[JBEX]

The seven could have caused the rider to think that but I did not care for the overall aggression I saw. He was not like that prior to the Derby. IMO, he needs to get back to relaxing more early. No reason for him to be on the bit down the backside like he was.

He looked like he was tired even putting away the speed horse when they were well in front of the rest. That is a sign of too much strain early. And while I am sure he was not 100%, he still could have relaxed more. He will need to if he is to improve the rest of the year.

He will be a better horse next out but all that goes away if he burns forward energy when it isn't needed. Hope he gets himself settled training in the AM. It will need to happen IMO.

Winner ran great. Hats off to him.

makes sense and maybe he needs some time separation from the derby to become a little more relaxed..still a lightly raced horse and have a hunch he'll learn the lessons and be a little less keen next race or possibly the one after that..hoping that is the case


would imagine he'll be taking the next step and run in the haskell ..saratoga also a possibility but you figure with all the shipping he's done staying at mth might be more prudent



if you didnt see it the army mule filly won and paid $18




.

[str]

makes sense and maybe he needs some time separation from the derby to become a little more relaxed..still a lightly raced horse and have a hunch he'll learn the lessons and be a little less keen next race or possibly the one after that..hoping that is the case


would imagine he'll be taking the next step and run in the haskell ..saratoga also a possibility but you figure with all the shipping he's done staying at mth might be more prudent



if you didnt see it the army mule filly won and paid $18




.

Oh yeah, I saw it.

I am stunned that these Army Mule first time starters are not always 3-1 or less.

How do so many win first out, and mostly in maiden Special Weight races and this one runs for maiden 40k and pays 18.00 ?

I mean, what is it that the public is not seeing? People are always wishing they had inside information. Well, here is some. Do not let an Army Mule firster pay more than 7.00 as a firster without betting your typical size bet on it. Don't worry about place or show. Just bet to win.

So anyone looking for a little action that has the patience to check around for a winner, put sired by Army Mule, or whatever the terminology is in your stable mail or however that thing works and sit back and enjoy.

I saw that she was claimed but the claim was voided because she cooled out poorly. Sore, or Bled, or something. Probably answers the question of why was she in for 40k first out.

Tremendous job digging Army Mule out very early on JBEX.

He is the gift that keeps on giving.

[JBEX]

Oh yeah, I saw it.

I am stunned that these Army Mule first time starters are not always 3-1 or less.

How do so many win first out, and mostly in maiden Special Weight races and this one runs for maiden 40k and pays 18.00 ?

I mean, what is it that the public is not seeing? People are always wishing they had inside information. Well, here is some. Do not let an Army Mule firster pay more than 7.00 as a firster without betting your typical size bet on it. Don't worry about place or show. Just bet to win.

So anyone looking for a little action that has the patience to check around for a winner, put sired by Army Mule, or whatever the terminology is in your stable mail or however that thing works and sit back and enjoy.

I saw that she was claimed but the claim was voided because she cooled out poorly. Sore, or Bled, or something. Probably answers the question of why was she in for 40k first out.

Tremendous job digging Army Mule out very early on JBEX.

He is the gift that keeps on giving.

thanks str

he really is a bargain at his fee..they often seem to come out running and are battlers when they engage another horse..wont see his first crop with the higher fee till 2025 so the next couple of years should be telling as to where he's heading as a stallion..in the mean time ,as you said, a worthwhile play with the odds minimum you mentioned

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: a question on a race today from Belmont Park. Race #2. The horse in question is the #6 Agent Creed. The rider is Joel Rosario. It's not on You Tube that I can find but if you go to the Belmont site Replays are posted for free.

What is your opinion of the ride especially the last panel or so. THX IN advance if you have the time.

[Easy-Rider 66]

STR I just checked twitter and Rosario getting criticized heavily for the ride on Agent Creed. Interested to see if you agree. THX.

[str]

Hey STR: a question on a race today from Belmont Park. Race #2. The horse in question is the #6 Agent Creed. The rider is Joel Rosario. It's not on You Tube that I can find but if you go to the Belmont site Replays are posted for free.

What is your opinion of the ride especially the last panel or so. THX IN advance if you have the time.

STR I just checked twitter and Rosario getting criticized heavily for the ride on Agent Creed. Interested to see if you agree. THX.

I just watched the race. At first glance it is the classic example of a jockey falling asleep when they run by horses and gain a clear lead, wrap up, and get nailed at the wire. But honestly, EZ, that is not close to what happened.

