[kdmfox]

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07santaanitahandicap.pdf


A Closer Look


Santa Anita - Santa Anita Handicap (G1)
By ART GROPPER

Awesome Gem: Behind similar in the Strub, which snapped a perfect 3-for-3 Santa Anita main track streak; Grade 2 stakes winner likes to wind up from far back and he should see a very strong pace up front; must show a much better passing gear than latest to shock these.

El Roblar: Goes for trainer Mandella, who has owned this race the last 10 years with 3 winners (2005 Rock Hard Ten, '98 Malek and '97 Siphon); good 3rd over the track with a career-Top Beyer speed figure, although finished behind a few of these in that start; his stakes win occurred on turf; have to think the barn was pointing to this and sire finished 2nd in the SA Derby; using in exotics.

Boboman: The other Mandella entrant is a mystery horse, because he's never been on dirt; troubled in the San Marcos on grass as the 6-5 favorite in last; his main track works are terrific and reunites with multiple-win rider Solis; out of a G2-placed dam (137K); Mandella does wonders in this race and Bobo' looms a major threat ifcan transfer super grass form to dirt.

Ball Four: Tough beat in the San Antonio as Molengao got up in the final stride; the added distance following a new Top could mean a possible bounce; likely won't make an easy lead with Spring At Last, Lava Man and McCann's Mojave going early here.

Spring At Last: Sibling to G1 Sharp Lisa (658K) has fired strongly in 2-of-3 Santa Anita starts, but you have to wonder about the distance after coming up short in the lane at 9 furlongs; the 3-back winner returned to victory in a G2 (107 Beyer) next out; may get caught up in what could be a rapid pace with Lava Man-Ball Four-McCann's Mojave; pace factor.

Molengao (BRZ): Espinoza reunites for the 1st time since Jan 2006 allowance win; the rider won the Big 'Cap in 2004 on Southern Image; late-running style fits well at this distance, although Lava Man had his number throughout 2006; he's a quality closer in a race filled with speed and Espinoza is a hard-nosed money rider; the pick.

Lava Man: Winner of 5 Grade 1's, he's the defending Champion of the Big Cap; his last 3 starts at Santa Anita are a Grade 2 victory paired with two Million-dollar triumphs; handled in the B. Cup by Horse of the Year Invasor, who Beyered 109 when winning a troubled G1 Donn Handicap next out; Lava' rated to win in last on the grass instead of trying Invasor out of town; can stalk and win, which is a tactic he may need to employ in a race loaded with speed; he's giving away 7 pounds to the field, which seems the main knock against.

Arson Squad: Got up to win the Strub and has clearly prospered when sent longer distances with 10 furlongs right up his alley; was behind similar before latest, which was a career Top effort and seems to be the 'now' horse; a logical contender.

McCann's Mojave: That was an amazing upset victory in the Sunshine Millions as he set a solid pace, then kept on going and going at 33-1 odds; the race looks even better since Silver Wagon drilled a G2 field at LRL next out (109 Beyer); there's plenty of speed to his inside, but he's capable of a 21-quarter here, witnessed in the 2005 Ancient Title; the outside draw and the possibility of a bounce with a lot of speed to his inside are the drawbacks.

[Seattle Slew]

As much as I respect what Lava Man has done, his presence right now is killing these races in California. He offers no value. Take him out of this race, and how good a betting race is this? Favorite might be 4-1.

That said, I'm playing Arson Squad. He's got the best jockey and is coming off a nice score from off the pace. Plenty of early speed in this race to keep Lava Man company. Hopefully, he'll work too hard and finally come back to earth. Wouldn't play a lot against this guy right now but have to try and beat him.

[kdmfox]

I'm also on #8 Arson Squad ... Lots of late run.

[Seattle Slew]

I'd expect Gomez to drop this guy back and let the speed horses keep Lava Man busy up front, then try and reel Lava Man in in the stretch once Lava Man puts away the speed horses. Just haven't seen anyone have any luck trying to catch Lava Man in the lane.

I'm also on #8 Arson Squad ... Lots of late run.

[Seattle Slew]

Got to the OTB to find out Arson Squad was scratched. Only horse I could figure was the horse that ran second at 7-1. Had a good trip and looked like he had a shot to run down Lava Man only to fall half-length short. Another huge exacta at $13.40.

Lava Man didn't get a perfect trip and still won. Horse is a machine on the west coast.