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Why do some people not get limited?
Guy A wins $500 on legit bets and gets limited to peanuts within a week.
Guy B loses $500 on legit bets and gets limited to peanuts within a week.
Guy C withdraws $20k on average each month for years, doesn't raise any red flags, still has the "cash out" feature enabled.
I would ask the stupid idiots at 365 but I know I wouldn't get an answer there. But if they believe a guy who took half a million from them is a long term loser just about to give it all back then they really are stupid idiots.
sites are getting outta control with the limiting and closing acts.. they'r all scared to lose now..
Yeah and all it would take to fix is make the stupid thieving books accept bets with at least $250-500 liability to keep their thieving licence. They'd still make hundreds of millions a year. $2 stakes are a complete joke.
Guy A bet lines where bet365 was best price in market.Originally Posted by Gaze73
Guy B bet lines where bet365 was a long way from best price in the market.
Guy C is a liar imo unless you have proof?
Edit: I don't think you mean the guy bet at bet365 , do you? Same answer applies tho just ignore the word bet365
Edit 2: Guy C could potentially exisy as a Pinny customer or someone who is betting at least high 6 figures per month in a non-systematic way and getting lucky for 12 staright months winning exactly 20k.
Last edited by ichiro4thehall; 11-13-19 at 09:07 AM.
If ur account pings the high risk beacon in the algorithm at b365, you will be watched by risk managers for bit. They may or may not contact you. Most likely you will attempt to login and not be able to one day and be forced to start a chat or call in. Call in usually means ur going to have ur account access reinstated, chat only means ur done. They did send me my account balance the next day though.
What if a guy wins long term even though 365 doesn't have the best odds in the market? Why wouldn't they boot him?
Guy C is definitely not a liar, he has a very high long term reputation both as a person and a high stakes pro. He makes loads of cash at 365 live betting. He explained his "tricks" against getting limited but they are far too weak, e.g. depositing $1k every now and then, not withdrawing more than 50% of the balance, etc. Yet he somehow stays under the radar with regular $20k withdrawals. And he himself wonders why they still send him $100 bonuses after that. I just can't imagine 365 traders looking at this guy who might have taken up to $1 million from them over the years and not doing a single thing about it. Meanwhile they strip small time bettors of all promos, bonuses, cash out feature, and limit stakes to $1.65.
I’m not saying guy c is a liar but 365 don’t put up with 20k withdrawals you might get 2 if lucky before getting the boot
From my experience with bet365 this scenario seems highly unlikely. The check their members for two things on regular basis, first: what kind of bets do they bet and second: what is the net saldo.
It can happen that they consider a player with positive balance as "recreational" but not for such amounts and such a long time frame (at least i never heard of something like this before). If you have, i would really be interested in more information about Mr. C.
They wouldn't boot the guy for a few reasons. First, sportsbook lines are incredibly accurate, it is extremely hard to beat bookies betting the best lines. I'd say it is impossible beating them betting poor lines - unlesss you are cheating i.e a horse trainer laying his horses he knows are injured, overfed etc. Second, if an employee looking at this guys record notices he is constantly beating the book betting poor lines then he just found a money tree.
Respectfully, i'd be willing to bet a lot the guy is a liar - even just from a numbers point of view. The average gambler's monthly incomne will vary wildly, the fact someone claims to be a professional gambler and earn the same each month is in itself a huge red flag for authenticity. Most people who are in some way semi-famous as gambling pros make all their money through affiliate deals etc. This guy have a blog I bet? Why don't you name him if he is well-known and has a good reputation?
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Fake mug bets and bet the opposite on Betfair Exchange
Everybody gets limited sooner or later. However, there are ways to avoid quick limitation and extend your account's life.
There was an article I had wrote about it I remember.
Some quick tips that comes to my mind are,
1- Make parlay bets.
2- Don't make withdrawals often. Rest the account little bit after hot periods.
3- Don't start hammering the lines right after you opened the account. First, place mug bets like Poisec said. Place square bets. The first 10 bets are examined closely by the bookmaker usually. You will get out of radar slowly after 2-3 weeks.
Good luck!
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Do it the way gaming cartel's do it. Deposit or withdraw ONCE a year. Take care of the ticket writers and sports book managers. This is almost impossible to do if you use an off shore book, but big gamblers do not use those as a rule. It is a lot easier getting your funds out of a Vegas Sportsbook than an offshore book.
No, the lines are not accurate. The guy makes most of his profits on live betting and I have to agree there is huge value there. Trust me the guy is not a liar. He's also been posting very good pre game picks on a private forum for years, very sharp and helpful guy. I said he withdraws 20k on average, not exactly 20k. Why would someone who makes tens of thousands a month need affiliate deals?
Yes I figured this should work but he doesn't do that. Still, it would be very cumbersome to lose so much money on mug bets and get it back on exchanges.
Anyway I asked 365 and called their traders idiots, no reply yet
Agree, your first week or two and 20 or 30 bets will set the tone for how you will be treated long term at many books.
If all the market is on 1.8, but in 365(or same style) it is at 2.1, and you only bet does kind of lines, you will get limited, even if you're bet loses, this also goes for arbitrage.
If you bet regular on premier League with regular lines and have a normal profit they don't care about , they know that you aren't sharp enough and will lose eventually
Accounts are analysed by people. Decisions concerning accounts are made by people. People are fallible and they can be manipulated.