While it is expected to criticize jocks when this happens because the horse goes to sleep at the prompting of the rider and they ease up and the rider goes to sleep as well, is that what really happened here? I say no.

But to NOT criticize Rosario seems like I am in denial or something. And I get that.

So let's put it out there that Rosario could have certainly finished harder and more aggressively than he did. But he did not totally wrap up either. He was hand riding to the finish. He never stopped riding all together and more importantly, he could feel his horse not pulling up, pricking his ears, or shortening his stride much at all. When the rider looked back, the horse did decelerate slightly, but not prior to that point. He instantly picked it back up when Rosario became more aggressive after looking back.

So before I cast my opinion on this I want to point out something that I doubt very many people are realizing about this race. Rosario's horse went the last 1/8th of a mile of a 1 1/8th mile race in 11 4/5ths. That is NOT gearing down. That is finishing well. Very well.

The winner finished that last 1/8th in roughly 11 1/5th + seconds. Faster than 11 2/5ths for sure. That is insanely good. And not at all expected.

So, yeah, Joel could have finished stronger. And frustratingly, this happens from time to time. But nobody is more disappointed than Joel. And it happens to every rider at some point. Nobody is perfect. I just hope that someone can point out to all those critics that he made an error by not looking back sooner, which in all probability was because he could feel the horse continuing on at a fast rate and when he did, he was out of time. It's not like he was pulling the horse up.

Bad beat, you hate it, it stings, and you move on. Everybody has lost a race like that but they have also won a race like that. And Rosario's mount did finish in 11 4/5ths. Hardly pulling up in my book.

Hope that makes sense EZ.

Thanks for checking in. I wouldn't have seen this if you hadn't brought it to my attention.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR: THX for your professional opinion. I did play Agent Creed in a Derby Wars Game and was a bit frustrated he did not win. The mitigating factors you write about are important here to understand the big picture. THX again.

[str]

OK STR: THX for your professional opinion. I did play Agent Creed in a Derby Wars Game and was a bit frustrated he did not win. The mitigating factors you write about are important here to understand the big picture. THX again.

Of course you were frustrated. That is a real tough way to lose.

Wanted to add two quick things EZ.

The announcer was also wrong when he called the winner as making a move but "it's too late".

Also, the winner was trapped from just past the 3/8ths pole until just past the 1/8th pole with nowhere to go. He was indeed the best horse but... still hurts to lose like that.

Tough beat EZ but nice pick on a solid, live horse at 5-1 trying to beat that 3-5 shot. I like it !

All the best my friend.

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX STR I am usually trying to beat odds on ponies. Move on like you said.

[lesterdymond]

STR I have a question.

why would a horse player use a key box as wager option ?

[str]

STR I have a question.

why would a horse player use a key box as wager option ?

One scenario might be if you like a horse to win but the odds are very short. You choose to risk not getting those short odds if it wins and using , for instance two other horses in the second spot. But because the takeout is higher in exactas than it is in win bets typically, I would assume for instance, you key the 1 horse but it is 4-5. You really dislike the 2nd and 3rd choices to do much of anything, and the longer shots have a running style that works with your theory of how the 1 horse will win. You have seen the will pays and those prices are enough above the win bet/ collect amount that you are willing to take a swing at using the 1- with another horse or two that are longshots. I guess. But it would be an action only Type of bet not a serious one if you were focused on building profit IMO.

Too me, it would be all about the math and probability. Pretty easy to figure out if you see the will pays and the prices don't change drastically.

It is an odd bet to make more than in a particular situation IMO. And it might not be the best betting option from an odds standpoint. More times than not, it probably isn't.

But... Before simulcasting, if my high school buddies were going to meet for a day at the track, I would typically pool like 200 each with another guy and start betting every race that day or night and we would split everything. Is that a solid way to make money. NO. Not close. But, it served a purpose of partnering with one of my best and longest time friends and basically betting every race, not risking that much, and trying to pay for dinner and have fun.

It worked one year for my friend and I when we met for the Belmont Stakes at Laurel. Think it was 2013. Palace Malice was in the Belmont and he was a play for sure. We got to talking about it and I said we should decide how much we are going to bet and bet it to win. Think he was a little over 10-1. We were up on the day so we were going to bet maybe 200 to win. My friend says to me, why not bet him in the exacta, triple and super. The answer was simple. Because you are risking leaving money behind if he wins and you don't hit the gimmicks.

