For major sport markets, the markets will adjust. 3-18 ATS could be short term aberration. You would not expect an event that has 50% probability to continue at the 3-18 pace in the long run.
They did alright from November to December though ATS (am I seeing 8-1?). If you assumed that they would revert to about 50/50 against the spread, then perhaps that's a decent play. Timing that perfectly though would be tough and you'd be smart to probably pull out of the "auto-fade" once they hit 50/50 or close to it.
Or perhaps Texas fans provide a bias to the market - it is a big state with a lot of oil money.
How did you determine OK ST was a +EV play - did you model that game?
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