Originally Posted by
str
I would typically caution against taking a future 3 months out on 5-1. So many things must go right to gain a 12.00 mutual instead of a 5.80 mutual. ( I assume that the 5-1 pays 12? Or does it only pay 10?) That's kind of a big deal in my mind. Mainly because this is all about math and probability.
But with the hammer lock on talent that Baffert has as well as the previous few years results, I do think that in all probability this horse is the winner if things play out as expected. Problem is, as you know, in horse racing, more often than not, they do not.
I would get clarity on the actual payout before doing anything. But that's because I don't play futures very often at all and if I do, the payout is high enough I don't care about the 2.00 difference. Good chance you already know the answer.
Please let me know if you do. Thanks JBEX.