He said yeah, but we will split 2k if he wins but screw it, lets try and win 10k. So I said, ok and we played it that way. Was it the proper betting structure for the money. No, I can't imagine that it was. But because it was a novelty type day to see my friends and have a rare day at the races with them, and we were up on the day, I said what the hell.

We bet, if memory serves, about a 10 dollar exacta keying PM with three other horses . A 1 dollar triple keying PM on top with those three horses and a 1 dollar super doing the same thing. We bet the rest to win. That is pretty close to what we the bet I think.

Was it a smart bet? No. Was it a good bet? No. But did we hit all 4 plays? Yes. Totally got lucky. Still laugh about it today every now and then. It was a great betting story. We will talk about it until we are all gone. And because of that, betting it that way, that day, WAS the right thing to do. Because it is a memory that will last forever. You can't buy those. But if my friends were not at the track with me that day, I would not have bet anything except a win bet. And I might not have even been there and bet at all. Who knows.

So IMO, if the will pays do not add up to more payout than a straight bet you have to play the percentages and play for the long haul. And the additional payout has to be enough to risk having the winner and losing the bet.

But if you are just screwing around with friends, you are up on the day and leave that mathematical mind set in the car when you go in, you can wager like that. Sometimes it might be worth it according to the math, but more often than not, it probably is not.

Thanks for the question.

That's my opinion. What's yours?

[lesterdymond]

No further questions your honor

thank you for the detail !

[JBEX]

hey str

have not heard anything about kingsbarns but really think he'll be going in the haskell .. realize that's not exactly a reach

the pegasus was a good spot factoring he was training up to the belmont and it was run only 1 week later

todd probably will be loaded up at saratoga with forte,tapit trice and possibly one more that doesn't come to mind right off the top..assuming they're healthy can't see kb running up there..possibly if one of them isn't for any reason guess it opens up the possibility


i really see a big race for him if he runs in the haskell..i think a combination of him having more experience and the odd trip with the 7 being aggressive inside of him (think it was approximately from the 5/16th to 11/16th mark) really threw him off (realize you don't necessarily share the same opinion about that) .. if he runs like he did (style-wise) in his 1st two races think he will be formidable no matter who the competition is

[str]

hey str

have not heard anything about kingsbarns but really think he'll be going in the haskell .. realize that's not exactly a reach

the pegasus was a good spot factoring he was training up to the belmont and it was run only 1 week later

todd probably will be loaded up at saratoga with forte,tapit trice and possibly one more that doesn't come to mind right off the top..assuming they're healthy can't see kb running up there..possibly if one of them isn't for any reason guess it opens up the possibility


i really see a big race for him if he runs in the haskell..i think a combination of him having more experience and the odd trip with the 7 being aggressive inside of him (think it was approximately from the 5/16th to 11/16th mark) really threw him off (realize you don't necessarily share the same opinion about that) .. if he runs like he did (style-wise) in his 1st two races think he will be formidable no matter who the competition is

Agree that the Pegasus was a good place to return.

The Haskell does make sense because he is loaded everywhere else. Not a lot of other options it doesn't seem. Should be step back up in class for him if he goes but he will have that last race under his belt which could help offset that at least somewhat.

Todd sure is stacked for Saratoga with the ones you mentioned at least.


I do think he will be ready to improve off that last race. No doubt in my mind. But IMO, he MUST go back to more relax and less wanting to run off down the backside. A lot of that comes with maturity and each race helps but it did look like the Derby got into his head somewhat with that torrid pace. He needs to overcome that. Sometimes they do with no problem but sometimes they don't. That goes to being smart enough to overcome it. He showed he was early on but now he needs to show it again. Sure hope he does.

And really hope he gets beck to running like he did in his first couple of races. That is his key to improvement I think.

Keep me posted if you see anything.

Thanks JBEX !

[jamesrav]

question: Local bettors or Betfair ? In an ideal situation of 'true' odds (forget tote odds), what population of bettors would you think is coming up with the 'right' odds for a horse? Say there's a discrepancy on a single horse, the Betfair bettors are laying at 12 and the US bettors (at the track or off-track) have the true odds at 7 at race-time (but a smaller pool compared to the total trading volume shown on Betfair). Whose odds would you trust more in the long run?

[JBEX]

Agree that the Pegasus was a good place to return.

The Haskell does make sense because he is loaded everywhere else. Not a lot of other options it doesn't seem. Should be step back up in class for him if he goes but he will have that last race under his belt which could help offset that at least somewhat.

