[Louisvillekid1]

Pleasure is all mine , ty...

[cutchemist42]

Str, thanks so much for providing us that Fountain of Youth write up. I'm not joking when I say I spent 30mins watching the replay on 1 screen and your write up on the other.

What it got me thinking about something I had never thought about before when it comes to body language. I always thought the ears went back as the horse was exerting effort and that the wind was just pushing them back. Is the ear position then a sign about how the horse is feeling?

[str]

Str, thanks so much for providing us that Fountain of Youth write up. I'm not joking when I say I spent 30mins watching the replay on 1 screen and your write up on the other.

What it got me thinking about something I had never thought about before when it comes to body language. I always thought the ears went back as the horse was exerting effort and that the wind was just pushing them back. Is the ear position then a sign about how the horse is feeling?

I would not say it is a sign of how they are feeling. Not when it comes to racing. If they are ill, you can see it in their eyes , ears, and all over very similar to humans.
But as for when they are racing or warming up, I would not look for that or try and read much into it. Now if the ears are up and they have made the lead for instance, that is a sign that they are relaxed and or waiting for the jock to communicate with them. This really only pertains to a horse on the lead. You won't see much of this with horses anywhere else except maybe last.
I mentioned the ears because it is easy to see and thought it would help you and others be able to see what is transpiring with an individual horse and rider. It is my no means an end all as to what is going on but it does help people see and understand the communication between rider and horse as well as the relax portion of what is going on with the horse. But it can also mean that the horse is distracted and paying attention to something else they see which is not a good thing during a race. That is why I say it is by no means an end all. As for the wind, that does not push the ears back and forth as a rule.
As a side note, you hope to not see those ears go up at the 1/16th pole when a closer has made the lead. What you worry about there is that the horse is slowing down or loafing and can get caught by a horse that would not have caught them had the horse stayed on task to the finish line. We have all had our share of those bad beats.

Lastly, I hope that you see that indeed Rosario did NOT push his mount forward to get into a duel and really had no choice in the matter other than to strangle his mount which would have landed him well back early as well as in trouble with the trainer in all probability. I say that because it is important to differentiate between opinion and fact when it come to people talking about what happened in a race. If you cannot see things for yourself and make your own judgement it makes it hard as many posters at other websites or publications can make convincing arguments about their opinion when indeed they cannot back what they say up with the replay. I saw a headline in the racing form about Rosario deciding to duel early. And, after watching they tape at the various points, you now know that is not true. I guess I am just saying to be careful . Plenty of things written are right but more than a few are wrong. Being able to break down film will allow you to know the difference and that can only help you in the long run.
I hope all of that helped.

[JBEX]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...nstagrand_123#

[JBEX]

hey str

I've asked you something like this before but wanted to get your opinion once more ...an angle I like to use involving speed figures and running lines


75 beyer @ 6f..9 horse field..
no bias and fair pace

3-4 * 4-5 * 5-7* 7-9 (7th by 9 lengths)

6f =2.4/length so winner rounded off runs a 96 beyer

this horse comes back in 3-5 weeks* (reasonable time off) and at within a furlong of last race..a mid to high 80's beyer (4-5 lengths slower than last race)
puts him in the hunt vs today's field.

if there is an edge this horse carries forward from his last effort (maybe not but I believe there is) is it conditioning along with the feel that this group isn't as
tough as last time out.ie he's laying a few lengths off the pace but doing it easier than his previous start so a confidence builder ??


as a trainer would you feel good about this horses chances going up against an
easier field considering how he ran last out ??


I have used this for decades and really believe horses improve off these lines if all the other things* (class,dist,surface)
make sense..I prefer these types to ones that close and finish in the money with a troubled trip (comment line not replays).. nothing more obvious than that

[cutchemist42]

Yes. I guess that sounds right.

That said, a large part of what makes all we have discussed happen is at least two other things that I must bring up.

First, distance races are typically more strung out in lengths from front to back than sprints are. So it's not necessarily waiting until the 1/8th pole in sprints to go by, that is just what you typically see. If we see a speed horse in a sprint only run to the 3/8ths pole we all agree that the effort was pathetic, right? So we assume speed will carry further in a sprint even if we feel the speed will fade. Hope that makes sense.

Second, and really important is that in a lot of cases, jocks don't get to move exactly when they want to . The ones with a controlling position do, but not horses inside that need to go to keep from getting covered up into the far turn or those inside that will have to check if they don't move prematurely due to the outside horse getting ready to lean on them into the turn.
So some jocks in almost every race are driven to move when they do based on the horses around them , therefore other jocks. Horses that respond when asked in these situations make jocks look good. Horses that don't make jocks look bad. Riders can screw up a winning mount for sure. But horses can screw up a winning ride as well by not being there or being willing to go when a rider needs them to. Many don't have 10 seconds to get going. Most have about 3-5 seconds. So often enough, the other riders in the race end up making decisions for your horse. And a lot of those decisions work out fine but plenty don't. That is why understanding what you are seeing and watching replays is HUGE if you are able to.
Being a guy that was doing this before simulcasting this was easy. Follow one track and be better than your opposition. But in today's world, playing multiple tracks puts players at a disadvantage but only to those that more closely follow a circuit than the player does. And because the old school way is dying off, that disadvantage slowly becomes less and less.
Again, that is why I stress players being able to understand as much as they can when watching a race. The more you see, the smarter you are in the parimutuel pool of players you are competing against.

