1. 10-04-11 09:44 AM #1
    Optional
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    Nascar Hollywood Casino 400 Kansas

    The Greek Says...

    101 Jimmie Johnson +700
    102 Carl Edwards +800
    103 Jeff Gordon +800
    104 Kyle Busch +800
    105 Tony Stewart +800
    106 Kurt Busch +900
    107 Matt Kenseth +1100
    108 Kevin Harvick +1100
    109 Brad Keselowski +1400
    110 Denny Hamlin +1800
    111 Greg Biffle +1800
    112 Kasey Kahne +2500
    113 Dale Earnhardt Jr +3000
    114 Clint Bowyer +3000
    115 Mark Martin +3000
    116 David Ragan +4000
    117 Martin Truex Jr +4000
    118 Jeff Burton +4000
    119 Brian Vickers +4000
    120 Joey Logano +5000
    121 Juan Montoya +5000
    122 David Reutimann +5000
    123 AJ Allmendinger +5000
    124 Jamie McMurray +5000
    125 Ryan Newman +3000
    126 Field +3000



    Biffle the early value here? By far his best track historically. And only Gordo is slightly better than him here.
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  2. 10-04-11 09:58 AM #2
    Vegas39
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    Was about to post this I also like Biff early and Stewart as well
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  3. 10-04-11 10:08 AM #3
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    Last 5 races here

    Attachment 33177
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  4. 10-04-11 10:11 AM #4
    Vegas39
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    Hope Kyle qualifies well so I can fade him in a few match ups
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  5. 10-05-11 06:38 AM #5
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    Look at the average start. Biffle is not running that well. Jimmie at +700 all day long.
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  6. 10-05-11 08:11 AM #6
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    I'm with you on Jimmie being there Hawk.


    Here's some more stats... for what they are worth. Pretty obvious who the contenders are this week anyway.

    Looking at the driver ratings for last 7 races here. Last race here was earlier this year (for first time) so think the results of the corresponding chase race last year might be more valuable.

    Biffle:
    4 120+ rated drives
    2 wins
    0 poles (only 1 top 5 start)
    Won this race last year with a 137.4
    Attachment 33211

    Johnson:
    3 120+ rated drives
    1 win
    2 poles (Hasn't managed a top 10 start since 2008 race)
    2nd last year but rated a career low of 99.5 for the effort.
    Attachment 33207

    Stewart:
    2 120+ rated drives
    2 wins
    0 poles (only 1 top 5 start)
    4th last year with a 125 rating
    Attachment 33213


    Gordon:
    0 120+ rated drives (but has been over 110 in each of last 5 races)
    0 wins (but finished top 5 in each of last 5)
    0 poles (but best average start amongst this lot)
    5th last year with a 115.4
    Attachment 33209


    Edwards:
    1 120+ rated drive (this year)
    0 wins
    0 poles
    6th last year with a 98.2

    Attachment 33215
    Last edited by Optional; 10-05-11 at 08:27 AM.
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  7. 10-05-11 08:19 AM #7
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    Thought I had better add these three for a bit more completeness.

    Kyle Busch
    0 120+ rated drives
    0 wins
    0 poles
    21st last year with a 77.3
    Attachment 33217

    Kurt Busch
    2 120+ rated drives
    0 wins
    1 poles
    13th last year with a 97.8
    Attachment 33219

    Matt Kenseth
    0 120+ rated drives
    0 wins
    1 poles
    7th last year with a 117.6
    Attachment 33221
    Last edited by Optional; 10-05-11 at 08:24 AM.
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  8. 10-06-11 06:58 AM #8
    StanleySharp
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    Wow, these are really helpful statistics. Where did you get them Opti?
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  9. 10-06-11 08:23 AM #9
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    racing-reference.info
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  10. 10-06-11 09:31 AM #10
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    racing-reference.info
    a great site use that alot as well as driveraverages.com
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  11. 10-06-11 10:08 AM #11
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    driveraverages is a lot more sophisticated. But I find it a bit mind boggling unless I want to drill down for something specific. Which it is awesome for.
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  12. 10-06-11 10:10 AM #12
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    driveraverages is a lot more sophisticated. But I find it a bit mind boggling unless I want to drill down for something specific. Which it is awesome for.

    It has been a big help to me on qualifying plays this year...Plus I'm a stat geek
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  13. 10-06-11 10:10 AM #13
    5mike5
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    yeah those are good...helped me start up the notbooks i got for each driver and track
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  14. 10-06-11 10:18 AM #14
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    Dew has years of notes too. He doesn't post that much anymore but some of the info he has shared is golden. Are you finding the abnormal practice/quali arrangements this year are making it harder to make good use of them?


    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    It has been a big help to me on qualifying plays this year...Plus I'm a stat geek
    I understand if you don't want to explain your strategy in detail, but what stats are best to look at on there to pick the winners of these? (they all look too hard or too juiced to me at first glance)

    Attachment 33229
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  15. 10-06-11 10:21 AM #15
    Vegas39
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    Its been tougher lines later we have gotten only one I played was Bowyer over Kez this week as Q averages here close and will always take a shot on + side if even or near in averages.Plus Bowyer a Kansas Boy so think he will have good weekend
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  16. 10-08-11 11:52 AM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    Its been tougher lines later we have gotten only one I played was Bowyer over Kez this week as Q averages here close and will always take a shot on + side if even or near in averages.Plus Bowyer a Kansas Boy so think he will have good weekend
    Damn Every other dog got up.



