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Originally posted on 06/30/2023:

If Betfair has the correct (higher) odds compared to the local bettors (lower payout), then the local bettors are over-estimating the horses chances (example: Betfair believes predicting a dice roll should pay 6.0 on a $1 bet, the local bettors think 4.5 is correct). The aspect I'm testing is whether Betfair is occasionally offering 8.0 for the dice roll, and the local bettors say 6.0. It seems to occur when Betfair is concurrently offering 1.8 on a coin-flip, and the locals say 2.0. That 1.8 'error' has to go somewhere.

Your study could show that when a horse is a very low odds favorite, the value could be in some of the other odds within the race and when the favorites are all higher prices the value could be in those favorites.

In all probability an edge Does exist within both ways of showing odds. Being a business model on the set odds side, they probably use the same process each time being as they cannot change when more money shows on a horse than anticipated. So if you had the true odds on the favorite and/or the second choice and saw it bet down live, you could most likely find value in the other horses at the track as it now exists.
If there was no clear big favorite, chances are you could find value in the first 3-4 favorites that probably were penciled in to receive more play from the fixed odds side.

I would be really interested in hearing what you find. It seems to make sense that there would be value in most races.

Please keep us posted as you go.

Thanks again.