One last thing,if you notice, often times when closers run by stubborn speed horses that are hanging around or show on paper that they might, they will run by them staying fairly tight to them. And once clear, move over slightly to throw dirt in their face. Staying well away from a horse you are running by through the lane, when it's just the 2 of you, allows the speed horse to not be as discouraged as it would be with dirt smacking it in the face. Next time you see a speed horse come back and catch a closer that was 2 lengths clear, see if the speed horse was clear of dirt in it's face. If so, in my mind, that is all on the rider of the closing horse. Again, it was good, great, and HOF riders that taught me that . And it is so true.

Hey guys,

Was recently just browsing the thread again and came across this exchange around post 2102 (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post26920458)

It's interesting to me but I'm not sure I followed it fully. Part of me feels like Im getting it a bit based off personal memory of races but just wish to clarify.

So all else being equal, but considering the mile is 1-turn vs 2-turns....

• Speed horses in sprints/1-turn miles are used to being passed around the 1/8th or deeper in the stretch? In contrast, Speed horses in 2 turn routes are used to being challenged sooner, perhaps during the turn and before the stretch?
• So in this case, you attack a lone speed horse sooner in a sprint race vs a route race as it was written that speed carries farther in the 1-turn race?

[Easy-Rider 66]

By Belinda Stronach

What has happened at Santa Anita over the last few weeks is beyond heartbreaking. It is unacceptable to the public, and as people who deeply love horses, to everyone at The Stronach Group and Santa Anita.

The sport of horse racing is the last great sporting legacy platform to be modernized. If we expect our sport to grow for future generations, we must raise our standards.

Today, I’m announcing The Stronach Group will take the unprecedented step of declaring a zero tolerance for race day medication at Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields. These Thoroughbred racetracks will be the first in North America to follow the strict International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) standards.


Any thoughts on this announcement STR. Thx in advance.

[JBEX]

perplexed how the anti-medication stance helps with breakdowns.. seems like a red herring to me.. think i remember str saying he didn't think that was a practical idea a ways back

[str]

hey str

I've asked you something like this before but wanted to get your opinion once more ...an angle I like to use involving speed figures and running lines


75 beyer @ 6f..9 horse field..
no bias and fair pace

3-4 * 4-5 * 5-7* 7-9 (7th by 9 lengths)

6f =2.4/length so winner rounded off runs a 96 beyer

this horse comes back in 3-5 weeks* (reasonable time off) and at within a furlong of last race..a mid to high 80's beyer (4-5 lengths slower than last race)
puts him in the hunt vs today's field.

if there is an edge this horse carries forward from his last effort (maybe not but I believe there is) is it conditioning along with the feel that this group isn't as
tough as last time out.ie he's laying a few lengths off the pace but doing it easier than his previous start so a confidence builder ??


as a trainer would you feel good about this horses chances going up against an
easier field considering how he ran last out ??


I have used this for decades and really believe horses improve off these lines if all the other things* (class,dist,surface)
make sense..I prefer these types to ones that close and finish in the money with a troubled trip (comment line not replays).. nothing more obvious than that

Very sorry for the delay everybody.




Absolutely JBEX. Once the race starts the horse will find itself in a position of superiority almost right away. That is, with all things being equal. The one thing those numbers can do is to take claimers numbers and show where they belong. I am not nearly as much a believer when the horse goes up to the number to try and compete because so much can go into why the horse ran so well last out. But, going down the scale to be able to run back to the same well beaten race and be right there, well, typically the horse , when finding itself well in the thick of things while running the same race that provided a well beaten effort last time, will be encouraged and indeed run BETTER than it might have. What I mean is the last race the horse was trying but was 4th by 5 lengths turning for home and slowly faded back to 7th by 9 lengths. This time turning for home, the horse is right in there . The rider will ride harder and the horse will be happy to try harder all because they are now in some control and not simply outrun.
It is any competitors, albeit a person or a horses mental edge to have a win right in front of them. It is easy to put forth more effort that last 1/8th of a mile when it is for a win instead of for 6th or 7th.
When and if you find these types a any kind of price worthwhile, I would be right with you in thought process. IMO this is a very solid, timetested angle. I think Beyers can be misleading when looked at on the high side, as I said, but looking at them backwards or from the down side, is rock solid in my book.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Hey guys,

Was recently just browsing the thread again and came across this exchange around post 2102 (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post26920458)

It's interesting to me but I'm not sure I followed it fully. Part of me feels like Im getting it a bit based off personal memory of races but just wish to clarify.

