[Easy-Rider 66]

the locals get underbet in these situations and there's reasons for that including ny and ky races are much tougher..lots of times they are overmatched but you find one with some positives like a decent pedigree and trained by a top conditioner you will get rewarded nicely when they do win. . didn't have this horse but 20/20 hindsight there were some positives going in imo

Did not play to win but had the #5 boxed with the #8 for $186 ex. The progression on the numbers and pedigree were the keys imo. Also the pace numbers as well.

[JBEX]

Did not play to win but had the #5 boxed with the #8 for $186 ex. The progression on the numbers and pedigree were the keys imo. Also the pace numbers as well.

pace and figure-wise I think he was 4-5 lengths slow but that's what got you a $38 win price..some other things we discussed he had going for him

[Easy-Rider 66]

pace and figure-wise I think he was 4-5 lengths slow but that's what got you a $38 win price..some other things we discussed he had going for him

Yeah but if you bet that he would continue to progress he made sense especially with the pedigree. Thought he may get cooked on front end and that is why maybe he was 18/1.

[JBEX]

Yeah but if you bet that he would continue to progress he made sense especially with the pedigree. Thought he may get cooked on front end and that is why maybe he was 18/1.

but you see the last 2 pace ratings (-10/-12) or 5/6 lengths slow and he was on the front end.. that's 5-6 lengths slower than remington average and remington is probably at least 4 lengths slower than the big leagues.. that was a big improvement needed but hey, he did it

[Easy-Rider 66]

but you see the last 2 pace ratings (-10/-12) or 5/6 lengths slow and he was on the front end.. that's 5-6 lengths slower than remington average and remington is probably at least 4 lengths slower than the big leagues.. that was a big improvement needed but hey, he did it

Yeah good point but I was referring to his individual pace ratings. Which were in line with most of the field last race.

[JBEX]

Yeah good point but I was referring to his individual pace ratings. Which were in line with most of the field last race.

a little slow to me but not ridiculous

[JBEX]

hey str

5yo gelding..solid clm $10k router
coming off a 3 month layoff..trainer runs him one level above @ clm 12.5k at 6.5f ..his line >> 3-4 * 4-6 * 4-7 * 6-9 in an 11 horse field (so finished 6th by 9 lengths) no bias or bad trip and the race was run at par for pace and final time..back in 3 weeks in good shape and now tries 1 1/16 with clm 10k...how do you like his sprint as a primer for the stretchout? hypothetical not from an actual race that'd been run

[JBEX]

hey str

5yo gelding..solid clm $10k router
coming off a 3 month layoff..trainer runs him one level above @ clm 12.5k at 6.5f ..his line >> 3-4 * 4-6 * 4-7 * 6-9 in an 11 horse field (so finished 6th by 9 lengths) no bias or bad trip and the race was run at par for pace and final time..back in 3 weeks in good shape and now tries 1 1/16 with clm 10k...how do you like his sprint as a primer for the stretchout? hypothetical not from an actual race that'd been run

would the 4-6 2nd call be a more realistic 1st call and finishing up 7-11 more likely considering it's 1 level above ?

[JBEX]

noticed that happy alter has a horse a gulfstream.. a name i'm sure you know and one I remember seeing a lot of in years past but not recently...he has a horse at gulfstream today in R10 (#8).. he bred
him and just started to train him after his 6th start (took him away from another trainer).. cheap pedigree broke maiden in 3rd start for mdn $10k (debuted @ mdn12.5k).. next out clm 16kb and last out knocked heads all the way around on the front end lost by a neck clm 6250n2l.. tries that level again today and big jockey upgrade to gaffalione.. he's listed as having 6 starts this year (alter, not this horse)
with 2 wins..interesting how he gets back involved in the training after being away for a while.. looked him up and he's a very successful businessman.. here's an article from a year ago thought you might like.. seems like a real character

https://www.drf.com/news/happy-alter-back-big-race-day

[JBEX]

I hope i'm not being obnoxious here but one other thing crossed my mind relating to the questions 2 and 3 posts back and thought it better to bring it up now vs after you answer.. i'm too mesmerized by this get a route horse ready with a sprint off a layoff thing lol.. this type of horse doesn't need a sprint prep to be ready to roll off a reasonable layoff and it would be an atypical way to go about it... right lol ?

