[str]

ran like a 3-1 ml going off at 8-1..shouldn't have drifted that high imo

The board speaks loudly when it is cold on a firster that otherwise looks solid.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The board speaks loudly when it is cold on a firster that otherwise looks solid.

Hey STR: a question on your thoughts on where the money shows? How much credence do you put into that scenario?
I really do not put much emphasis on where the money is going especially if a horse is cold on the board in relation to the ML. I have seen a lot of ponies maybe 3/1 on ML go off at 10/1 or so and score. I think I consider it more important a horse that is maybe 15/1 on ML bet down to 4/1 for instance.

And what about all the dead money in the pools? People betting names, numbers, colors etc? or using suspect PP's. Consider the 2018 KY derby for instance. My Boy Jack went off 2nd choice to Justify. I wonder if it had anything to do with Jack being in his name?

Interested to get your take STR. Thx in advance.

[JBEX]

hey str

bel R4 #3 chalet beach (10-1)


interesting 3up msw at belmont..
field is loaded with 2 chad browns,a pletcher,big pedigree jonathan thomas debuter and depaz doesn't look impossible..both chads and todd's have already run big races..


so let me say I will probably lose lol but all these obvious things will be factored in to their prices..mine a homebred by a solid euro sire whose avg winning distance is rather low for a stallion from over there..like classy gone west as the dam sire and this mare has been very productive especially on turf ..turf obviously what she is meant for..but the thing that interested me most is the bullet 4f breeze out of 97 horses..does that do anything for you as far as this one trying the turf today ? I mean this one's obvious turf but to be able to do that at belmont on the dirt is pretty impressive

[str]

Hey STR: a question on your thoughts on where the money shows? How much credence do you put into that scenario?
I really do not put much emphasis on where the money is going especially if a horse is cold on the board in relation to the ML. I have seen a lot of ponies maybe 3/1 on ML go off at 10/1 or so and score. I think I consider it more important a horse that is maybe 15/1 on ML bet down to 4/1 for instance.

And what about all the dead money in the pools? People betting names, numbers, colors etc? or using suspect PP's. Consider the 2018 KY derby for instance. My Boy Jack went off 2nd choice to Justify. I wonder if it had anything to do with Jack being in his name?

Interested to get your take STR. Thx in advance.

Q. I really do not put much emphasis on where the money is going especially if a horse is cold on the board in relation to the ML.

A. Good. IMO, you shouldn't. I did a lot of research on money lines and how they are made way back when I first started training and I feel they are for the most part, useless. The exception to that is with firsters. Why? Because if the lines maker has a firster at a higher than 8-1 ML, they are assuming and don't really know anything. Probably weak breeding, weak trainer, whatever. I mean, who finds out through clockers, or whomever that a horse is terrible? Lol. Nobody.
Because it is obvious to everyone that the horse is probably going to be 15-1 or whatever, you do not need a lines maker to tell you that. Then, if the money shows in the win pool and double and exacta pools, THAT is information worth noting. Doesn't mean go bet. Just means note it as you are deciding what to bet.

If a firster is 2-1 morning line, that is really no help either. Probably by and out of great bloodlines, working like Ruffian or from a barn that has a High % and has a top rider. So who needs a ML for that? Nobody.

But... the only time a morning line is helpful IMO with a firster is if the horse is a lower odds like 3-1 ML and the horse goes off, 9-1. THAT, is info that you did not know beforehand. That horse either had great, bloodlines, fast works, solid connections, or something that made it 3-1 ML. But it is cold on the board and probably the pools. That cold stuff must speak loudly to you when trying to figure out a race with firsters.

That is why I said what I said about ice cold on the board speaking loudly.

I personally feel that firsters are the only type of horse I would even glance at a morning line for info. Morning lines do not take pace, or a lack of pace into consideration. They are made days in advance. Without scratches, they cannot possibly be using race construction which is essential to understanding pace. And pace makes the race IMO, so for me, they are useless. Also, the odds makers, depending on which track we are talking about, can be really good at what they do, like in NY or really bad at what they do, which I've seen plenty.