So all else being equal, but considering the mile is 1-turn vs 2-turns....

• Speed horses in sprints/1-turn miles are used to being passed around the 1/8th or deeper in the stretch? In contrast, Speed horses in 2 turn routes are used to being challenged sooner, perhaps during the turn and before the stretch?
• So in this case, you attack a lone speed horse sooner in a sprint race vs a route race as it was written that speed carries farther in the 1-turn race?

I apologize but I need a little clarity on exactly what you are asking. I have been pretty under the weather the past week and one thing that came with this sickness is my ability to think. Kinda feel like I've been on drugs all week. I've been a real airhead.
I'm feeling better but not all the way back yet. Lol.

[str]

By Belinda Stronach

What has happened at Santa Anita over the last few weeks is beyond heartbreaking. It is unacceptable to the public, and as people who deeply love horses, to everyone at The Stronach Group and Santa Anita.

The sport of horse racing is the last great sporting legacy platform to be modernized. If we expect our sport to grow for future generations, we must raise our standards.

Today, I’m announcing The Stronach Group will take the unprecedented step of declaring a zero tolerance for race day medication at Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields. These Thoroughbred racetracks will be the first in North America to follow the strict International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) standards.


Any thoughts on this announcement STR. Thx in advance.

I know I discussed this in great length within this thread. I don't know where but it's in here. Let's try and find it so all the facts are in front of us.

Thank you for posting this EASY. I did not know this occured. I'm just sitting here shaking my head at this one.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I know I discussed this in great length within this thread. I don't know where but it's in here. Let's try and find it so all the facts are in front of us.

Thank you for posting this EASY. I did not know this occured. I'm just sitting here shaking my head at this one.

Lasix is a potent diuretic that when administered before a race results in a horse losing on average between 25-30 pounds of weight by race time. A lighter horse can run faster and longer.

In addition, Lasix also masks the use of other performance-enhancing drugs by making it more difficult to catch cheaters through urine and blood testing, which begs the question: Why would almost 100% of horses run on Lasix when only around 5% bleed?

STR: This is a couple of statements from a article on the Paulick Report. If you have any comments on these sentiments would appreciate it. And in your experience would you agree that only about 5% of horses bleed? Thx in advance.




Great question Easy and what a hotbed topic that is loaded with opinion on both sides of the debate.

Before I get started , it seems to me that one of the really disturbing things I see in today's world is when parties disagree they are more often than not extremists on both sides. It seems like darn near every statement is to an extreme with as many misleading phrases or half truths as can possibly be thrown in to a discussion as possible.

That said, a lighter horse can NOT necessarily run longer and faster as evidenced by results everyday. So the wording of the statement is terrible. I get what they are TRYING to say . If what they wrote was correct who needs a form? Just bet on the small skinny horse each race right? Lol.
We know that doesn't work.

There was a time in the late 80's and 90's when lasix WAS helping to mask other newer drugs that people were using illegally. Either they were not allowed and going undetected or they were being given after the window of time ( 24 hours for bute and 48 hours for others) before a race when only Lasix is allowed to be administered. Either one was a rule violation.

Testing finally caught up by about 90-95 % of those drugs in the mid to late 90's when a lot more money was committed to testing and new equipment was purchased. Of course, new drugs continued to emerge. But by then , much more money was being put into testing so it helped to offset the new stuff.

One thing that never gets discussed is the testing lab itself. First off, you have to test for a drug for it to show up in almost all cases. Typical testing was for bute, lasix, and if I am not mistaken, about 15+/= other drugs. Some of these were random choices and some were for illegal drugs that had been detected before. Cost only allowed for so much in the way of testing. Most of these tests were for commonly used drugs that every trainer needed to use for sickness, acute lameness from stepping on a pin or something like that ( not getting a limper over to the paddock), etc. Basically drugs that were carried by all vets but only given in emergencies. And there was testing for the obvious against all laws drugs that were forbidden.
For the most part it is my opinion that most positives but certainly not all were simply mistakes and very few were a deliberate attempt to cheat. However some absolutely were for cheating purposes only.
But all that changed in the late 80's when instead of getting a positive and hoping that owners did not leave you, which was what had possibly happened in the past, hell , owners starting seeing multiple positives and wanting to GIVE those trainers their horses. It was incredible. It seemed like very few owners had respect for the game anymore, it was all about winning and if it took cheating, what the hell. Go for it !

I have to tell you Easy, it rocked my world. It really did. I had so much respect for the game and here I am listening to some dumbass say " if you ain't cheatin , you ain't tryin". I wanted to punch that jerk right in his mouth but I had already done that before for something else and taken to the Stewards and had I done it a 2nd time I would have been it deep crap. Not sure if I ever told that story in here. It's actually pretty funny. And I was a lot younger back then. That ship sailed long time ago.
Let me know if I haven't and if you care, it might be worth a read.