[str]

hey str

5yo gelding..solid clm $10k router
coming off a 3 month layoff..trainer runs him one level above @ clm 12.5k at 6.5f ..his line >> 3-4 * 4-6 * 4-7 * 6-9 in an 11 horse field (so finished 6th by 9 lengths) no bias or bad trip and the race was run at par for pace and final time..back in 3 weeks in good shape and now tries 1 1/16 with clm 10k...how do you like his sprint as a primer for the stretchout? hypothetical not from an actual race that'd been run

Ideally , you would give them 2 sprints and then stretch out. That was always the gold standard for stretch outs.

[str]

would the 4-6 2nd call be a more realistic 1st call and finishing up 7-11 more likely considering it's 1 level above ?

Probably, unless the horse made an easy lead when going 2 turns.

[str]

noticed that happy alter has a horse a gulfstream.. a name i'm sure you know and one I remember seeing a lot of in years past but not recently...he has a horse at gulfstream today in R10 (#8).. he bred
him and just started to train him after his 6th start (took him away from another trainer).. cheap pedigree broke maiden in 3rd start for mdn $10k (debuted @ mdn12.5k).. next out clm 16kb and last out knocked heads all the way around on the front end lost by a neck clm 6250n2l.. tries that level again today and big jockey upgrade to gaffalione.. he's listed as having 6 starts this year (alter, not this horse)
with 2 wins..interesting how he gets back involved in the training after being away for a while.. looked him up and he's a very successful businessman.. here's an article from a year ago thought you might like.. seems like a real character

https://www.drf.com/news/happy-alter-back-big-race-day

Sounds like he will be 4-5 and run like it .

[str]

I hope i'm not being obnoxious here but one other thing crossed my mind relating to the questions 2 and 3 posts back and thought it better to bring it up now vs after you answer.. i'm too mesmerized by this get a route horse ready with a sprint off a layoff thing lol.. this type of horse doesn't need a sprint prep to be ready to roll off a reasonable layoff and it would be an atypical way to go about it... right lol ?

Never obnoxious JBEX. It is always my pleasure.

I would not consider you obsessed with the idea, maybe just trying to refine the validity within it. Stretch outs and turnbacks can produce nice prices as they are not the obvious choice in most cases. Personally, if I had to list a bunch of keys in picking winners that are not favorites, they would be on the list for sure. ( Hey, maybe the people in here should do that. Make a thread about "keys" and let a bunch in here answer and see what matches up. I'm liken it JBEX. What does everybody think? More than three yeses other than mine and I will start that thread. Let me know everyone)

That type could need a race and sprinting to stretch out is a way to assure fitness for a horse that does not get that much out of workouts.
That is not something that handicappers can necessarily see but it exists in about 1 out of 6 or 7? horses.
The trainer pattern usually tells the story on this.
And everytime I type that it reminds me of how unless you monitored that yourself, the vast majority of the public did not know.
There was money to be made if one was patient and ready to pounce back in the day.
Have to admit that when it showed up in Md. and I was aware, it helped pay bills in a big way. And there were plenty of them raising 3 kids and running them all through college. Lol.

[JBEX]

Never obnoxious JBEX. It is always my pleasure.

I would not consider you obsessed with the idea, maybe just trying to refine the validity within it. Stretch outs and turnbacks can produce nice prices as they are not the obvious choice in most cases. Personally, if I had to list a bunch of keys in picking winners that are not favorites, they would be on the list for sure. ( Hey, maybe the people in here should do that. Make a thread about "keys" and let a bunch in here answer and see what matches up. I'm liken it JBEX. What does everybody think? More than three yeses other than mine and I will start that thread. Let me know everyone)

That type could need a race and sprinting to stretch out is a way to assure fitness for a horse that does not get that much out of workouts.
That is not something that handicappers can necessarily see but it exists in about 1 out of 6 or 7? horses.
The trainer pattern usually tells the story on this.
And everytime I type that it reminds me of how unless you monitored that yourself, the vast majority of the public did not know.
There was money to be made if one was patient and ready to pounce back in the day.
Have to admit that when it showed up in Md. and I was aware, it helped pay bills in a big way. And there were plenty of them raising 3 kids and running them all through college. Lol.