I wrote in here years ago all about lines makers but am happy to talk more on why I find them for the most part totally useless if you would like.
More often than not, it is kind of like the guys on the pregame NFL telling you all about how KC has Mahomes, Kelce and they score a lot. Gee thanks. All you are trying to do is figure out laying or taking 8 points. Lol.
It's useless information because it lacks any depth or true match up analysis. A total waste of time in most cases, but certainly not in New York. That guy is very sharp. But remember, he has no benefit of scratches or current information because it is done days in advance. You use it the last 20 minutes before the race. He has to set it, days ahead of time. So it is usually outdated. Well meant, but outdated.

Q. And what about all the dead money in the pools? People betting names, numbers, colors etc? or using suspect PP's. Consider the 2018 KY derby for instance. My Boy Jack went off 2nd choice to Justify. I wonder if it had anything to do with Jack being in his name?

A. Always has and always will be dead money like favorite numbers, names, etc. Because it is always in every pool to a small extent, it's all part of the deal I guess. Don't know about Jack being 2nd choice. You could be on to something with that . Especially in a spectacle like the Derby. For regular horse players, that race is like New Years Eve to a drunk.

Let me know if you want to talk more about morning lines. I was able to actually watch Clem Florio do it in Md. for years up in the press box. I talked to a lot of writers about it as well. Not Beyer, (no thanks), but Tommy Atwell, Vinnie Perrone, both DFRF writers for years in Maryland. Dick Jerardi ( probably the writer I respect the most of all the handicappers. The guy is GREAT !). Others as well. It was very interesting. Happy to do it EZ. Just let me know.

Take care.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR Thx a lot. good take. I think you covered the bases on what I was inquiring about. and Yeah My Boy Jack went off at 6.70/1 in the Derby 2018 the 2nd choice by a whisker. Good info you provided on FTS.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Do not know if you are aware STR but the ML Maker for NYRA is David Aragona from DRF/TImeform.

[str]

hey str

bel R4 #3 chalet beach (10-1)


interesting 3up msw at belmont..
field is loaded with 2 chad browns,a pletcher,big pedigree jonathan thomas debuter and depaz doesn't look impossible..both chads and todd's have already run big races..


so let me say I will probably lose lol but all these obvious things will be factored in to their prices..mine a homebred by a solid euro sire whose avg winning distance is rather low for a stallion from over there..like classy gone west as the dam sire and this mare has been very productive especially on turf ..turf obviously what she is meant for..but the thing that interested me most is the bullet 4f breeze out of 97 horses..does that do anything for you as far as this one trying the turf today ? I mean this one's obvious turf but to be able to do that at belmont on the dirt is pretty impressive

Your overview I totally agree with. All of it. That breeze IS very eye catching isn't it? So it does not do anything for me as to trying the turf. I don't think that nice work had anything to do with it. But what it does do, is tell me that if this horse is quick off it's feet out of the gate, the horse will be there early. That's a big if because of the trainer stats showing nothing with firsters in his career. The gate work Aug. 20th is fairly decent. Not great but certainly not bad. The rider is a front end rider ( boy do they hate that when I say it, but it is true). He is very solid on and near the lead. So is that a giveaway? I don't know. I think, that some money will show if the horse is that quick but it remains to be seen if the horse is educated enough to be able to have the poise to load, stand and break well to be in contention early which you would assume is at least somewhat necessary.
About that trainer, I swear his name rings a bell with me. Can't place it and maybe I just knew someone else with that name at some point long ago. But the name does ring a bell.
Anyway, that work IS impressive.
The horse that caught my eye is the 4. The Jonathan Thomas firster.
GL JBEX !

[str]

Do not know if you are aware STR but the ML Maker for NYRA is David Aragona from DRF/TImeform.