Anyway, let's get to the last part of this question. And let me remind everyone that reads this that I am no advocate for horse racing, trainers, lasix or any of that. I am an advocate of the truth and to better understand a game I loved and played as hard as I could within the rules. Period. And I do my very best to try and relay that to all that read this. Please keep that in mind.

Q. 100% run on Lasix, and 5% actually bleed?

A. False. Totally false. If you scoped every horse that ran on lasix today after the race, my guess is that roughly 1/2 would show some signs of bleeding. It can be clearly seen in their lungs with a flexible scope that while feeling uncomfortable or weird for the horse, it does not hurt to do. What is seen is tiny or larger specs of blood on the walls of the lungs or in the nostril area. Many of that roughly 1/2 will only show a minimum amount or a trace as it is referred to of bleeding, but it IS there.
Then we have to ask ourselves how many more would have bled to some degree without lasix? My guess, about 30% more. That makes it about 70-80% IMO.
So the question begs WHY are so many bleeding?
Sad but simple. The breeding industry, both sire and dam, is now diluted with bleeders. And it was not like that in the 60's or much of the 70's before lasix. I clearly remember nice mares that ran but were never bred to for racing purposes because they bled bad enough for it to show without a scope. As for the future sires, the rumor mill would call out who sired bleeders and/or winded horses ( they can't breathe much past 6 furlongs and sometimes less). Lack of oxygen will trigger bleeding about 90% of the time IMO. Most would get only a few mares if any back in that time period.

For a conclusion to this really important topic, let me opine for a minute.

Fans want a clean game. A game that does not run on lasix. I get that. And it is fine with me. BUT... it will take just as long to undo lasix as it has taken lasix to dilute the breeding shed. If it is force fed too quickly, IMO it will result in some ugly results. It IMO should start with G1 and G2 races with no lasix. Rules will need to be altered so horses can go on and off lasix without penalty of time( currently 3rd change is a year I think). Amount of lasix given will need to be in print for customers and all to see. Full transparency can be the only way away from lasix.
After a year or two, include G3 races, then after more time which will be more obvious by then, all Stakes races.
Leave the claimers for last or there will be no horses to fill cards. Leave maidens alone for as many years as it takes to get non lasix using sires and dams back into the breeding shed exclusively or at least in the large majority. That will take 15-20 years at least. Probably twice that, but it has taken 40 years to get where we are WITH lasix.
Now I am sure that I have left plenty out but let's face it, anything involving this can be solved if you try hard enough. Someone can pick this apart if they choose but that is the direction I would recommend going in if I was in the game.

And yes, they can speed up the process by decades if they simply ban lasix but allow a bunch of other drugs to help prevent bleeding. But if the point is to actually clean up the game, doing this would only give off the perception that the game is cleaning up wouldn't it?

Sadly, my idea would cost many millions of dollars to many owners and syndicates but would truly fix the problem. IMO it would be what is best for the PUBLIC as well as the GAME in the long term.

But at what cost? With all the monetary damage it would undoubtedly cause my guess is that racing will take the latter version of outlawing lasix. That being banning lasix but allowing a bunch of bleeding medications that the public will not see or understand.

Either way somebody losses.

It is a really tough problem to try and deal with.

Hope that helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR> Found this post you made on the Lasix issue. Guess you are surprised the Stronach Group is taking this approach. Thx.

[str]

perplexed how the anti-medication stance helps with breakdowns.. seems like a red herring to me.. think i remember str saying he didn't think that was a practical idea a ways back

You are right JBEX on all accounts.

[str]

OK STR> Found this post you made on the Lasix issue. Guess you are surprised the Stronach Group is taking this approach. Thx.

Thanks EASY !

I just reread the post and agree throughout.

As for the announcement of no race day medication, as a stand alone it makes no sense whatsoever.

I would like to wait and hear what the next steps are being as the devil is always in the details.

I find it hard to believe they can run meets year around under that single statement.

And do know that it was the push for more racing days all across the states in the late 70's that brought most of this on to begin with. Horses used to have time to heal. Nowadays, it's 12 months a year.

Please keep me posted as this goes forward Easy.

Thanks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thanks EASY !

I just reread the post and agree throughout.

As for the announcement of no race day medication, as a stand alone it makes no sense whatsoever.

I would like to wait and hear what the next steps are being as the devil is always in the details.

I find it hard to believe they can run meets year around under that single statement.

And do know that it was the push for more racing days all across the states in the late 70's that brought most of this on to begin with. Horses used to have time to heal. Nowadays, it's 12 months a year.

Please keep me posted as this goes forward Easy.

Thanks.

OK STR will do.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The Stronach Group and Thoroughbred Owners of California have reached a deal regarding the use of Lasix at Stronach-owned Thoroughbred racetracks in California (Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields), according to Daily Racing Form national correspondent Jay Privman.