I think I've asked you this once before but the thing i'm interested in is the type of running line.. I remember reading a long time ago and it made sense to me that a closing sprinter is not necessarily a good stretchout candidate.. also that would be what the public thinks so no value there.. take the line I mentioned above and add some beyer figures to it .. let's say my horse ran a 70 coming out of that 6.5f race.. 9 lengths off would mean about an 89 beyer run by the winner.. I always felt that if my horse needed to run a low to mid 80's beyer to win the route I was set up nicely.. like the fact that he exited a sprint that was faster than then the route beyer he would need..kind of felt a race like that in the sprint would have him "hardened" for lack of better term to get it done going long.. some long gallops before and after ( your territory) and you have a horse nicely prepared.. think I'm in the ballpark with this scenario?

[Easy-Rider 66]

A keys thread started by you would be interesting STR. You have this one great thread going maybe you can get another going.

[JBEX]

hey str

thought you would find this interesting..looked at my equibase app to see if any tracks were running on christmas..I know of course it's a no races day on the mainland usa but they do run in puerto rico at camarero
racetrack..I looked up camarero and he was a horse that raced from 1953-1956 only in puerto rico..he won the first edition of the triple crown over their in 1954..his career record 76 starts-73 wins-2 seconds -0 thirds including 56
consecutive wins !! the other famous 56 streak lol..it said they didn't allow betting when he ran which is understandable..for all those wins he accumulated $43,353 in earnings..hard to believe even for the time but that's what it says..other thing that's interesting was his size..14 hands and 750 lbs..that's a really small horse from what i've read..were horses going back 50-60 years ago smaller than today's? I figured because the older ones were more durable that they were also similar in size but this article makes me wonder

merry christmas and happy holidays to you and your family and thanks for all the great contributions you make to this forum

[JBEX]

hey str

thought you would find this interesting..looked at my equibase app to see if any tracks were running on christmas..I know of course it's a no races day on the mainland usa but they do run in puerto rico at camarero
racetrack..I looked up camarero and he was a horse that raced from 1953-1956 only in puerto rico..he won the first edition of the triple crown over their in 1954..his career record 76 starts-73 wins-2 seconds -0 thirds including 56
consecutive wins !! the other famous 56 streak lol..it said they didn't allow betting when he ran which is understandable..for all those wins he accumulated $43,353 in earnings..hard to believe even for the time but that's what it says..other thing that's interesting was his size..14 hands and 750 lbs..that's a really small horse from what i've read..were horses going back 50-60 years ago smaller than today's? I figured because the older ones were more durable that they were also similar in size but this article makes me wonder

merry christmas and happy holidays to you and your family and thanks for all the great contributions you make to this forum

then again he probably faced an average of 3 other horses and a solid $3k claimer of that day from the mainland might have given him all he can handle..guessing in those days there were $3k claimers at major venues ?

[str]

hey str

thought you would find this interesting..looked at my equibase app to see if any tracks were running on christmas..I know of course it's a no races day on the mainland usa but they do run in puerto rico at camarero
racetrack..I looked up camarero and he was a horse that raced from 1953-1956 only in puerto rico..he won the first edition of the triple crown over their in 1954..his career record 76 starts-73 wins-2 seconds -0 thirds including 56
consecutive wins !! the other famous 56 streak lol..it said they didn't allow betting when he ran which is understandable..for all those wins he accumulated $43,353 in earnings..hard to believe even for the time but that's what it says..other thing that's interesting was his size..14 hands and 750 lbs..that's a really small horse from what i've read..were horses going back 50-60 years ago smaller than today's? I figured because the older ones were more durable that they were also similar in size but this article makes me wonder

merry christmas and happy holidays to you and your family and thanks for all the great contributions you make to this forum

Thanks JBEX. I appreciate that a lot.
Q. that's a really small horse from what i've read..were horses going back 50-60 years ago smaller than today's?

A. I would assume they are slightly bigger height wise. 14 hands is small but I never saw a small horse that didn't try it's butt off. Certainly they are bigger muscle wise. With all the growth hormones and muscle builders floating around (steroids), they have to be.

[str]

then again he probably faced an average of 3 other horses and a solid $3k claimer of that day from the mainland might have given him all he can handle..guessing in those days there were $3k claimers at major venues ?