He is as solid as you will find setting ML's. He's excellent at what he does . I have total respect for him and his analysis.

[Easy-Rider 66]

He is as solid as you will find setting ML's. He's excellent at what he does . I have total respect for him and his analysis.

yeah he gives picks on the respective NYRA sites for SPA/BEL/AQ. thx again STR.

[JBEX]

Your overview I totally agree with. All of it. That breeze IS very eye catching isn't it? So it does not do anything for me as to trying the turf. I don't think that nice work had anything to do with it. But what it does do, is tell me that if this horse is quick off it's feet out of the gate, the horse will be there early. That's a big if because of the trainer stats showing nothing with firsters in his career. The gate work Aug. 20th is fairly decent. Not great but certainly not bad. The rider is a front end rider ( boy do they hate that when I say it, but it is true). He is very solid on and near the lead. So is that a giveaway? I don't know. I think, that some money will show if the horse is that quick but it remains to be seen if the horse is educated enough to be able to have the poise to load, stand and break well to be in contention early which you would assume is at least somewhat necessary.
About that trainer, I swear his name rings a bell with me. Can't place it and maybe I just knew someone else with that name at some point long ago. But the name does ring a bell.
Anyway, that work IS impressive.
The horse that caught my eye is the 4. The Jonathan Thomas firster.
GL JBEX !

thanks for the feedback..like the idea that the jockey named possibly might have had to do with getting the horse out quick..wasn't up to the task but all in all like what he showed going in ..even though the trainer a big negative on the turf..seen trainer's name around for a while..he was the general manager of golden gate fields recently and might still be..limited amount of horses the last few years


your horse ran big in my race..looked like maybe he couldn't change leads earlier with the 8 outside of him..won't be a maiden for long

[JBEX]

this question might be a little corny ..but asking anyway lol..

R4 @ belmont (2yo msw @ 1 mile) earlier today todd had a homebred for bobby flay ..frankel out of a monteju mare who was stakes placed
and 1 winner from 1 starter ..horse did nothing and went off at 7-1

for a trainer like todd who gets to run some of the most expensive well bred horses out there,you think getting a shot to work with an elite euro pedigree horse is an interesting challenge ..something a little out of the ordinary from what he usually works with ?? obviously this one showed very little in his debut but let's say in addition to the bloodlines the horse showed a lot of promise coming up to the race

[str]

this question might be a little corny ..but asking anyway lol..

R4 @ belmont (2yo msw @ 1 mile) earlier today todd had a homebred for bobby flay ..frankel out of a monteju mare who was stakes placed
and 1 winner from 1 starter ..horse did nothing and went off at 7-1

for a trainer like todd who gets to run some of the most expensive well bred horses out there,you think getting a shot to work with an elite euro pedigree horse is an interesting challenge ..something a little out of the ordinary from what he usually works with ?? obviously this one showed very little in his debut but let's say in addition to the bloodlines the horse showed a lot of promise coming up to the race

I tried to watch a replay but can't see it without signing up. So, looking at the chart the horse was within 2 lengths of the lead at about the 1/2 mile pole and from the comments, the rider was tucking in to save some ground prior to swinging out turning for home, which one would think means he felt like the horse was in contention at least somewhat. At the 1/8th pole he is still within 5-6 lengths and gets beat about 10 lengths or a little less and I have to think the rider had kind of let off the gas peddle at that point.
So, I don't get the impression that the horse ran terrible looking at the chart. Charts can be deceiving though and a replay is the best bet.
Without seeing the race I can't see what the rider had under him but my impression is that he didn't run a terrible race. But again, very limited info. I say that because he could have chocked up and needs a tongue tie, bled a little, or blinkers, different bit, or any number of things. Or, he is just slow. Lol.
As for Todd and an odd type challenge, you are right if it's a lot of trainers but honestly, maybe some of that gets lost when every young horse you have is crazy expensive. The stock he must get every year in babies is probably 30-50 million dollars worth. That's mind boggling. No clue how many babies he gets a swing at every year but it's probably closer to 75-100 than it is 25-50. Unreal !