The agreement paves the way for racing to resume on Friday, March 22, at Santa Anita, which last raced on March 3. The track was closed to racing “indefinitely” March 5 because of a spike in fatal injuries suffered during racing and training since the meet opened on Dec. 26, 2018.

Instead of an immediate ban on Lasix as was suggested in TSG's “Open Letter to the Thoroughbred Industry” released on Thursday by the company's chairman, Belinda Stronach, the diuretic will be eliminated beginning with 2-year-olds in 2020, or foals of 2018. Additionally, the maximum dose of Lasix allowed on race day will be immediately decreased from 10 ccs to five.

More in line with your take on Lasix STR.

[cutchemist42]

I apologize but I need a little clarity on exactly what you are asking. I have been pretty under the weather the past week and one thing that came with this sickness is my ability to think. Kinda feel like I've been on drugs all week. I've been a real airhead.
I'm feeling better but not all the way back yet. Lol.

Sorry for not being clearer. I'll copy and paste something from post 2106 you wrote

A. A one turn mile is a sprint race. Just a long one. But it is a sprint.

The mind set of the sprinter speed horse is not to be hooked around the turn , it is getting hooked at the 1/8th pole. That is where they are used to being challenged for the win.
Not so with a 2 turn or 3 turn mile. The name of that game is relax, not so much in sprints. Of course, you need that with sprinters as well but everything is seemingly in slower motion in relaxed distance type races. You want to go after a distance solo speed earlier. The closing stamina is also very different with the 2 different groups. I hope that makes sense.
I know that some players might shrug off the horse mind set stuff but they really should not. Why does a distance speed horse cut identical fractions and when hooked around the turn , quit but if solo until the 1/8th pole, hang in? While the relax is part of it, it's the mental side quite a bit, that is why.
And this might seem to be over thought or hard for weekend warrior players to grasp but it is not. It is right there for all to see in the form. By understanding WHAT you are seeing in the pp's in association with what we just talked about, many a player will spot this scenario both hang in and surrender from the same horse and hopefully better understand what they see in the pp's. I hope so. It can really help understand what transpires out on the track.
Great question and I hope it helped plenty of players.
Thanks JBEX.

Basically, it was a discussion on the difference between 1-turn mile and 2-turn miles and how the 1-turn mile is still a sprint. I had never seen them as being really different when it came to evaluating the speed horses, but the impression I got is that evaluating speed horses is a bit different in those 2 setups.

Is that true?

[str]

Sorry for not being clearer. I'll copy and paste something from post 2106 you wrote



Basically, it was a discussion on the difference between 1-turn mile and 2-turn miles and how the 1-turn mile is still a sprint. I had never seen them as being really different when it came to evaluating the speed horses, but the impression I got is that evaluating speed horses is a bit different in those 2 setups.

Is that true?

Yes. They are two totally different races.

I reread what I said and feel it is accurate.

Thanks for the clarity. Lol. I have been sick and it turned into walking pneumonia. I'm starting to do better but man, it kicked my ass.

Hope you can see the difference between the two races. Watching the riders hands etc. like we talked about before might help see what they are trying to get their mounts to do in those different types of races.

Good luck.

[JBEX]

hey str

thought this was a decent example of the question I asked you the other day..

GP R12 mcl 35k turf 1 1/8 miles turf for 3yo


#5 shahkaar (20-1)

2nd start... debut below

1 mile turf msw


8-11 /8-8/8-10/9-10... 23:3/47:3/1:11:3/1:35:4

10 horse field and bad trip.. gets a jockey upgrade.. back in 28 days



favorite's last race

#4 blue sky kitten (9-5)

same track distance surface as above.. mcl 35k


2-1 / 2-1/2 /2-1/2 / 2-1/2 .. 24:3 /49:3 /1:13:4 /1:37:2

(2nd by a half last 3 calls.. pretty much the same all the way around)

on beyers #5 race about 7 lengths faster


he's trained by someone who came up under anthony dutrow


https://www.americasbestracing.net/l...ainer-the-rise

[str]

hey str

thought this was a decent example of the question I asked you the other day..

GP R12 mcl 35k turf 1 1/8 miles turf for 3yo


#5 shahkaar (20-1)

2nd start... debut below

1 mile turf msw


8-11 /8-8/8-10/9-10... 23:3/47:3/1:11:3/1:35:4

10 horse field and bad trip.. gets a jockey upgrade.. back in 28 days



favorite's last race

#4 blue sky kitten (9-5)

same track distance surface as above.. mcl 35k


2-1 / 2-1/2 /2-1/2 / 2-1/2 .. 24:3 /49:3 /1:13:4 /1:37:2

(2nd by a half last 3 calls.. pretty much the same all the way around)

on beyers #5 race about 7 lengths faster


he's trained by someone who came up under anthony dutrow


https://www.americasbestracing.net/l...ainer-the-rise

Thanks for that JBEX. He sounds like a Dutrow disciple. Says all the right things as far as I am concerned.