People who analised accounts are sharp, and their not stupid, if you are betting their best lines you are getting kick out.
You get tax when u win more than 5k in vegas so offshore is still the place if u place thousands of wagers.
What is there to analyze? It's all numbers, either someone wins consistently or they don't, whatever the method. Let's say someone bets nothing but live soccer overs, after 1000 bets over 3 months he shows a profit of 300 units at 8% roi. Would you keep him around? Whoever is in profit after 1000 singles is sharp, period.
Last edited by Gaze73; 11-15-19 at 04:42 AM.
You could easily be in profit after 1000 hands of blackjack or slots... doesnt mean shit.
I'd believe their algo, if it says the guy's been taking non-value odds, he's been getting lucky. Simple fact. They know very well why they keep someone around, if they know he's taking -EV bets it's matter of time before it all comes back to them. Limiting has nothing at all to do with winning or losing but everything with the odds you take.
They don't get enough data to properly analyze players in their first week of betting, but they need to make a decision fast.
So winning has low relevance to the decision really.
They have to rely on data points that indicate if you MIGHT be sharp ongoing.
Most books will know where they sit in comparison to the market on every bet, just being sharp enough to identify and bet a high % of the ones around best market odds is enough.
Picking off big value bets on low liquidity markets, whether they win or lose, is another.
But it isn't that simple. Someone like Bet365 very likely uses thousands of weird parameters to rate you apart form just bets. Time of day you bet, payment method, length of sessions, how often you check a market before betting, what you load up in your bet slip but do not bet. etc etc
Now you're comparing a skill game to goddamn slots. If I was a book I'd limit anyone who showed a profit after 1000 singles. Maybe they're not long term winners but breakeven players, no reason to keep them around anyway.
How does an algo know what's non-value odds? Let's say Bet365 has closing odds 1.95 on a fav and WH has 2.0. Do you think that means the fav is bad value by default? I picked a fav like that today and they won 4:1, was that a bad value play?
And what about live betting? According to you anyone who makes money on bet 365 live bets must just be getting lucky because bookie margin makes all bets -ev. When I took Barcelona to draw @6.5 and Napoli draw @3.5 which both won I just got lucky right? Without margin the odds would be around 8.0 and 4.0 so I made bad value bets and yet they don't want me around for some reason.
Im saying 1000 bets you could show profit, and it not mean anything. Just like if you played a 1000 hands of blackjack.
Yes it could also mean you are sharp, but not always - so do you know how much money the book could risk by closing accs of people they dont suspect of anything, other than breaking even over 1000 bets lol.
Yep that favourite bet was a bad play because you cannot do that long term and be up after 10k plays. 100 plays, maybe. 250, unlikely. 1000, extremely unlikely. 10k bets, next to impossible unless you were beating the market closing price + juice on average. You CANNOT "pick winners" long term. This has been discussed thousands of times and I will not go over it again.
Yep you got lucky with the live bets too. If however you compared those odds to the rest of the market and the average was 5.2 for Barca and 2.8 for Napoli at the time you placed the bet, you had skill by picking those numbers and would win long term.
Ah, you're one of those "the market is efficient" guys. What if I told you I make most of my profit on closing lines at Pinny? Today I took 2 draws again out of hundreds of matches and both won @4.54 and @4.75 with big dogs scoring first. According to your theory those were -ev bets. But why do you think I chose those exact two games and not other games at those exact odds? Why did I ignore all the other games? I also had exactly one pick on Over 2.5 and it ended with 5 goals. Why did I pick this specific game? I just keep getting lucky with these -ev bets which get me limited at every book, funny how that works. Why would they limit players making -ev bets?
Lol gaze gto here. you re a low level betor and should be learning not spreading BS
Gaze73 you should stay away from sports betting
If it was all about the numbers PERIOD! then all winners would be limited or banned very quickly. Since that doesn't happen maybe you should consider that your assumption is incorrect.
Books are looking at multiple aspects:
1) Do you specialise on 1 type of bet?, (EG: soccer overs).
2) Is it only 1 sport?
3) Are you betting minor sports or lower leagues?
4) Are you betting to a system?
5) Are you picking on bad lines, chasing steam, arbing, etc?
6) How much do your bets take out/staking amounts?
7) Do you bet on futures that have high profit margins for a book?
I'm in profit 10 out of 11 months this year, tell me more about what I should be learning.
1) No
2) No
3) Rarely
4) What's a system from the book's PoV? Every pick that's not random is based on a system.
5) I chase steamers on Pinny
6) Not much
7) No
So according to the pros here I'm a -EV player who gets limited for no reason at every recreational book, even 5Dimes. Look at my latest NHL thread, I went "20-9 +13.14" just like I promised. When I said dog Buffalo is free money they won 4:0, according to you it was a bad play because every closing line play on Pinny is apparently -EV. The Efficient Market™ is always right. When I asked 365 support to lift my limits they reviewed my account and refused. Why don't you guys talk to them on by behalf to tell them I'm a clueless guy who just wants to lose money on their live bets?
You are the one asking questions all the time, then people give their opinions and you start crying that you are right and everyone else is wrong.
if you dont want others input, its simple - dont ask.
So you are very likely beating the closing line, which is why you are in profit.
As said above, it's been discussed thousands of times. I remember a lively similar discussion with you here where your system was going to make you filthy rich in about 3-4 months time. That's been well over a year ago and yet you're still here.
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