Todd sure is stacked for Saratoga with the ones you mentioned at least.


I do think he will be ready to improve off that last race. No doubt in my mind. But IMO, he MUST go back to more relax and less wanting to run off down the backside. A lot of that comes with maturity and each race helps but it did look like the Derby got into his head somewhat with that torrid pace. He needs to overcome that. Sometimes they do with no problem but sometimes they don't. That goes to being smart enough to overcome it. He showed he was early on but now he needs to show it again. Sure hope he does.

And really hope he gets beck to running like he did in his first couple of races. That is his key to improvement I think.

Keep me posted if you see anything.

Thanks JBEX !

no problem str

i agree that there may have been a "show speed" carryover from the derby and he has to relax more on the backstretch..think there's a good chance he'll finally get a more normal pace scenario in his next race..if he was capable of running that professionally in his debut he certainly has it in him to do it again

have to think if they are pointing for the haskell that he might remain at mth till that race .. if so not shipping (finally) and a quieter atmosphere couldn't hurt his cause either

race is on 7/22
will let you know if i see anything

[str]

no problem str

i agree that there may have been a "show speed" carryover from the derby and he has to relax more on the backstretch..think there's a good chance he'll finally get a more normal pace scenario in his next race..if he was capable of running that professionally in his debut he certainly has it in him to do it again

have to think if they are pointing for the haskell that he might remain at mth till that race .. if so not shipping (finally) and a quieter atmosphere couldn't hurt his cause either

race is on 7/22
will let you know if i see anything

Staying at Monmouth would be great for the horse, if it is possible.

Guess we will know when he works next where he is.

Thanks for the updates JBEX !

[str]

question: Local bettors or Betfair ? In an ideal situation of 'true' odds (forget tote odds), what population of bettors would you think is coming up with the 'right' odds for a horse? Say there's a discrepancy on a single horse, the Betfair bettors are laying at 12 and the US bettors (at the track or off-track) have the true odds at 7 at race-time (but a smaller pool compared to the total trading volume shown on Betfair). Whose odds would you trust more in the long run?

Great question James. I'll do my best to break it down and try and give you an overview of what I saw.

Local bettors:

Having not been at the track daily for 20 years now, I am somewhat dated as to what is actually happening in todays world at the track. Back in the mid 70's - 2001 the answer on locals being well informed on True Odds in my estimation , would have been about 1 out of 200 at a minimum. More likely 1-3 or 400. It got bettor in the 90's and as I was leaving but it was a joke in the 70's and even the early 80's.
And back then, there were not a lot of tickets to construct. One daily double, exactas, WPS, and one triple in the last race.
Charlestown had the Big Exacta. You had to hit the 5th race exacta to be alive and then you had to turn that ticket in to place a straight exacta on the 6th. Hit them both, you win the Big Exacta. Really cool at the time.

Remember, my timeline of racetrack education started in 1972. By 1976 I was a trainer and out on my own. I certainly did not know when I started working there about the level of the gamblers mindset and honestly, I was so locked in on learning the game from a horsemen's point of view that the level of understanding for the gambler did not matter to me at all. So I would say that the level of actual understanding of betting was very weak. As was mine at the time I have to assume.

Don't get me wrong, there were players that could pick winners at a well above average. Some REAL good handicappers. But money management and proper betting skills, well that was very rare if I happened to come across someone like that.


Andy Beyer and those few people that were in his circle DID understand money management. His 1st book came out in 1975. I never read it because I was an asst. trainer and had so many responsibilities as we were going for a world record of winners that year.
At the age of 19-20 , the very last thing on my mind everyday I was at the track which was probably all 365 of them, was betting.
All effort was pointed towards my job. I can't recall but I would be very surprised if I even bet 2 dollars on racing that entire year.

Off topic, Having still not read Andy's 1st book, maybe that is a good beach book for me to read someday.

Having money management and ticket construction ability was all but nonexistent from what I saw. Andy's or Lenny Ragozin's crowd, sure. But most all the fans, no way.

As I said, by the 80's-90's, information from Beyer and others were making headlines and the crowd slowly started to get smarter. But the bottom line on that is, that even today, with all the information that is out there from many different groups, like Beyer, Ragozin, Craig and David with Timeform as well as others, there are still an awful lot of players that have very little thought process about value, ticket construction, what the actual bias might be, if one exists on a card, and things like that. And the information that is in places like the racing form, etc. that point those biases or bounces or whatever out, are only as good as the person that came up with that number or theory.