Seeing how much faster the longshots race was, it stands to reason that the price horse needs to be played today. Let me know and good luck. That could be a nice find .

[JBEX]

Thanks for that JBEX. He sounds like a Dutrow disciple. Says all the right things as far as I am concerned.

Seeing how much faster the longshots race was, it stands to reason that the price horse needs to be played today. Let me know and good luck. That could be a nice find .

will do str.. just for clarity I meant the msw race was 7 lengths faster than the mcl 35k.. the figures of both horses last race were #5-70 and #4-72

[JBEX]

Thanks for that JBEX. He sounds like a Dutrow disciple. Says all the right things as far as I am concerned.



Seeing how much faster the longshots race was, it stands to reason that the price horse needs to be played today. Let me know and good luck. That could be a nice find .

out in front the whole way and faltered the last 1/16th of a mile to finish 3rd..1 1/4 lengths behind the winner and a neck behind the 4 (other horse i compared him to) ..he went off 13-1 and the 4 went off 2-1..1 1/8 went in 1:49 flat.. pretty good for mcl $35k

26:30 will get you 15 secs before it goes off.. this is the whole replay show

[str]

out in front the whole way and faltered the last 1/16th of a mile to finish 3rd..1 1/4 lengths behind the winner and a neck behind the 4 (other horse i compared him to) ..he went off 13-1 and the 4 went off 2-1..1 1/8 went in 1:49 flat.. pretty good for mcl $35k

26:30 will get you 15 secs before it goes off.. this is the whole replay show

The MSW races are about 8 - 10 lengths better than the claiming 35k Maidens are. That makes perfect sense. That seems like the norm.
Great pick JBEX. Everything fit, it all made perfect sense. Shame he couldn't hang on but this one either way was a no brainer as to what to look for in a maiden longshot.
Great call !

[JBEX]

The MSW races are about 8 - 10 lengths better than the claiming 35k Maidens are. That makes perfect sense. That seems like the norm.
Great pick JBEX. Everything fit, it all made perfect sense. Shame he couldn't hang on but this one either way was a no brainer as to what to look for in a maiden longshot.
Great call !

thanks str

[str]

A couple of things:

1. We never got a straight answer about all the fatalities at Santa Anita. No surprise because if it was the track surface, they would be liable. If it was the floating of the surface, something they never used to do, that is on the track as well. Was it the GM putting massive pressure on trainers to run when they are not ready and threaten to take away stalls if they don't? (Been there, lived through that.) That is a perfect setup to have horses breakdown. So was it that? Or all of the above. God I hope not. Tim knows better than that. He trained when I did. He knows both sides. There must be a way other than that. But in Calif., maybe not. Maybe they are trying to run too many races with too few horses. Gee ya think? Nobody is shipping in. All they have is one another. Duh.

The public will not be told what actually took place because any way you slice it, it was a bad business model, but hey, they are reducing lasix to 5cc's and none for babies next year ! WOW !!! Management really does care. Nice diversion, everybody is stupid and doesn't realize what they are trying to do. Of course, they won't speak to the 20 or so other drugs that help stop bleeding and if those will be allowed for the babies that cannot have lasix. Shhhh. Let's not talk about that.

2. I am now reading about some garbage that trainers, breeders, vets, whoever, are giving to their horses to lay bone density , or give an xray the impression of more bone density but the reality apparently is that it actually reduces bone density in the long run, which would have to lead to more breakdowns. Are you F'in kidding me? I certainly would not put it past breeders, consignors, pin hookers and those involved in the sales ring. That arena was a disgrace in the 90's. Not everyone, but a solid % of them. The stuff I saw going on after hours at the two year old Ocala sales would make you sick. I can't imagine what it must be like today.

3. I guess the bottom line here is that I am just terribly disappointed and quite frankly, pissed . Not at management as they by and large ( but not every track management,) don't give a damn about the horses, trainers and certainly not the betting public. When you find a track management that does, I mean really does and not the political crap witnessed when the cameras are on, well, that's special. But sadly, that seems very rare from what I am seeing. No, I'm pissed at anyone and everyone actually involved in either topic as they both smell of scandals.

And IMO, if anyone gave horses this bone layering stuff and knew or were warned about the reality that apparently exists, well, live with yourselves. I hope it was worth it. Can't wait to see what the offsprings of those stallions that were given that stuff look like. Wonder how long they will need between races?
It's stuff like this , that when I hear about it, in both instances, that makes me think I should be glad I am no longer part of the sport I loved and am continuing to try to. Stories like these make for very trying times.

[Easy-Rider 66]

That's a tough to the point post STR. Read briefly about that bone drug at another site. Sounds like one big mess. Thx for the take.

