Originally Posted by
Slimpickens
Saturday Aqueduct
Race 7- Hannibal Lector #6
A very fascinating 6 furlong race here. All of the major barns in New York are represented, from Jacobson,Rudy Rod, Levine and even a horse that will be running 1st time for the Todd Pletcher barn.
1 Tenango 5/2 ML Favorite- This horse is very consistent and is I guess a deserving favorite. I really wonder what kind of a trip he is going to work out from the rail. Most of his races are at 7 furlongs and further so I expect him to be mid pack and make a run in the stretch.
2 Private Tale 8/1 ML - Here is the trainer change horse going out 1st time for Pletcher. On his best he is a major player here. I suppose the tote board will be the best indicator of if he is ready for his best today.
3 Isthmus 15/1ML- Seems like the likely quickest horse out of the gate. Im going against I just dont think he's good enough but there isnt a ton of early pace so he could be involved in the finish. I just think that theres too many horses that are superior to him on ability.
4 Sensational Slam 20/1ML - He won 2 races back at 39-1 and won his last race as well at 40-1 odds!! Was against cheaper stock though and I just cant see it against this level.
5 Haverhill 6/1 ML - He has a handful of races over his 31 race career that are fast enough to make him a major player. Figures to get a similar trip to that of the rail runner here Tenango and just dont see Haverhill getting the better of Tenango so i have to toss him here.
6 Hannibal Lector 5/1 ML- This is a horse that I have always liked. His last 3 races have been very similar in which he drops back about 4 lengths and makes a strong middle move approaching the top of the stretch and has been filling out trifecta's and superfecta's for the most part.
Why do I think that will be different today? Well, I am seeing a strong 8th out of 102 4 furlong drill on December 21st which Im taking as a sign that they will be more forwardly placed here today. Also the pace shouldnt be quite as strong as several horses are cutting back in distance in this race so Im thinking the pace wont be as hot. I want the rider to be sitting 2nd or 3rd pass the #3 Isthmus whenever he wants to and then have to hold off the closers. I really feel he is a better horse when situated closer to the pace.
Really keying in on his May 12th especially as well as his June 13th win at Belmont. Was never further than 2 lenghts back and won both of those races against some nice horses. One of which Palace who has turned into a 100 beyer fig type horse. If hannibal Lector is handled properly today he should be a major factor for the win. I also like that he has a hungry 5 pound bug rider up today which could really make a difference here.
7 Malachite 12/1 ML- I really dont know what to make of this horse. He faced some good ones as a 2 year old last winter such as Revolutionary and Transparent. Just won clear off of a 9 month layoff for David Donk but he only faced 4 foes that day and they werent very good. Jose Ortiz taking the mount back is surely a plus.
8 Ravalo 5-1 ML- This 18 time winner certainly has the credentials to win this race but he was just claimed away from top trainer David Jacobson, not that Levine is a bad trainer but still a negative move. A horse that likes to come from off the pace and does pick up bug rider Manuel Franco so he could come runing but Im hoping the pace wont be fast enough for this old pro to close into.
9 Don Tito 7/2 ML - I hope that this 7/2 morning line plays out to be true because I really dont care for this runner here. His win 2 back was a perfect trip win against a field at half the claiming price of this race. This guy is a pace presser generally so Im hoping he is caught chasing wide and drops back in the stretch. Only cause for pause is trainer Rudy Rodriguez who is hitting at over 30% so far over the inner dirt.
Win on 6
Exacta Box 1,6
If the 2 is live on the board would use him in exacta's as well.