[bookie]

I'm sure people here know there's a fairly new stat in basketball called "true shooting percentage" which weighs a players success drawing free throws and making three point shots.

I keep separate workbooks for my moneyline and pointspread bets because I like to know how I'm doing in each, and especially what my strike rate is in a set of categories that I have filters for (dogs, favs, overs, unders, and a few reason types).

I've been thinking about redoing my spreadsheet, though, because it's kind of a hassle to go to a separate workbook to enter the moneyline bets. So I was wondering if there was a way to combine moneyline and pointspread plays into a "true handicapping percentage." A number that would be your winning percentage adjusted by your odds.

I'm sure there is, but these things don't come easily to me. Would it be as simple as adding together all the odds and multiplying by the strike rate? For example, let's say I average the columns and find I hit 50% at +102, would multiplying them together give me what I'm looking for? I think not, but I'm just trying to show the limits of my thinking.

Would be grateful for any straight-forward non-condescending help.

[uva3021]

Your post inspired me to think of an equation, so this is how I might go about it.

If you want to express winning percentage exclusively as a function of units won and loss (instead of 55% and +- so many units, just one rated number), you could try raising your ML percentage to the ratio of winning percentage and 1- wagered probability

for example, say you hit 50 of 100 wagers on MLs of -300 (75% wprob)

50/100 ^ (.5/(1-.75)) = 25%

or where ML = +300

50/100 ^ (.25/.50) = 70.71%

Your win and loss record is implicit in your adjusted winning percentage, and will be somewhat proportional for a flat bettor up and down the probability scale. Its completely arbitrary and not perfect in any sense, obviously the scaling becomes askew with lower probabilities, but its a reasonably sliding scale none the less (to check myself, I made sure win percentage equates to adjusted percentage when line is even). THen perhaps you can integrate that percentage into something else for record keeping.

[TomG]

ROI

[Data]

ROI

ROI, as in the last post in this thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...r-success.html
Not.

[byronbb]

the sbr forums spreadsheet is pretty good and will let you break things down as you require provided you input things correctly.