[JBEX]

I tried to watch a replay but can't see it without signing up. So, looking at the chart the horse was within 2 lengths of the lead at about the 1/2 mile pole and from the comments, the rider was tucking in to save some ground prior to swinging out turning for home, which one would think means he felt like the horse was in contention at least somewhat. At the 1/8th pole he is still within 5-6 lengths and gets beat about 10 lengths or a little less and I have to think the rider had kind of let off the gas peddle at that point.
So, I don't get the impression that the horse ran terrible looking at the chart. Charts can be deceiving though and a replay is the best bet.
Without seeing the race I can't see what the rider had under him but my impression is that he didn't run a terrible race. But again, very limited info. I say that because he could have chocked up and needs a tongue tie, bled a little, or blinkers, different bit, or any number of things. Or, he is just slow. Lol.
As for Todd and an odd type challenge, you are right if it's a lot of trainers but honestly, maybe some of that gets lost when every young horse you have is crazy expensive. The stock he must get every year in babies is probably 30-50 million dollars worth. That's mind boggling. No clue how many babies he gets a swing at every year but it's probably closer to 75-100 than it is 25-50. Unreal !

was a little harsh with nothing but I'll let you look at the race.. around 1:53 (hours) in is Maggie's paddock analysis (which I didn't watch) and the race itself is in the 2:04 - 2:05 range.. this would actually be valuable info with how well bred she is and the bad effort.. should be some value next out


https://youtu.be/xAAZ3_ObD1s

[str]

was a little harsh with nothing but I'll let you look at the race.. around 1:53 (hours) in is Maggie's paddock analysis (which I didn't watch) and the race itself is in the 2:04 - 2:05 range.. this would actually be valuable info with how well bred she is and the bad effort.. should be some value next out


https://youtu.be/xAAZ3_ObD1s

Thanks for the link.
This is why you need a replay. Soooo much more to see and note seeing her running.

Here is what I saw:
She fought the rider down the backside and never really relaxed and took a breath. If it was up to her, she would have run to the lead and then run out of gas. There was not relax, breath or any understanding of what was taking place. She basically thought she was working 5/8ths or something like that.
When she was hooked outside about the 1/4 pole, which happened fast, and while she never really leveled off early, it only became worse after being hooked. Her head went up, she was looking at that outside horse, forgot to switch leads, kind of dropped the bit because she lost any focus or competing in that moment and the rider was wrapped up before the 1/8th pole. He tapped her with the stick to try and get her refocused, not to run again as much as to just get her mind back on the bridle and trying to follow what the rider wants, not what she thinks she wants.
It would be easy to say she needs blinkers, and she does, but she might work her way through that with another start or two and relish seeing the competition. I heard that she was a late scratch at Saratoga, acting badly in the paddock and got loose on the track warming up. She was much more professional than that today, so she isn't stupid.
All in all, let's not give up on her. Instead, let's follow her and see what Todd adds or not equipment wise next out. I think she improves with racing. I would be surprised if the rider does not want to ride her back, unless he gets a call on a favorite in the same race next out. That's understandable.
I think once she "gets it", she will win this type of race. Good looking filly and obviously the blood is there.
Keep an eye on her JBEX.

[JBEX]

Thanks for the link.
This is why you need a replay. Soooo much more to see and note seeing her running.