[JBEX]

parx R10 today

clm 7.5 n2L @ 6f


no blinkers on or off


paid $127.80


is this most likely a medical/physical issue resolved.. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?






feb 9 @ 7f clm 12.5 n2L

6-5/9-10/9-17/9-25 (field 9)


jan 14 @ 6.5f clm 16 n2l statebred


7-6/7-6/7-12/7-20 (field 9)


dec 22 @ 7f clm 16 n2l statebred

8-14/7-13/5-10/5-12 (field 8)


nov 24 @6.5f clm 25 n2l

4 nk/7-7/4-14/4-15 (field 8)


oct 20 @7f mcl 10

3-1/2-hd/ 1-1/1-1 winner

[str]

parx R10 today

clm 7.5 n2L @ 6f


no blinkers on or off


paid $127.80


is this most likely a medical/physical issue resolved.. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?






feb 9 @ 7f clm 12.5 n2L

6-5/9-10/9-17/9-25 (field 9)


jan 14 @ 6.5f clm 16 n2l statebred


7-6/7-6/7-12/7-20 (field 9)


dec 22 @ 7f clm 16 n2l statebred

8-14/7-13/5-10/5-12 (field 8)


nov 24 @6.5f clm 25 n2l

4 nk/7-7/4-14/4-15 (field 8)


oct 20 @7f mcl 10

3-1/2-hd/ 1-1/1-1 winner

Q. is this most likely a medical/physical issue resolved.. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?


A. My guess would be no, it is not a medical/physical issue resolved.

I looked at the chart to try and see "anything". I see a 7 lb. bug. Did this rider ride her before. And, is the rider a girl? I would be interested in that if you know. Girl riders can sometimes have a rapport with a cheap horse that can really help.

I looked at all the races and it looked like speed and position stayed fairly well all day. Yes, a couple of closers won, but plenty of horses stuck around throughout that were forwardly placed.
From the looks of the chart, I kind of got the feeling that the winner inherited the lead. Last 1/8th in 14. By that I mean, the horse well in front at the 1/8th pole looks like it just stopped. I saw she drifted late. Probably had no idea what to do when she made the lead. Lol.

What I do know is cheap, cheap fillies can jump up and run great for seemingly no reason every now and then. They can also run terrible for seemingly no reason although, with fillies, their menstrual cycle , with some of them can be a big deal. If they run when in heat, some of them just dont run a lick. If she was indeed in heat last out, she would not have been yesterday. They can also be sewn up, to close the vagina area to help with several issues, which sometimes helps but you would never know that and it is a real longshot that it was that.
It could have been any of these things mentioned or something we are not aware of, like a myectomy, which will allow for air to not be shut off when the horse flips their pallet, or any host of other things, or, it just could have been a perfect storm of the race falling apart and her lucking into a win.
Yes, I am stabbing but I have very little to go on.
And sometimes, they just jump up and run well and nobody can put the pieces together. But to that , it is my opinion that just because you ( a trainer) can't figure it out, doesn't mean there was not something or a set of circumstances that did make the horse run better than typically.

Q. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?

A. Yes. But they have to deal with laws, rules, etc. They will usually talk about it, probably today not after the last yesterday as the Stews usually make a jail break after the last race, ( they would get mad at me for saying that but it's the truth). But they don't need to try and figure out why, they just need to make sure that things appear to be on the up and up.

Hope that helps at least a little.

[JBEX]

Q. is this most likely a medical/physical issue resolved.. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?


A. My guess would be no, it is not a medical/physical issue resolved.

I looked at the chart to try and see "anything". I see a 7 lb. bug. Did this rider ride her before. And, is the rider a girl? I would be interested in that if you know. Girl riders can sometimes have a rapport with a cheap horse that can really help.

I looked at all the races and it looked like speed and position stayed fairly well all day. Yes, a couple of closers won, but plenty of horses stuck around throughout that were forwardly placed.
From the looks of the chart, I kind of got the feeling that the winner inherited the lead. Last 1/8th in 14. By that I mean, the horse well in front at the 1/8th pole looks like it just stopped. I saw she drifted late. Probably had no idea what to do when she made the lead. Lol.

What I do know is cheap, cheap fillies can jump up and run great for seemingly no reason every now and then. They can also run terrible for seemingly no reason although, with fillies, their menstrual cycle , with some of them can be a big deal. If they run when in heat, some of them just dont run a lick. If she was indeed in heat last out, she would not have been yesterday. They can also be sewn up, to close the vagina area to help with several issues, which sometimes helps but you would never know that and it is a real longshot that it was that.
It could have been any of these things mentioned or something we are not aware of, like a myectomy, which will allow for air to not be shut off when the horse flips their pallet, or any host of other things, or, it just could have been a perfect storm of the race falling apart and her lucking into a win.
Yes, I am stabbing but I have very little to go on.
And sometimes, they just jump up and run well and nobody can put the pieces together. But to that , it is my opinion that just because you ( a trainer) can't figure it out, doesn't mean there was not something or a set of circumstances that did make the horse run better than typically.

