Originally Posted by
Justin7
I am not an NHL handicapper, so be careful with any ideas I offer.
How much do NHL stats tend to revert to the mean? If these NJ players are playing terribly, are they likely to continue playing this bady? What measuring stick are you using for the players?
Are NHL player performances somewhat constant, or do they predictably fluctuate? Is a season average a bettor predictor than the last 10 games?
How is the market moving regarding your NJ plays? If NJ opened at +130 and closed at +150, your model gave you the right side of the opener at least when it projected +200.