Here is what I saw:
She fought the rider down the backside and never really relaxed and took a breath. If it was up to her, she would have run to the lead and then run out of gas. There was not relax, breath or any understanding of what was taking place. She basically thought she was working 5/8ths or something like that.
When she was hooked outside about the 1/4 pole, which happened fast, and while she never really leveled off early, it only became worse after being hooked. Her head went up, she was looking at that outside horse, forgot to switch leads, kind of dropped the bit because she lost any focus or competing in that moment and the rider was wrapped up before the 1/8th pole. He tapped her with the stick to try and get her refocused, not to run again as much as to just get her mind back on the bridle and trying to follow what the rider wants, not what she thinks she wants.
It would be easy to say she needs blinkers, and she does, but she might work her way through that with another start or two and relish seeing the competition. I heard that she was a late scratch at Saratoga, acting badly in the paddock and got loose on the track warming up. She was much more professional than that today, so she isn't stupid.
All in all, let's not give up on her. Instead, let's follow her and see what Todd adds or not equipment wise next out. I think she improves with racing. I would be surprised if the rider does not want to ride her back, unless he gets a call on a favorite in the same race next out. That's understandable.
I think once she "gets it", she will win this type of race. Good looking filly and obviously the blood is there.
Keep an eye on her JBEX.

great insight that only you could give str..this is the type of situation you want as a handicapper but of course I could have never seen what you did..horse could be anything if she gets her head together with some experience and schooling ..whatever the case value will be there off that effort ..will keep an eye out..thanks str

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: a question about our favorite trainer(LOL) Baffert's decision to scratch Medina Spirit from the PENN DERBY at PARX because he drew post #9 in a 10 horse field. Medina is a speed horse so I would think that to be a decent draw(based on clean right eye theory). Can you shed some light on why Baffert made that choice? I guess there are other speed horses in the race at first glance of the entries. If you need to look at the field you can find it thru Into Mischief or Street Sense. Thx in advance.

[JBEX]

hey str

throw one at you on a no big track day..

del R6 #1 watchthebourbon (15-1)

if you toss the turf races at cnl his figs late last year through the spring are pretty good in here and in the race 3 back he was up close to a fast pace (get figure makers can be off)..has speed and the rail so might not be a difficult trip for the bad jock
..these are the types of races bad.. jocks are supposed to win every once in a while wouldn't you say ? fair hill work pretty nice for a horse at this level..at some odds what do you think ?



.

[JBEX]

hey str

throw one at you on a no big track day..

del r6 #1 watchthebourbon (15-1)

if you toss the turf races at cnl his figs late last year through the spring are pretty good in here and in the race 3 back he was up close to a fast pace (get figure makers can be off)..has speed and the rail so might not be a difficult trip for the bad jock
..these are the types of races bad.. Jocks are supposed to win every once in a while wouldn't you say ? Fair hill work pretty nice for a horse at this level..at some odds what do you think ?



.

scratched lol

[str]

hey str

throw one at you on a no big track day..

del R6 #1 watchthebourbon (15-1)

if you toss the turf races at cnl his figs late last year through the spring are pretty good in here and in the race 3 back he was up close to a fast pace (get figure makers can be off)..has speed and the rail so might not be a difficult trip for the bad jock
..these are the types of races bad.. jocks are supposed to win every once in a while wouldn't you say ? fair hill work pretty nice for a horse at this level..at some odds what do you think ?



.

I looked before I saw you scratch post.

The horse is a Lady Olivia's pet. Lol.

Every time it gets beat for 5k they raise it up.
Can't imagine how it ran that well that one time. Bias ??
Would hate to be feeding the horses that finished behind him.

[str]

Hey STR: a question about our favorite trainer(LOL) Baffert's decision to scratch Medina Spirit from the PENN DERBY at PARX because he drew post #9 in a 10 horse field. Medina is a speed horse so I would think that to be a decent draw(based on clean right eye theory). Can you shed some light on why Baffert made that choice? I guess there are other speed horses in the race at first glance of the entries. If you need to look at the field you can find it thru Into Mischief or Street Sense. Thx in advance.

Was he scratched because of the post. I highly doubt it. But he had to say something.


He breezed quickly on the 17th, walked around the barn on the 18th, trained on the 19th(maybe), trained on the 20th, entry day but could still have medication in him which is perfectly legal, but had to start coming off that medication by the 21st . Maybe was a little rocky and he determined it best to point for another race further out. That is fine and happens to every trainer from time to time. If that guess is correct, he can't say that to the media so he says what he says.