If Andy was doing every track, it would be different. But he is not. And even Andy struggled with biases. I saw and heard that 1st hand. When I first realized that they existed, it took me a couple of years to have a decent grip on them. And once I did, I could probably count on one hand how many people I knew, that understood what a bias was, and why it existed in the state of Maryland.

And be it Andy, the sheets, or anyone in any occupation, you are only as good as the weakest link of your chain. It rears it's ugly head every time.
The people working for you have to be right and like most businesses, the larger they get, the harder it is to have the level of quality control it takes to be at your best. Why? Because if an employee is THAT good, he or she will eventually move open to a higher position either there or somewhere else. How many great people can you replace in any job environment without losing at least some quality?

But getting back on track, no pun intended, let's talk about Betfair.

I have never been on Betfair. I assumed it was not available for any tracks I would play. Is it? Please let me know.

Whose odds would I trust more, handicappers or Betfair? Betfair I have to assume. Again, if it is available for U.S. tracks please let me know.

Why Betfair? Well, I have told you about a typical crowd on a typical day in the 70's,80's and 90's and I have no doubt that todays crowds are many times sharper than they were then. But even with that, I have to assume that Betfair is a well run operation and has a full understanding of what it takes to set a solid price. If they didn't , they would be out of business.
But with today's makeup of players which has to include the syndicates that dump big money in very late, that the odds are more consistent towards fair market value than they have ever been. At least on the horses those syndicates bet on late. That is my understanding of what those syndicates are about.
Plenty of under bet horses get late action these days . That said, there are serious over bet horses still. Especially in big name races. The casual players come out on big days, like this years Derby and Preakness. There were horses in both fields who were roughly 20-1 that should have been 80 or 100 -1 . Predictable after last years fiasco with Rich Strike.
There were also 1-2 shots that probably should have been more like 4-5 or even money. You will probably always see that.


So with all that, doesn't it have to be Betfair's odds as more trustworthy? It would seem so to me.

Sure like to hear you opinion James.

Thanks again for a great question about an important part of the puzzle.

A topic that should have more discussion for sure. I wish I was an expert on the subject. But I never put the time in to get the education needed to be one.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR Befair fixed odds used to be available At Monmouth but they have been replaced by another company I believe in offering fixed odds at Monmouth.

[jamesrav]

Betfair (and Orbit - which is also an Exchange, mostly used by Asian bettors since they are the exchanges used by AsianConnect and BetInAsia - it uses Betfair odds but creates its own liquidity [somehow] since I and others cannot lay horses) are completely off limits to anyone living in the US. Sad tale for US bettors. But back to the topic ...I'm not sure why Betfair or Orbit bettors - non US citizens - would be better at setting odds compared to the locals. They seem to consistently bet down strong favorites below true odds, and that allows some other horse (or occasionally 2) to get a boost. Whether that 'other horse' deserves those higher payouts courtesy of Betfair , or the locals are actually wrong about that horse and are over-estimating its chances of winning, is something I am in the process of testing.

forgot to mention that Betfair does cover US tracks, but US bettors cannot take part in betting them.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR Befair fixed odds used to be available At Monmouth but they have been replaced by another company I believe in offering fixed odds at Monmouth.

More than four out of five horseplayers in the United States want access to fixed odds betting options, according to a survey commissioned by BetMakers Technology Group, a global leader in wagering technology and provider of the only legal, regulated fixed odds horse racing solution in the U.S.
The findings illustrate a clear desire from consumers for innovation in horse race wagering, where traditional pari-mutuel betting pools dominate the landscape. Fixed odds wagering -- which locks in a price at the time of the wager, like sports betting -- is only available currently in the state of New Jersey, where BetMakers' technology powers MonmouthBets, the first and only legal fixed odds wagering platform in the country. Fixed odds also has been legalized but is not live yet in Colorado, while several other states are working on legislation to do the same.

[Easy-Rider 66]

How do you feel about fixed odds on the horse game STR?