Q. are stewards eyes raised when something like this happens?

A. Yes. But they have to deal with laws, rules, etc. They will usually talk about it, probably today not after the last yesterday as the Stews usually make a jail break after the last race, ( they would get mad at me for saying that but it's the truth). But they don't need to try and figure out why, they just need to make sure that things appear to be on the up and up.

Hope that helps at least a little.

the jockey was a 7lb bug (guy) who'd never ridden the horse before.. he's doing very well at 13% over his last 85 mounts.. the leader at the 1/8th pole did drift in near the end ..prior to this race that horse broke her maiden vs 10k at penn national wiring the field..maybe the different type of trip confused her or maybe was just tired.. she was the deserving favorite based on her figures last race.. but even with all that it was still the improvement of the winner that sticks out.. could be a number of things as you said and probably isn't some form of chicanery.. thanks str

[cutchemist42]

Just posting a heads-up with the Florida Derby draw today with Hidden Scroll getting the 1 post, that Gladiator King who he dueled with won a gr3 at GP last weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IApeKVLH1L8

[Louisvillekid1]

Looking @ AQU r7 as an example for my question

46k Claming 4+ State Bred

Is this is an angle I need I look at more when handicapping claiming racing?

Looking at the money, and trying to figure out a placement such as this?

the #2 Anaylze the odds ,was kept in jail after the claim and is now dropped 15K below the purchase price in today's first start back. Given the 60 day absence at ( about ) a $100 day rate, you can add $6,000 more to the price, along with $500 in other various expenses. That makes this a $45,500 animal who may get claimed for a quarter today, leaving a net loss of $20,000. IF this one wins today ( $25,300 purse, less $5,600 for the jock & trainer ), that's a $19,700 additional return, leaving a break even point for the connections.

Seems to like gotta be going all out today, no?

9/5 ML FAV also

Its Linda Rice for Drawing Away Stable

[str]

Looking @ AQU r7 as an example for my question

46k Claming 4+ State Bred

Is this is an angle I need I look at more when handicapping claiming racing?

Looking at the money, and trying to figure out a placement such as this?

the #2 Anaylze the odds ,was kept in jail after the claim and is now dropped 15K below the purchase price in today's first start back. Given the 60 day absence at ( about ) a $100 day rate, you can add $6,000 more to the price, along with $500 in other various expenses. That makes this a $45,500 animal who may get claimed for a quarter today, leaving a net loss of $20,000. IF this one wins today ( $25,300 purse, less $5,600 for the jock & trainer ), that's a $19,700 additional return, leaving a break even point for the connections.

Seems to like gotta be going all out today, no?

9/5 ML FAV also

Its Linda Rice for Drawing Away Stable

Yes. It will go all out but the worry is how much "all" does the horse have.

If I followed closely I could have told you if she tried to enter while in jail but the race did not go. That info would be huge. If the horse could have run in jail and was sound enough to do so and now drops, simply for a lack of a place to run, the horse is set to run great today in all probability. If it was determined the horse needed the time off while in jail and she is happy to just get her money back, those types as a rule are a poor ROI as some do win, but don't pay much, but others are sore or the problems are flaring and they are not a good bet at all. But without the info as to what the plan actually was, you are guessing. That makes it tough. Watching the horse in the paddock and warming up for kidney sweat and,or first time fronts, ( both negatives) would be the way to go but via simulcast, that is tough as well. Check the workout tab and see if they were every 7 days and more like 4-5 days for the last two prior to today. THAT, would be a positive.
Bottom line though is without that info, you have no edge. No edge and a short price usually leads me off the horse but Linda probably has a very nice % 1st off the claim.
Maybe a small wager like key on top and leave off the bottom of an exacta or something like that or pass. It is against everything I try and do to bet into a horse without knowing what's going on.
Sorry the answer is vague but there are too many unanswered questions for probably 8-5.
Hope that makes sense Kid.
Good luck.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah it makes perfect sense and thank you

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looking @ AQU r7 as an example for my question

46k Claming 4+ State Bred

Is this is an angle I need I look at more when handicapping claiming racing?

Looking at the money, and trying to figure out a placement such as this?

the #2 Anaylze the odds ,was kept in jail after the claim and is now dropped 15K below the purchase price in today's first start back. Given the 60 day absence at ( about ) a $100 day rate, you can add $6,000 more to the price, along with $500 in other various expenses. That makes this a $45,500 animal who may get claimed for a quarter today, leaving a net loss of $20,000. IF this one wins today ( $25,300 purse, less $5,600 for the jock & trainer ), that's a $19,700 additional return, leaving a break even point for the connections.

Seems to like gotta be going all out today, no?

9/5 ML FAV also

Its Linda Rice for Drawing Away Stable

The #2 finished 4th.