[statnerds]

So here is my question, which led me to get philosophical, or maybe it was the Black Russians.

So I check the Live Betting during the last commercial break. 7-0 NC State over FSU with about 11:30 minutes to play in the 2nd Quarter.

the Total was 46, FSU to score next was -205 and next score a TD was -250. now those last two lines are juiced as hell, but it seems to me that those 3 events are directly correlated. Or that is if the 2 events that are most likely to happen, a TD and one scored by FSU, you have your answer for the likelihood of the other?

One, or more of those lines, is seriously flawed. so if the prob of a TD being scored is 69%, and the prob that it will be a FSU TD is 65%, why would the Total be lowered?

Damn-it my 4 yr old just came in the room acted like a moron and I completely lost the philosophical angle I had. maybe it will come back later.

Can anyone help on this?

And now my buzz is clouding is my thought process.

How would I calculate the probability of that score being an FSU TD and then translate that into which side of a 110/100 Total is +EV? Obviously to me if the likely outcome of that possession is an FSU TD, the Over has better value than the Under.

[sharpcat]

FSU to score next -205 is likely due to the fact that they would have possession of the ball after the break.

TD's occur more frequently than FG's which is likely why the next score being a TD was -250. This is an average price for this prop pre game.

[statnerds]

I keep being too scared of the Next Score a TD in college cause it is usually over -200. But last night had 1 FG and there was a prime time game last week that had TDs only I think. Can't really remember.

I was lucky on the FSU score next cause I grabbed it at +250 when NC State was driving up 7-0 and there was a commercial break.

I am still having trouble wrapping my head around how a Total can be constantly lowered if the most likely outcome of the next possession is a TD. Well maybe just cause FSU was over -200, which I rarely see when a team gets the ball on their own side of the field.

Also, those next score props only cover the next few minutes of the game, but the Total covers the entire game. So there still has to be some sort of correlation going on there, but I have no evidence to reveal how strong or weak it is.

Thanks Sharpcat.

[wrongturn]

The total is calculated based on the existing score and the amount of time left in the game, plus whether the ball is in/near red-zone.

[That Foreign Guy]

Most likely next score being a TD does not mean most likely result of the next possession.

FSU most likely to score next does not mean they will score next possession, they can fail, get the ball back and then score (could even repeat fail and get ball back a couple times too). In fact I'd say the odds of FSU scoring on the upcoming drive reflect little more than their field position, FSU offensive efficiency, and NC defensive efficiency.

If these are props that end before the end of the game (ie next score or the end of quarter with no score are bet ending events) then you have more implied info to go on because now you know their estimate of probability of a TD before the end of the quarters which has a lot more effect on the correct total.

I don't know enough about Football to say if one of those lines is flawed but if it is I don't think it's because of correlation between them.
I'm also not convinced the two props are more than minimally correlated with each other at this early a stage in the game. Yes, if it was 7-0 with 5 minutes left then any FSU score is highly likely to be a TD because they still require a TD after a FG but this early in the game surely the coach would kick if the drive stalled within range?

[CHUBNUT]

In game betting is viewed in the trade as the latest way to skin inexperienced bettors, the vig is mind boggling. The only way to make it possibily pay without access to exchanges is taking a price on the team behind against what you may consider a vunerable team.

[durito]

In game betting is viewed in the trade as the latest way to skin inexperienced bettors, the vig is mind boggling. The only way to make it possibily pay without access to exchanges is taking a price on the team behind against what you may consider a vunerable team.

stop posting here

[statnerds]

stop posting here

you bastard. I was excited to see your name in the replies.

Then I scroll down and see that.

Thought you were going to share some insight with this. There are about 10 people on this site that would be able to help me make sense of it, and whose opinion I would accept with little hesitation, and you are one of them.

Tease.