I guess the media has to ask him questions but at this point it is my opinion that rarely does the truth pass across this guys lips when he is speaking to them. Thirty positives can create that scenario I guess. I wouldn't know.

All the best EZ !

[Easy-Rider 66]

Was he scratched because of the post. I highly doubt it. But he had to say something.


He breezed quickly on the 17th, walked around the barn on the 18th, trained on the 19th(maybe), trained on the 20th, entry day but could still have medication in him which is perfectly legal, but had to start coming off that medication by the 21st . Maybe was a little rocky and he determined it best to point for another race further out. That is fine and happens to every trainer from time to time. If that guess is correct, he can't say that to the media so he says what he says.


I guess the media has to ask him questions but at this point it is my opinion that rarely does the truth pass across this guys lips when he is speaking to them. Thirty positives can create that scenario I guess. I wouldn't know.

All the best EZ !

OK STR thx for clearing that up. I doubted it to a certain degree as well that the Post was the reason. Have a good day.

[JBEX]

hey str

cd R8 #3 beautiful empire (6-1)

first time starter for mark casse..cost a bunch relative to the pedigree..couple of works at kee then about 2.5 months off;3 at saratoga including the phenomenal work on 8/29.. 1 solid work at churchill 8 days ago

you think along the way it was up in the air when he would run this horse or he had this race or meet targeted?

this is a saratoga quality field so might be some value on mine

[str]

hey str

cd R8 #3 beautiful empire (6-1)

first time starter for mark casse..cost a bunch relative to the pedigree..couple of works at kee then about 2.5 months off;3 at saratoga including the phenomenal work on 8/29.. 1 solid work at churchill 8 days ago

you think along the way it was up in the air when he would run this horse or he had this race or meet targeted?

this is a saratoga quality field so might be some value on mine

It looks like he had to know early on at Saratoga that the horse would not be ready for that meet. But because he kept the horse there, that would speak positively in that, he was probably at Saratoga most days if not all the time and he wanted to keep the horse with him. A lesser horse would have been swapped out for the stall for a runner able to run at Saratoga, if that scenario happened with Casse. So, nothing but positive vibes by him training at Saratoga. You just don't take a so so baby there.

All good works since August, lots to like that you mentioned. Solid rider.
No reason to think this horse can't compete against these. I see nothing to dislike.
Good luck if you play.

[JBEX]

It looks like he had to know early on at Saratoga that the horse would not be ready for that meet. But because he kept the horse there, that would speak positively in that, he was probably at Saratoga most days if not all the time and he wanted to keep the horse with him. A lesser horse would have been swapped out for the stall for a runner able to run at Saratoga, if that scenario happened with Casse. So, nothing but positive vibes by him training at Saratoga. You just don't take a so so baby there.

All good works since August, lots to like that you mentioned. Solid rider.
No reason to think this horse can't compete against these. I see nothing to dislike.
Good luck if you play.

like that just by being kept there even thought she didn't run that the horse was highly thought of..brad cox's horse is a half to essential quality by uncle mo..doesn't get much better than that..thanks str

[JBEX]

gulfstream


R5 #5 r girl's werth it (8-1)

hey str.. wanted to see what you think of the above


to me..

want to try and beat todd who I think will be significantly lower.
to me #1 is the other main contender


excellent trainer overall %, first timers and at meet

decent multiple stud fee to sale price although the dams stats as a winner and producer explains some of it

sire, dam sire combo strictly speed.. the 5.5f vs 6 should be a help


solid works although was a 3 week gap at the halfway point.. 2 of the 3 works from the gate off that break

[JBEX]

gulfstream


R5 #5 r girl's werth it (8-1)

hey str.. wanted to see what you think of the above


to me..