[JBEX]

Betfair (and Orbit - which is also an Exchange, mostly used by Asian bettors since they are the exchanges used by AsianConnect and BetInAsia - it uses Betfair odds but creates its own liquidity [somehow] since I and others cannot lay horses) are completely off limits to anyone living in the US. Sad tale for US bettors. But back to the topic ...I'm not sure why Betfair or Orbit bettors - non US citizens - would be better at setting odds compared to the locals. They seem to consistently bet down strong favorites below true odds, and that allows some other horse (or occasionally 2) to get a boost. Whether that 'other horse' deserves those higher payouts courtesy of Betfair , or the locals are actually wrong about that horse and are over-estimating its chances of winning, is something I am in the process of testing.

forgot to mention that Betfair does cover US tracks, but US bettors cannot take part in betting them.

wouldn't this be under-estimating the horse's chance of winning? if they are over-estimating it's chances of winning the the locals are going to take that price because it offers value

[str]

Betfair (and Orbit - which is also an Exchange, mostly used by Asian bettors since they are the exchanges used by AsianConnect and BetInAsia - it uses Betfair odds but creates its own liquidity [somehow] since I and others cannot lay horses) are completely off limits to anyone living in the US. Sad tale for US bettors. But back to the topic ...I'm not sure why Betfair or Orbit bettors - non US citizens - would be better at setting odds compared to the locals. They seem to consistently bet down strong favorites below true odds, and that allows some other horse (or occasionally 2) to get a boost. Whether that 'other horse' deserves those higher payouts courtesy of Betfair , or the locals are actually wrong about that horse and are over-estimating its chances of winning, is something I am in the process of testing.

forgot to mention that Betfair does cover US tracks, but US bettors cannot take part in betting them.

Q. I'm not sure why Betfair or Orbit bettors - non US citizens - would be better at setting odds compared to the locals. They seem to consistently bet down strong favorites below true odds, and that allows some other horse (or occasionally 2) to get a boost. Whether that 'other horse' deserves those higher payouts courtesy of Betfair , or the locals are actually wrong about that horse and are over-estimating its chances of winning, is something I am in the process of testing.


A. So if Betfair is posting a number that is below where it should be, it is most likely protection from the favorite players that will over bet that favorite. You can bet they have a algorithm or some sort of process that helps them set the lines based on customer reaction as well as true odds. Small adjustments all the same probably but I have to think they get the true odds and massage them if it's a leading trainer/ rider combo, post position or whatever is going to attract the over betting.

While some bettors are probably extremely well trained to find these true value horses, from everything I saw, the average Joe Public is not trained to do so at all. Further, players that play multiple tracks which I saw quite a bit of when I was there, spend so little time on races, it's like they are just gravitating towards the favorites. It was shocking to me how they would turn a page and bet another track and could make their decision in about 2 minutes.

Certainly there are plenty of sharp, focused handicappers in attendance or betting from home but I sure did see a lot of players that could not have had any chance over time to win due to their own bad habits. And sure, those with an edge were usually betting more so the percentage difference of player was not as much of a factor.


So I think both scenarios will offer some layer of protection within the testing of your study.

But at the end of the day, I would go with the business model over the public. And the larger the public on a certain race or card, the stronger the business model would be.
I'll mention again this years Ky. Derby. Look back at the form and odds of some of those longer shots. Several must have been off by 30 or 40-1. That is crazy. I assume though that Betfair , if you compared the track and Betfair odds side by side knew that would be the case and adjusted down at least somewhat understanding that the crazy longshots would be over bet this year due to last years fiasco.

A very interesting topic. Really appreciate you presenting the question.

Please keep me posted on the results of you testing . That should be very interesting to see.

Thanks.

[jamesrav]

wouldn't this be under-estimating the horse's chance of winning? if they are over-estimating it's chances of winning the the locals are going to take that price because it offers value

If Betfair has the correct (higher) odds compared to the local bettors (lower payout), then the local bettors are over-estimating the horses chances (example: Betfair believes predicting a dice roll should pay 6.0 on a $1 bet, the local bettors think 4.5 is correct). The aspect I'm testing is whether Betfair is occasionally offering 8.0 for the dice roll, and the local bettors say 6.0. It seems to occur when Betfair is concurrently offering 1.8 on a coin-flip, and the locals say 2.0. That 1.8 'error' has to go somewhere.

[jamesrav]

turns out that the Betfair partnership at Monmouth resulted in a 12% commission coming out of winning bets (compared to 2 or 3% at Betfair and Orbit). So there was little incentive for using the exchange, might as well just go to the track. I wonder what deal BetMakers made.

[str]

How do you feel about fixed odds on the horse game STR?

It would likely be that I am all for it.

But... we have to see the fine print and make sure what we would get is what we think we would be getting.

If it comes, hopefully it is as simple as it should be and not some hidden fee stuff that would hurt the horseplayer.

