[Bet Shooter]

I understand that the closing lines are the culmination of movement of the total dollars wagered on an individual event, that forces the books to change the line to try and acheive balanced action on that wager. I also know that books never see a true balanced action, and they might even shade the numbers to max out their gains. So here is my question:

Do the educated posters at SBR have any idea if the closing lines are weighted heavier with sharp money or would there be more public money (square) reflected in those closing numbers. Does the true dollar amount of public money excede the sharp money? Or is it the other way around?

So if a wager sees a sharp change in the line between open and close, do you think it's the sharp money or the combined square money that caused that change?

Thank You in advance

[AgainstAllOdds]

I think its very hard to give you an answer to your question. However I believe books are more apt to make changes to a line from a a single sharp bet, than many square bets.

[Bet Shooter]

I think its very hard to give you an answer to your question. However I believe books are more apt to make changes to a line from a a single sharp bet, than many square bets.

I agree, but the total dollars have to move the line accordingly no matter where they come from at the close....no?

[AgainstAllOdds]

Check out the last paragraph in this article...that might help you


http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...tsbettors.html

[Data]

I understand that the closing lines are the culmination of movement of the total dollars wagered on an individual event, that forces the books to change the line to try and acheive balanced action on that wager.

I do not think this is true.

I also know that books never see a true balanced action, and they might even shade the numbers to max out their gains. So here is my question:

Do the educated posters at SBR have any idea if the closing lines are weighted heavier with sharp money or would there be more public money (square) reflected in those closing numbers. Does the true dollar amount of public money excede the sharp money? Or is it the other way around?

So if a wager sees a sharp change in the line between open and close, do you think it's the sharp money or the combined square money that caused that change?

Thank You in advance

The book with a closing line that is worth monitoring never moves the line on square action and has no reason to balance their action. They move the line on sharp action only.

[Bet Shooter]

I do not think this is true.



The book with a closing line that is worth monitoring never moves the line on square action and has no reason to balance their action. They move the line on sharp action only.

So in your opinion Data, the total moves between openers and closers are strictly the result of sharp money moving the line at the top rated books? (barring any change in personel due to late injuries.)

Would this be the consensus here, or does someone have a different take on this? Don Juan? Durito? Gaunch? Justin?

[Justin7]

I do not think this is true.



The book with a closing line that is worth monitoring never moves the line on square action and has no reason to balance their action. They move the line on sharp action only.

I'll have to disagree. When enough volume comes in, you move the line no matter who bet it. If money keeps coming in from "square" players, it's not square.

[LT Profits]

Let's just say books have a higher tolerance level if the money is coming from squares. They may move the line immediaely if a sharp bets 10K, but they may wait until squares bet a cumulative 20K before moving the line.

[Dark Horse]

So if a wager sees a sharp change in the line between open and close, do you think it's the sharp money or the combined square money that caused that change?

Early money and line change is sharp players. Late money and line change is public. Generally. Early movement can be very early, and very brief. In my experience books with useful information on early line movements are Pinnacle and Olympic.

And there's a difference between a line that's up for a week, as in the NFL, and a line that's up for a day.

Sportsinsights.com will give you an idea of the percentages on each side.

[Data]

I'll have to disagree. When enough volume comes in, you move the line no matter who bet it.

OK, right, you move the line a little, you check around, you see that there is nothing really going on, you realize that is a square play. Do you move the line back where it was? If you do not then I would say that you are not the book whose lines are worth monitoring. So, the line will move on the square action but it will come back, in effect staying the same.

If money keeps coming in from "square" players, it's not square.

I do not understand what does "square is not square" mean here. When I said "square" I meant "square".

[Data]

So in your opinion Data, the total moves between openers and closers are strictly the result of sharp money moving the line at the top rated books? (barring any change in personel due to late injuries.)

Yes, that is my opinion.

Top rated books do not need to balance their action on square plays, in contrary they want as much square action as they can write. Offloading is for smaller books who bit more than they can chew (they underfunded and concerned about risk management), so they offload to minimize their exposure but they pay for that, either sharp players and/or the bigger books with the money they earned from the squares.

[Bet Shooter]

Thank You everyone.

As simple as this sounds, the next logical step would be to just follow these moves from the opener and you should realize the same returns as the sharp players (minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager). If there are really sharp people doing this day in and day out and they are profitable, then this has to hold true. BUT, I have been looking at these types of wagers for some time now and the true returns don't show a profit. This is why my original question came to be. Has the public money possibly being greater than the early sharp money, moved the line enough to corrupt my data? If the early sharp money is the ONLY thing making the line move, then it should show a direct correlation between open and close and a positive profit.

