Hey guys, just wondering if anyone here conducts video replay analysis as part of their capping. I have a bit of an idea in regards to horseracing, but do not know where to start in sport handicapping.
How does video analysis affect capping your chosen sport? Is there any literature on this available?
Seeing video can help "put a face to the numbers."
Well, an example would be better.
In the NFL, some team had 150 yards rushing in the first half. If we look at the video, we see it happened mostly on 3 40-yd runs where there were some uncharacteristic missed tackles on defense. The stats, box scores, etc. don't provide commentary like that (usually!), and without seeing it for yourself, or being informed by someone who saw it, you won't have the true picture. You may, at best, know that the bulk of the yards were on three huge runs. But you won't know that the runner was held up at the line of scrimmage, and broke three tackles, etc.
Filtering out garbage yards would be an example...in basketball checking for team's that have garbage time monsters who make trailing teams good 2H bets would be another.
In general, though, sports doesn't lend itself to trip handicapping like racing does.
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Video analysis and sport handicapping
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