But in today's world, it's not about what they tell you, it's about what they don't tell you EZ.

So, we will see.

[str]

turns out that the Betfair partnership at Monmouth resulted in a 12% commission coming out of winning bets (compared to 2 or 3% at Betfair and Orbit). So there was little incentive for using the exchange, might as well just go to the track. I wonder what deal BetMakers made.

Exactly the fine print crap I'm talking about. Good Ole New Jersey. Lol.

[str]

If Betfair has the correct (higher) odds compared to the local bettors (lower payout), then the local bettors are over-estimating the horses chances (example: Betfair believes predicting a dice roll should pay 6.0 on a $1 bet, the local bettors think 4.5 is correct). The aspect I'm testing is whether Betfair is occasionally offering 8.0 for the dice roll, and the local bettors say 6.0. It seems to occur when Betfair is concurrently offering 1.8 on a coin-flip, and the locals say 2.0. That 1.8 'error' has to go somewhere.

Your study could show that when a horse is a very low odds favorite, the value could be in some of the other odds within the race and when the favorites are all higher prices the value could be in those favorites.

In all probability an edge Does exist within both ways of showing odds. Being a business model on the set odds side, they probably use the same process each time being as they cannot change when more money shows on a horse than anticipated. So if you had the true odds on the favorite and/or the second choice and saw it bet down live, you could most likely find value in the other horses at the track as it now exists.
If there was no clear big favorite, chances are you could find value in the first 3-4 favorites that probably were penciled in to receive more play from the fixed odds side.

I would be really interested in hearing what you find. It seems to make sense that there would be value in most races.

Please keep us posted as you go.

Thanks again.

[str]

I saw that Two Phil's was retired after winning the Ohio Derby easily but sustaining an ankle injury.
A broken sesamoid was the problem and horses rarely if ever come back from that particular injury to race anywhere near their previous level. It is a far cry from a simple chip in the front of the ankle that can be removed. Totally different injury to as important an area in the leg as probably any.

This was not one of those cash grab things for stud duty. This was just a real tough break in that it looked like he was really improving with each race and had a chance to make some noise this summer and fall.

The good news is, he should probably go on to live a full life and be sound doing so, as long as all goes well.

Because he ran as good or better a race in the Ky. Derby to be 2nd while forwardly places early as anyone, I thought he deserved a mention at least.

[JBEX]

I saw that Two Phil's was retired after winning the Ohio Derby easily but sustaining an ankle injury.
A broken sesamoid was the problem and horses rarely if ever come back from that particular injury to race anywhere near their previous level. It is a far cry from a simple chip in the front of the ankle that can be removed. Totally different injury to as important an area in the leg as probably any.

This was not one of those cash grab things for stud duty. This was just a real tough break in that it looked like he was really improving with each race and had a chance to make some noise this summer and fall.

The good news is, he should probably go on to live a full life and be sound doing so, as long as all goes well.

Because he ran as good or better a race in the Ky. Derby to be 2nd while forwardly places early as anyone, I thought he deserved a mention at least.

that's a shame..believe larry rivelli thought he was one of (if not the) best horse('s) he ever trained and Larry is one of the best in the midwest for a long time

[Jellymancan]

I saw that Two Phil's was retired after winning the Ohio Derby easily but sustaining an ankle injury.
A broken sesamoid was the problem and horses rarely if ever come back from that particular injury to race anywhere near their previous level. It is a far cry from a simple chip in the front of the ankle that can be removed. Totally different injury to as important an area in the leg as probably any.

This was not one of those cash grab things for stud duty. This was just a real tough break in that it looked like he was really improving with each race and had a chance to make some noise this summer and fall.

The good news is, he should probably go on to live a full life and be sound doing so, as long as all goes well.

Because he ran as good or better a race in the Ky. Derby to be 2nd while forwardly places early as anyone, I thought he deserved a mention at least.

This horse was on the up, str. Good call as this does deserve to be mentioned to me.

The best thing is that he's alive as hopefully everything heals properly. He was trending toward having (possibility) a special year and I was looking forward to seeing him at the SPA this summer.

All the best.

[jamesrav]

"Your study could show that when a horse is a very low odds favorite, the value could be in some of the other odds within the race and when the favorites are all higher prices the value could be in those favorites."

that one seems to be the primary source of opportunities. I've been placing bets on Orbit since the 26th (8 days ; 347 total at various odds) and there does seem to be an odds range that is quite encouraging. The main takes are: The Betfair bettors have the odds pretty much set in stone 3 minutes prior to 0 MTP. They know who the favorite will be , even if the local bettors currently 'appear' to be debating among 2 horses. I say 'appear' since the late smart money then decides which of those two is the favorite, which then matches up to Betfair very closely. Essentially the local bettor odds always 'gravitate' to the Betfair odds as the race approaches, but sometimes there's a sizeable disagreement regarding 1 or 2 horses.