Any solutions?

[Dark Horse]

This type of stuff falls under secondary angles. I have yet to meet the first person who struck it rich from studying line movements.

May have been different in the eighties, with softer lines.

[marcoforte]

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...arkets2004.pdf


For an academic's response, read the above published article. The author is an economist from the U of Chic business school. Using data from wagerline, he shows the books carry unbalanced ledgers particularly if it is the public team. They are more knowledgeable. Their knowledge increases their payday. One would theorize that late money is public/dumb money. One would assume that the sharps go against it.

[reno cool]

Thank You everyone.

As simple as this sounds, the next logical step would be to just follow these moves from the opener and you should realize the same returns as the sharp players (minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager). If there are really sharp people doing this day in and day out and they are profitable, then this has to hold true. BUT, I have been looking at these types of wagers for some time now and the true returns don't show a profit. This is why my original question came to be. Has the public money possibly being greater than the early sharp money, moved the line enough to corrupt my data? If the early sharp money is the ONLY thing making the line move, then it should show a direct correlation between open and close and a positive profit.Any solutions?

Something has to be true. The games that fell between the lines must make a difference. If it doesn't show a profit would mean that the opening lines performed better in your sample.

I do believe books don't mind picking a side or even enticing action on a particular side. This is how they got killed on the last Super Bowl.

[Data]

As simple as this sounds, the next logical step would be to just follow these moves from the opener and you should realize the same returns as the sharp players (minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager).

No, it is not the next logical step.

The next logical step is to realize that the big proven winners whom you want to follow bet big money. The next logical step is to realize that they do not bet the openers due to the small limits. And the next logical step is to realize that you need to look out for the moves once the normal limits are set.

If there are really sharp people doing this day in and day out and they are profitable, then this has to hold true.

The approach itself is certainly valid and is the source of (additional) income for many smaller players. It is proven to work not only in sports betting but in many areas with the fish following the sharks being a widely known example.

[donjuan]

As simple as this sounds, the next logical step would be to just follow these moves from the opener and you should realize the same returns as the sharp players (minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager).

If you aren't getting the same number that was there pre-move, then you won't show a profit and should show a loss (the vig).

[dwaechte]

(minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager).

As donjuan suggests, this is going to be a very large number in the big picture, essentially eliminating any of the "edge" from the initial play made by the "sharps".

[donjuan]

As donjuan suggests, this is going to be a very large number in the big picture, essentially eliminating any of the "edge" from the initial play made by the "sharps".

Exactly. Advantage gamblers bet numbers, not teams.

[reno cool]

he did say:
(minus the number of games where the line move caused a different outcome for the wager).

so I assume he's accounting for this

[reno cool]

No, it is not the next logical step.

The next logical step is to realize that the big proven winners whom you want to follow bet big money. The next logical step is to realize that they do not bet the openers due to the small limits. And the next logical step is to realize that you need to look out for the moves once the normal limits are set.



The approach itself is certainly valid and is the source of (additional) income for many smaller players. It is proven to work not only in sports betting but in many areas with the fish following the sharks being a widely known example.

Seems like you're saying the only line moves are caused by sharps. But also that they don't bet openers --- so the line never moves.

Do you mean that they dont bet overnights (as in baseball)?

[Data]

Seems like you're saying the only line moves are caused by sharps. But also that they don't bet openers --- so the line never moves.

It is not a line if you cannot bet it, don't you think? A nickel bet is nothing for a big book as well as for a big bettor.

I would say that whatever happens before the limits are lifted is a part of line setting process. The books need to weed out the errors, see where the action is going and where the other books are at to avoid arbs with the other big books.

[Bet Shooter]

No, it is not the next logical step.

The next logical step is to realize that the big proven winners whom you want to follow bet big money. The next logical step is to realize that they do not bet the openers due to the small limits. And the next logical step is to realize that you need to look out for the moves once the normal limits are set.



The approach itself is certainly valid and is the source of (additional) income for many smaller players. It is proven to work not only in sports betting but in many areas with the fish following the sharks being a widely known example.

Thanks for all the imput everyone.
Data, is there a specific time of day when the limits are lifted? This could be an indicator of those plays and not the previous line adjustments at the lower limits.

[Data]

Data, is there a specific time of day when the limits are lifted?

I doubt there is a specific time but I really do not know.