want to try and beat todd who I think will be significantly lower.
to me #1 is the other main contender


excellent trainer overall %, first timers and at meet

decent multiple stud fee to sale price although the dams stats as a winner and producer explains some of it

sire, dam sire combo strictly speed.. the 5.5f vs 6 should be a help


solid works although was a 3 week gap at the halfway point.. 2 of the 3 works from the gate off that break

another race worth looking at is R3 @ laurel ..real high quality field of 2yo msw's turf sprinting..trying to decide between the two debuter's by "quality road" (1,6)..they are homebreds and dam info on both is excellent ..not surprising of course with an elite sire like qr..think staying off the rail with the better turf jock might be the tiebreaker for me

[str]

gulfstream


R5 #5 r girl's werth it (8-1)

hey str.. wanted to see what you think of the above


to me..

want to try and beat todd who I think will be significantly lower.
to me #1 is the other main contender


excellent trainer overall %, first timers and at meet

decent multiple stud fee to sale price although the dams stats as a winner and producer explains some of it

sire, dam sire combo strictly speed.. the 5.5f vs 6 should be a help


solid works although was a 3 week gap at the halfway point.. 2 of the 3 works from the gate off that break

Checks plenty of boxes as a firster. I can see why you would land there. I would have no problem with this play.
The race has another interesting baby firster with the 3 Empress Ellie but the money should show with her breeding. No problem trying to beat Todd as he does get bet down regularly.
You see things I look for with these babies. I would disagree if I had a viable reason. But other than the race having more than one interesting firster other than Todd's, there is enough there as you pointed out, to make a case.
Interesting race. GL if you play it!

[str]

another race worth looking at is R3 @ laurel ..real high quality field of 2yo msw's turf sprinting..trying to decide between the two debuter's by "quality road" (1,6)..they are homebreds and dam info on both is excellent ..not surprising of course with an elite sire like qr..think staying off the rail with the better turf jock might be the tiebreaker for me

This one seems WIDE open. Plenty of interesting firsters here. How about the 7 horse who has already breezed at Santa Anita, Saratoga, and Belmont. And a 1K sire sells for 110K this summer. The 10 sold for 350K at Timonium. I mean, probably should have but that's not the Timonium sales I knew back in the day. Lol.
With the 11 burning early, it sets up for a horse that probably has some experience or is not all hyped up out of the gate. The 3 probably fits that mold as Kate is a graduate of my mentor and we have talked at length about better with 2nd timers and better still with 3rd time out. Just don't know if that one is fast enough. But plenty to see in that race for sure.
Your logic makes perfect sense too me in your write up.
Very cool races, both of them.
Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

Checks plenty of boxes as a firster. I can see why you would land there. I would have no problem with this play.
The race has another interesting baby firster with the 3 Empress Ellie but the money should show with her breeding. No problem trying to beat Todd as he does get bet down regularly.
You see things I look for with these babies. I would disagree if I had a viable reason. But other than the race having more than one interesting firster other than Todd's, there is enough there as you pointed out, to make a case.
Interesting race. GL if you play it!

what I look for (and not saying it's right) with well bred horses is either homebreds or costs something at auction to reflect the pedigree..for the most part I eliminate if it doesn't meet that qualification so couldn't play #3..the good thing about her to me is how good that trainer is with msw and firsters..very undervalued also


going to look at your other response

[JBEX]

This one seems WIDE open. Plenty of interesting firsters here. How about the 7 horse who has already breezed at Santa Anita, Saratoga, and Belmont. And a 1K sire sells for 110K this summer. The 10 sold for 350K at Timonium. I mean, probably should have but that's not the Timonium sales I knew back in the day. Lol.
With the 11 burning early, it sets up for a horse that probably has some experience or is not all hyped up out of the gate. The 3 probably fits that mold as Kate is a graduate of my mentor and we have talked at length about better with 2nd timers and better still with 3rd time out. Just don't know if that one is fast enough. But plenty to see in that race for sure.
Your logic makes perfect sense too me in your write up.
Very cool races, both of them.
Thanks JBEX !