So who is correct on those 1 or 2? Considering Betfair seems so prescient about the odds well before the race starts, it might seem foolish to even think the local bettors are more accurate on those 1 or 2. But maybe they are. And worst case, if Betfair is correct, the bets made at race time are essentially Betfair Starting Price (BSP) payouts, and that should be close to break-even before commissions (the guy who runs Bet Angel humorously said in a recent video that anyone, even someone with no knowledge, can basically break-even before commissions betting on Betfair, which is somewhat true if you opt for BSP and manage your betsize properly).

The downside of this idea is primarily the time involved in sitting in front of the screen for 8 or 9 hours. You really cannot leave the chair for long, there are races every few minutes during certain hours ; finally thins out at the end of day. And you can't quit either, a loss streak at these higher odds is inevitable - today I had a streak of 16 in a row, but then 4 wins out of the next 11. Loss streaks of 10 are common. But it does appear if you can get 20% above local bettor 'true' odds at Betfair, it's likely profitable. Same old story: on the few wins you get, they have to provide out-sized payouts.

[str]

"Your study could show that when a horse is a very low odds favorite, the value could be in some of the other odds within the race and when the favorites are all higher prices the value could be in those favorites."

that one seems to be the primary source of opportunities. I've been placing bets on Orbit since the 26th (8 days ; 347 total at various odds) and there does seem to be an odds range that is quite encouraging. The main takes are: The Betfair bettors have the odds pretty much set in stone 3 minutes prior to 0 MTP. They know who the favorite will be , even if the local bettors currently 'appear' to be debating among 2 horses. I say 'appear' since the late smart money then decides which of those two is the favorite, which then matches up to Betfair very closely. Essentially the local bettor odds always 'gravitate' to the Betfair odds as the race approaches, but sometimes there's a sizeable disagreement regarding 1 or 2 horses.

So who is correct on those 1 or 2? Considering Betfair seems so prescient about the odds well before the race starts, it might seem foolish to even think the local bettors are more accurate on those 1 or 2. But maybe they are. And worst case, if Betfair is correct, the bets made at race time are essentially Betfair Starting Price (BSP) payouts, and that should be close to break-even before commissions (the guy who runs Bet Angel humorously said in a recent video that anyone, even someone with no knowledge, can basically break-even before commissions betting on Betfair, which is somewhat true if you opt for BSP and manage your betsize properly).

The downside of this idea is primarily the time involved in sitting in front of the screen for 8 or 9 hours. You really cannot leave the chair for long, there are races every few minutes during certain hours ; finally thins out at the end of day. And you can't quit either, a loss streak at these higher odds is inevitable - today I had a streak of 16 in a row, but then 4 wins out of the next 11. Loss streaks of 10 are common. But it does appear if you can get 20% above local bettor 'true' odds at Betfair, it's likely profitable. Same old story: on the few wins you get, they have to provide out-sized payouts.

Neither approach will be right all the time. It sounds like it comes down to the player needing to set parameters within his/her betting scheme to best identify an edge and sticking to it once it has survived the test of time.

One thing the player has going for them is that Betfair is going to lean in the same fashion for the same situation every time as long as that calculation is working. They don't care about being right, as much as they care about making a long term profit. Sometimes they might know they are off a little but they must read the players and handle to get their math from in order to maximize that profit.

I have written about pro gamblers in this thread before, at least the ones that I knew well while I was at the track, and yes, the time involved can be an awful lot of work. The question always comes down to, yes you can win, but is it worth the time put in? The money per hour average can be difficult to say the least. And there will always be losing runs. They balance out if you are disciplined but they can shake your faith if you are not fully committed and NOT reckless, but instead methodical and machine like with your decisions.

That's what I witnessed.

[Jellymancan]

Str, curious of your opinion for the jockey suspension of two weeks for Torres. It involved race 2 on Monday at Belmont. I believe a suspension is warranted, but the amount was surprising to me. Do you think a jockey like Irad, Jose or Prat would have received that long or are they sending a message with Torres (think he was suspended a couple months ago)? No rush on this, thanks.