Stewart +700 and Harvick +950 early........Taking a chance on them to do well in the practices.
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  26. 03-30-12 06:47 AM #26
    5mike5
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    GL buddy

    i dont think it would matter much at this track on the top few guys...think its about where they will stay at, and maybe get lower....no matter what the top 3 will more than likely be top 3 no matter what happens in practices imo...
    i actually think everybody else's odds get better closer to the race
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-30-12 at 07:21 AM.
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  27. 03-30-12 10:50 AM #27
    5mike5
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    gordon and johnson odds wont do much besides go down as well imo and if ur betting them anyways why not take them early and leave ratio where u can use them as just a cover wager if u need too if u like some1 else more by sunday...
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-30-12 at 11:02 AM.
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  28. 03-30-12 11:04 AM #28
    5mike5
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    still o% chance of rain the whole weekend in martinsville so at least that wont be a problem again this weekend...

    calling for temps in the high 70s all weekend....sounds like a beautiful weekend for racing
    Last edited by 5mike5; 03-30-12 at 11:10 AM.
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  29. 03-30-12 11:22 AM #29
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    cant decide if i should drive up and go to Martinsville for race weekend or just stay home and watch it on the tube and catch final 4 too......hmmmm

    was a great event to go to last fall or i wouldnt even consider it
    decided just to stay home this weekend and relax and enjoy race and final 4
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  30. 03-30-12 02:31 PM #30
    onlooker
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    Who watched the 1st practice? What happen to Jimmie? 38th?
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  31. 03-30-12 02:42 PM #31
    5mike5
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    nothing wrong with him...had to change something on car only reason

    hes fine

    thank god i bet gordon already....practices are very overrated when it comes to capping the race, but better than being awful i guess
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  32. 03-30-12 02:52 PM #32
    5mike5
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    tony stewart is the only driver so far this year to win a race after practing in top 5 data

    this isnt abnormal either, thats why i always say handicapping races by relying heavily on what u see in practices will lose u many more races than it will ever win...at least thats my thinking
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  33. 03-30-12 02:55 PM #33
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    Who watched the 1st practice? What happen to Jimmie? 38th?
    I think most of them are working on race setup, lots of longshots putting in faster speeds in both sessions so far.
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  34. 03-30-12 02:56 PM #34
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    I think most of them are working on race setup, lots of longshots putting in faster speeds in both sessions so far.
    he had to change something on car immediatley when he went out there
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  35. 03-30-12 02:59 PM #35
    5mike5
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    jeff goron will qualify last after having best time in P1
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