Originally Posted by
Mistaflava
Roger Federer @3.00 over Rafael Nadal ($5000 to win $10000)
There is a lot to be said, a lot to be learned and now is not the time to bet with your cocks. So forget about which player is your favourite, forget about which player you love and think more of how much more you could love them if they show you some cash ****in money by winning or losing this match.I am not a big fan of Roger Federer's and I am not a big fan of the way he plays but right off the bat, the oddsmakers have slapped him in the face and dropped huge underdog odds on him. There comes a time in a every professional athletes life where all they really want to do is accomplish what they could not in the past. It happens in the NHL, all the guys want their names on the Stanley Cup before they retire. It happens in basketball, all the veteran guys like Karl Malone want a ring before they retire. Pete Sampras is one of the greatest of all-time but his legacy will never be the same as some of the other tennis greats who have won each slam at least once. That's how it works. Guys are remembered for championships won more than personal accomplishments which is why Roger Federer needs this win more than anything else in his career. However, the biggest mistake people tend to make is comparing Sampras with Federer. Pete Sampras won only 63% of his career matches on clay courts, was 24-13 at the French Open and never once reached the FINAL. Roger Federer has won almost 80% of his career matches on clay courts and is 26-7 at the French Open having reached the FINAL once and lost to Nadal. My point here is that Federer is twenty times more likely to win Roland Garros than Sampras was and nobody seems to understand that. For me it all started in Hamburg, and yes I know Nadal was tired but he's young and he's fit, when Federer ended Nadal record shattering win streak on clay courts. Not only did that win give Roger the kind of confidence boost he needed heading into the French Open but it also let Roger know that he can beat Nadal on this surface and he can beat him good. You also all forget that Roger took the first set from Nadal in last year's final and was within a few points of forcing a fifth set. The last 12 months have been a very good indication of what Roger's intentions are that those intentions are to win the French Open. Since last year's finals loss to Nadal, Federer is 32-0 in BEST OF FIVE SETS matches having destroyed everyone in his path while Nadal has shown at times that he is vulnerable and beatable. His losses to Federer in Hamburg, Gonzalez at the Australian Open and Mikhail Youzhny at the US Open are all signs to me that Rafa is not untouchable and that Roger has really stepped his game up since their meeting a year ago. The year leading up to Federer's loss in last year's French Open final, he had lost to Nadal in Rome, he had lost to Nadal in Monte Carlo and he had lost to David Nalbandian in Shanghai. Well this time around guys not only did he beat Nadal prior to the French Open but he also beat every single opponent he faced in a BEST OF FIVE SET match...something he has never done leading up to a French Open tournament. Believe me when I tell you guys that Roger is ready, Roger is loaded and Roger is more than capable of finally winning this elusive tournament. He is not getting younger so it's not like he would be okay with a loss here, it would be devastating. Nadal has yet to lose a set in this tournament but Federer is the one guy who probably has Nadal a little bit worried right and I say that only because he finally lost to him on clay courts and he is well aware what this tournament means to Roger. I you checkout my situation rating below, let it be known that Nadal had a big advantage on this heading into last year's final (and he won of course) but this year he does not. I am not going to discuss this match anymore but this is my largest wager of the year in tennis and I could not have been happier to have odds like this on the best all-around tennis player in the planet. GO FEDERER!
Roger Federer Situation Rating: 5.69
Rafael Nadal Situation Rating: 4.90
Edge: Federer by 0.79