yeah I noticed the 7 ...not often you'll see a 100x + multiple stud fee to auction price..west point a big operation so guess they decided she'd be an east coast horse and being stabled at saratoga( as you've said before) a big positive..Weaver such a horrible investment overall is a bit of a turn off for me though


was considering the 10..nothing wrong with debut especially from a wide post..unlucked out again with the outside post at kd and ran fairly evenly back of the pack..tough track and competition and that's certainly excusable..races pretty equally spaced..trainer is another money burner overall and with maidens but decent with shippers and turf ..she would be my 3rd choice..agree it possibly could set up nicely for the 3 and wasn't aware that she came up under your mentor..off the top have seen her name around for quite a while

thanks and appreciate the feedback on both str

[JBEX]

This one seems WIDE open. Plenty of interesting firsters here. How about the 7 horse who has already breezed at Santa Anita, Saratoga, and Belmont. And a 1K sire sells for 110K this summer. The 10 sold for 350K at Timonium. I mean, probably should have but that's not the Timonium sales I knew back in the day. Lol.
With the 11 burning early, it sets up for a horse that probably has some experience or is not all hyped up out of the gate. The 3 probably fits that mold as Kate is a graduate of my mentor and we have talked at length about better with 2nd timers and better still with 3rd time out. Just don't know if that one is fast enough. But plenty to see in that race for sure.
Your logic makes perfect sense too me in your write up.
Very cool races, both of them.
Thanks JBEX !

scratched so that should change the whole complexion of the race

[JBEX]

wasn't aware gulfstream race is on the all weather track..haven't been following it recently

[JBEX]

laurel


broke really bad but made up some nice ground well into the srretch..consider the average winning distance of the dam sires progeny is almost the length of the belmont stakes they are probably happy with that effort..something maybe I should have considered capping it


gulfstream

mine got creamed on the tote but the 7 (40-1) ruined her chances pressing early on..your 3 ran a very nice race saving ground on the rail..didn't miss by much

[JBEX]

belmont

R2 #7 sirius princess (5-1)


hey str


was wondering what you thought of her debut..that's the type of running line i like to see going an oddball 5.5 to 7f..get paco riding and sciacca might help to fetch a bit of a price (blessing and a curse lol) ..nice 3f move on the 18th

[str]

belmont

R2 #7 sirius princess (5-1)


hey str


was wondering what you thought of her debut..that's the type of running line i like to see going an oddball 5.5 to 7f..get paco riding and sciacca might help to fetch a bit of a price (blessing and a curse lol) ..nice 3f move on the 18th

This race looks like most players will quickly settle for trying to figure out which firster, the 1,2 or 3 to play. No real eye catching existing form from the others. That might help at least somewhat pricewise. I DO like the even run going 5.5F and now moving to 7/8ths. That should have this horse forwardly placed if they want to. The work makes no sense whatsoever. It had to be more than just a 3/8ths breeze. Think about it.
Runs 5 1/2F and 15 days later you work 3/8ths, then wait 14 days to run 7/8ths??? Weird. But not if it was a 7/8ths type work that was 15,15,14,14,12 2/5ths, 12,12. If THATS the case, it is a real nice set up. I used to do that all the time. Maybe he does as well. If that's the case, the horse might set off a bit more, like 5 lengths and pick it up as they go. Paco suggests aggressive and nearer to the lead so mixed messages there but that's ok with me. I did not realize that Gary's numbers were that weak. I see what you mean.
All in all, if you are trying to beat Chad, Irad, and Clement, and why not try, this one makes sense too me. Probably worth a swing as I see nothing to discourage trying.

On a side note, from the earlier post, following Kate, a graduate of my mentor, she is a clone of most of us when it comes to managing babies. Improve 2nd out, win 3rd out. Keep an eye on that one next time. But it won't be much price. Kind of fun to watch a movie unfold just the way you figured it would though. That stuff so few people see, but you and others that read here can.
Best of luck if you play.
Thanks JBEX !