Yep. I claimed some horses in Md. for 3k back in the late 70's I'm pretty sure. I think the bottom in NY was 7500. Not positive though. Wasn't long after I started that they raised the bottom to 4k and then to 5k in Md. Used to be 1500 at CT/Shenandoah Downs and was 1200 at Waterford Park. Yikes!

[JBEX]

Yep. I claimed some horses in Md. for 3k back in the late 70's I'm pretty sure. I think the bottom in NY was 7500. Not positive though. Wasn't long after I started that they raised the bottom to 4k and then to 5k in Md. Used to be 1500 at CT/Shenandoah Downs and was 1200 at Waterford Park. Yikes!

wow that low.!! just peeked at an archived drf from aqueduct on 6/29/55..they had $3500 claiming races, horses who ran 4x in a month and a few jockeys names that I heard of.. arcaro(of course) , ted atkinson willie boland.. neat having a look at that

[JBEX]

wow that low.!! just peeked at an archived drf from aqueduct on 6/29/55..they had $3500 claiming races, horses who ran 4x in a month and a few jockeys names that I heard of.. arcaro(of course) , ted atkinson willie boland.. neat having a look at that

stevies pal.. 6yo gelding (ran that day)

bred and trained by ethel jacobs.. who was married to hall of fame trainer hirsch jacobs.. she was a very prominent breeder of horses overall

this horse's last 10 races (all 3500 claimers)

4/29 bel ...1 1/16 mile < 5th by 7
5/2 bel... 1 1/8 mile <3rd
5/11 bel ... 1 3/8 mile turf <3rd
5/16 bel ... 1 1/16 mile < won

5/20 pim ... 1 3/16 mile < 5th by 1½
5/27 pim ...1 1/2 mile <8th

6/4 bel... 1 1/16 mile < 2nd by ½
6/8 bel ...1 1/2 mile < 2nd by 1½

6/18 aqu ... 1 1/4 mile < 4th by 9
6/24 aqu ... 1 1/8 mile < 3rd by 7

6/29 aqu...1 5/8 today


11 races in exactly 2 months and they weren't exactly sprints lol... unreal !!

[str]

stevies pal.. 6yo gelding (ran that day)

bred and trained by ethel jacobs.. who was married to hall of fame trainer hirsch jacobs.. she was a very prominent breeder of horses overall

this horse's last 10 races (all 3500 claimers)

4/29 bel ...1 1/16 mile < 5th by 7
5/2 bel... 1 1/8 mile <3rd
5/11 bel ... 1 3/8 mile turf <3rd
5/16 bel ... 1 1/16 mile < won

5/20 pim ... 1 3/16 mile < 5th by 1½
5/27 pim ...1 1/2 mile <8th

6/4 bel... 1 1/16 mile < 2nd by ½
6/8 bel ...1 1/2 mile < 2nd by 1½

6/18 aqu ... 1 1/4 mile < 4th by 9
6/24 aqu ... 1 1/8 mile < 3rd by 7

6/29 aqu...1 5/8 today


11 races in exactly 2 months and they weren't exactly sprints lol... unreal !!

It was a different game wasn't it?

[str]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Same to you STR. Have a good day.

[JBEX]

It was a different game wasn't it?

i'll say ..always heard this is how it was and cool to actually see it in an old racing form..

I even see a bit of a pattern but of course just speculation

4/29 and 5/2 races then back in 9 days
after that healthy rest 3 more races in 9 days

6/4 and 6/8 races then back in 10 days
after that long layoff 3 races in 11 days

boy I hope they gave this guy at least a week off after this race.. probably not but we'll never know.. heck he might have run on 4/25 for all we know lol

[JBEX]

i'll say ..always heard this is how it was and cool to actually see it in an old racing form..