    Anyone else thinking Denny Hamlin looking likely as a smokey?
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  17. 10-08-11 11:53 AM #17
    5mike5
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    i will probably have hamlin on my roster this week...hes in win or bust mode and hes pretty good here
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  18. 10-08-11 11:57 AM #18
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    like the way his lap times are looking in all sessions so far. Came out near fastest this session too and not in a hurry to run lots of laps.

    Want to see an interview with him. Think it's all about the mind position with Denny.
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  19. 10-08-11 04:15 PM #19
    Vegas39
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    Grabbed Bowyer @22-1 he was second in both practices today on 10 lap averages
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  20. 10-08-11 04:18 PM #20
    5mike5
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    he looked pretty good and good value, just he doesnt win, especially on 1.5...but i think its good value....definatley a good londshot at that price...i still havent finished my roster up
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  21. 10-08-11 11:09 PM #21
    yisman
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    OK, why is it that books won't take bets on NASCAR? They give you a very small window.

    I've been checking in several times tonight and no lines up.

    If they're concerned about nationwide, didn't that end a bunch of hours ago?
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  22. 10-08-11 11:22 PM #22
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    OK, why is it that books won't take bets on NASCAR? They give you a very small window.

    I've been checking in several times tonight and no lines up.

    If they're concerned about nationwide, didn't that end a bunch of hours ago?

    5DIMES has had the odds posted for hours now...dont know if u use that book but there up there
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  23. 10-08-11 11:27 PM #23
    yisman
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    I went to 5 Dimes about 2 hours ago and they had absolutely nothing for this race. Only odds they had were on winning the Sprint Cup.

    Bodog has had nothing all night.
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  24. 10-08-11 11:30 PM #24
    5mike5
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    i took 2 drivers on 5dimes hours ago...
    and i just checked again and they are up now yisman.. sure if they had them down when u looked for some reason but they were up along with matchups as well
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  25. 10-08-11 11:32 PM #25
    5mike5
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    and nothing has changed odds wise since i was on there a few hours ago so u havent missed anything
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  26. 10-08-11 11:39 PM #26
    yisman
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    Yeah I checked now and odds are up at 5 Dimes.

    Not sure why they had them down before.

    Really looking for HTH because that's what I bet but it's nice to see something at least.
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  27. 10-08-11 11:46 PM #27
    5mike5
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    ok glad u got them buddy
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  28. 10-09-11 12:30 AM #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Yeah I checked now and odds are up at 5 Dimes.

    Not sure why they had them down before.

    Really looking for HTH because that's what I bet but it's nice to see something at least.
    If you can wait until a couple of hours pre-race they add a bunch more options.

    I noticed 5D were slower than usual grading NW and getting markets up after practice this week.
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  29. 10-09-11 12:41 AM #29
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    Yeah, I just don't understand why the window is so small to bet on those other options, like HTH and the various props.
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  30. 10-09-11 12:45 AM #30
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    It doesn't seem like a small window to me. Not at Greek or 5D anyway. Sometimes they come up and down at 5D. Maybe you've had bad timing.
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  31. 10-09-11 08:08 AM #31
    yisman
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    OK, what are you talking about? Of course it's a small window. It's the morning of the race and this is all they have:

    Sprint Cup Hollywood Casino 400
    Sun 10/9 2:00PMCarl Edwards +450Greg Biffle +800Jimmie Johnson +825Matt Kenseth +825Kyle Busch +875Jeff Gordon +900Tony Stewart +1400Brad Keselowski +1450Kurt Busch +1500Kevin Harvick +1500Denny Hamlin +1600Kasey Kahne +2200Clint Bowyer +2200Dale Earnhardt Jr +3300Mark Martin +3300Ryan Newman +3300Martin Truex Jr +3700David Ragan +4000Jeff Burton +6600Brian Vickers +6600Joey Logano +6600Paul Menard +7000Juan Montoya +8000David Reutimann +8500AJ Allmendinger +8500Jamie McMurray +8500Marcos Ambrose +10000Regan Snith +15000Bobby Labonte +50000Casey Mears +50000Scott Speed +75000David Gilliland +100000Austin Dillon +150000JJ Yeley +150000David Stremme +150000Andy Lally +150000Travis Kvapil +150000Dave Blaney +150000Michael McDowell +150000Landon Cassill +150000Mike Bliss +150000Joe Nemechek +150000


    No props, no head to head. Yes, it's a small window.
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  32. 10-09-11 08:32 AM #32
    5mike5
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    plenty of time since they were up yesterday and last night for hours...including head to head....not tomention they will be up hours b4 the race starts today as well....and odds to win the race have been up since monday night(except when pract./qualifying started)....im just speaking of 5 dimes though
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