I even see a bit of a pattern but of course just speculation

4/29 and 5/2 races then back in 9 days
after that healthy rest 3 more races in 9 days

6/4 and 6/8 races then back in 10 days
after that long layoff 3 races in 11 days

boy I hope they gave this guy at least a week off after this race.. probably not but we'll never know.. heck he might have run on 4/25 for all we know lol

inappropriate remark.. this is how things were often done in those times and this implies the horse was possibly mistreated.. unfair dig

[JBEX]

hey str

about a week ago harthebar had a winner at laurel that paid 19.60 win.. for reasons I can't explain I went to check the chart of the race and noticed the horse had run 3 days prior at aqueduct and finished 3rd.. kind of interesting circumstances don't you think? the aqueduct race was a "clm16k for 3yo only".. the laurel race was a starter optional claiming for 3yo's and up.. conditions started for clm $25k or lower AND n2L or up for a tag $25k AND the same n2L.. he qualified without having to be up for sale.. could he have been entered for both with the initial idea of running in one of them but decided to try both after a good effort in the aqueduct race.. or they just decided to ship to laurel without any thought of it prior to the aqueduct race??

hey str

man if you charged by the hour i'd owe you a bunch lol..
this horse that we discussed above (vicar's legend) is running again at laurel today in R3 as part of an entry..
only reason in know this is because harthebar put it up in his thread (happy holidays hart)..he's returning in 4 days this time (3 the other time) and running at the same level he did last time..interesting that his entry mate also exits the same race as him at aqueduct and it's imo a bigger drop this time then last (clm16k 3yo vs sb n1x alw today)
..vicar qualifies as he's a 3yo while the other is 8yo who still eligible for n3l and also had raced for a tag of 25k or lower (need both to be eligible) ..top ny apprentice reylu guittierrez listed as the rider on both and guessing only one will be making the trip..i'll let you know when I get the scratches

[str]

hey str

man if you charged by the hour i'd owe you a bunch lol..
this horse that we discussed above (vicar's legend) is running again at laurel today in R3 as part of an entry..
only reason in know this is because harthebar put it up in his thread (happy holidays hart)..he's returning in 4 days this time (3 the other time) and running at the same level he did last time..interesting that his entry mate also exits the same race as him at aqueduct and it's imo a bigger drop this time then last (clm16k 3yo vs sb n1x alw today)
..vicar qualifies as he's a 3yo while the other is 8yo who still eligible for n3l and also had raced for a tag of 25k or lower (need both to be eligible) ..top ny apprentice reylu guittierrez listed as the rider on both and guessing only one will be making the trip..i'll let you know when I get the scratches

If they are both on lasix, he would have had to treat them by 10:30 so if someone is scratched, it's already happened.

[str]

If they are both on lasix, he would have had to treat them by 10:30 so if someone is scratched, it's already happened.

Just looked.

They are both scratched. Probably the older horse will get days for scratching but the the 3 year old is re entered between now and the 31st. That's what I would have done if what we are seeing is what I used to do sometimes with a 3 year old.
Saw he was 10-1 morning line.
I would be looking to make him 8-5 before Jan. 1st

[JBEX]

hey str

man if you charged by the hour i'd owe you a bunch lol..
this horse that we discussed above (vicar's legend) is running again at laurel today in R3 as part of an entry..
only reason in know this is because harthebar put it up in his thread (happy holidays hart)..he's returning in 4 days this time (3 the other time) and running at the same level he did last time..interesting that his entry mate also exits the same race as him at aqueduct and it's imo a bigger drop this time then last (clm16k 3yo vs sb n1x alw today)
..vicar qualifies as he's a 3yo while the other is 8yo who still eligible for n3l and also had raced for a tag of 25k or lower (need both to be eligible) ..top ny apprentice reylu guittierrez listed as the rider on both and guessing only one will be making the trip..i'll let you know when I get the scratches

rats both are vet scratches..oh well I tried

[str]

JBEX:

hey str

"man if you charged by the hour i'd owe you a bunch lol.."




No worries JBEX. I just put it on your tab. LOl.

[JBEX]

[JBEX]

hey str

GP R1 soon to be (2019) 8yo mare who just ran the best number she's ever run going back to the beginning of her 4yo year (can't see 2 +3yo years).. have to think a bounce candidate ..#5 amaluna (4-1).. haven't decided who yet just thought that was interesting..using the thoro-graphs why I can look back that far

[JBEX]

hey str

GP R1 soon to be (2019) 8yo mare who just ran the best number she's ever run going back to the beginning of her 4yo year (can't see 2 +3yo years).. have to think a bounce candidate ..#5 amaluna (4-1).. haven't decided who yet just thought that was interesting..using the thoro-graphs why I can look back that far

winner 9.80

think the drop and even her secondary numbers were pretty good in here