[semibluff]

1) No
2) No
3) Rarely
4) What's a system from the book's PoV? Every pick that's not random is based on a system.
5) I chase steamers on Pinny
6) Not much
7) No
So according to the pros here I'm a -EV player who gets limited for no reason at every recreational book, even 5Dimes. Look at my latest NHL thread, I went "20-9 +13.14" just like I promised. When I said dog Buffalo is free money they won 4:0, according to you it was a bad play because every closing line play on Pinny is apparently -EV. The Efficient Market™ is always right. When I asked 365 support to lift my limits they reviewed my account and refused. Why don't you guys talk to them on by behalf to tell them I'm a clueless guy who just wants to lose money on their live bets?

You're welcome to disagree with what I said. I haven't worked inside the industry in a very long time. I doubt books have become so sophisticated that account decisions are automated. If people are still involved then they're going to look for certain traits and markers. If you can disguise the betting traits they don't want to see and show them betting traits that they do want to see then logically your account will last longer.

[Gaze73]

So you are very likely beating the closing line, which is why you are in profit.

As said above, it's been discussed thousands of times. I remember a lively similar discussion with you here where your system was going to make you filthy rich in about 3-4 months time. That's been well over a year ago and yet you're still here.

I don't beat the closing line, I just know when to bet on steamers and when to fade them. Besides, that's just a part of my portfolio. If chasing steam on pinny is so easy why doesn't everyone do it?

My systems work and the bankroll grows steadily, that's all I need. It could grow faster but I'm not comfortable with half kelly staking yet. The point is that picking winners works. I just grabbed Tsitsipas +1.5 against aging Fed, see what happened. Why do I keep making these horrible -ev bets? Somebody stop me.

[Gaze73]

You're welcome to disagree with what I said. I haven't worked inside the industry in a very long time. I doubt books have become so sophisticated that account decisions are automated. If people are still involved then they're going to look for certain traits and markers. If you can disguise the betting traits they don't want to see and show them betting traits that they do want to see then logically your account will last longer.

I just think bookies hate people who bet on dog singles instead of parlaying fav MLs. After all, why would a recreational player pick the worse team? My father probably didn't pick a team from the bottom of the league table in 30 years.

[StackinGreen]

I just think bookies hate people who bet on dog singles instead of parlaying fav MLs. After all, why would a recreational player pick the worse team? My father probably didn't pick a team from the bottom of the league table in 30 years.

Exactly. When I was killing bookies on round robins in baseball, the first thing they did was say, "No 4 team parlays" and the next was "Only 1 underdog" allowed.

[dj_destroyer]

Personally, I parlay some edges which raises my variance (but still definitely +EV) to make it look like I'm mush. I also mix in some play at the live casino were I count cards with a program so although I'm likely down in the casino, it isn't much. I'd say less than $1000 over ~10k hands but again, it puts up a good facade for my actual play. It also doesn't hurt that I'm extremely small timer!

[dj_destroyer]

Ah, you're one of those "the market is efficient" guys. What if I told you I make most of my profit on closing lines at Pinny? Today I took 2 draws again out of hundreds of matches and both won @4.54 and @4.75 with big dogs scoring first. According to your theory those were -ev bets. But why do you think I chose those exact two games and not other games at those exact odds? Why did I ignore all the other games? I also had exactly one pick on Over 2.5 and it ended with 5 goals. Why did I pick this specific game? I just keep getting lucky with these -ev bets which get me limited at every book, funny how that works. Why would they limit players making -ev bets?

In this post and others, you brush with having the right idea but seem to completely ignore it in favour of your gut feeling wins that you keep reeling off. Challenge: start a thread and post your plays for a couple weeks. I would love to see you hit a few 4x odds on your own personal skill. 1% of gamblers can do it.

[Gaze73]

Efficient market bro, I just got lucky bro.

[curry2211]

Efficient market bro, I just got lucky bro.

What is your point ? Who do you need to prove something ? If you make money, fine -if not, also fine. I thought this about figuring out why and when bet365 is giving limits to players?

[Gaze73]

What is your point ? Who do you need to prove something ? If you make money, fine -if not, also fine. I thought this about figuring out why and when bet365 is giving limits to players?

I usually bet closing lines, which means I'm a -ev player according to people here. All non-asian books limit me. Why do they limit -ev players? If I'm just getting lucky as people here think, the books should keep me around until I lose it all back. If I'm not just getting lucky the market is not efficient. In other words "picking winners" is a viable strategy and books don't seem to like people who pick winners.

[ZAMAZA]

How much money have you made this year?

Where do you bet?

[Alfa1234]

I usually bet closing lines, which means I'm a -ev player according to people here. All non-asian books limit me. Why do they limit -ev players? If I'm just getting lucky as people here think, the books should keep me around until I lose it all back. If I'm not just getting lucky the market is not efficient. In other words "picking winners" is a viable strategy and books don't seem to like people who pick winners.

Why would you care if they limit you if you're only betting closing lines? The asians + Bookmaker.eu or Betcris should be all you need.

[Gaze73]

Why would you care if they limit you if you're only betting closing lines? The asians + Bookmaker.eu or Betcris should be all you need.

Bookmaker and cris have shit odds. Soft books have very good odds on draws and dogs, higher than asian books. E.g. Pinny has a dog at 4.9 and Bet365 at 5.5.

[Alfa1234]

Bookmaker and cris have shit odds. Soft books have very good odds on draws and dogs, higher than asian books. E.g. Pinny has a dog at 4.9 and Bet365 at 5.5.

You complain they limit you...yet you take odds where they beat the Pinnacle line. There is your reason. It's also why you are winning.

[Gaze73]

You complain they limit you...yet you take odds where they beat the Pinnacle line. There is your reason. It's also why you are winning.

No that's not the reason I'm winning, I hate how you just jump to conclusions. I said I make money at pinnacle closing odds, not 365 closing odds. And if they don't want people to take higher odds than pinnacle's how fukking hard is it to lower them?

[Alfa1234]

No that's not the reason I'm winning, I hate how you just jump to conclusions. I said I make money at pinnacle closing odds, not 365 closing odds. And if they don't want people to take higher odds than pinnacle's how fukking hard is it to lower them?

No, you are right. Your "system" of picking winners using a certain method is the reason you are winning. You've found a way to beat the market that doesn't involve beating the closing line long term. Congrats. You've done something millions of others have failed at. I applaud you and your record.

If you make money at Pinnacle closing odds, you don't need bet365 by the way. You'll be fine using the asians. I suggest you try and get a Betfair clone account, you'll find their odds are higher than Pinnacle.

[lonnie55]

Gaze73 is above math laws

[Gaze73]

No, you are right. Your "system" of picking winners using a certain method is the reason you are winning. You've found a way to beat the market that doesn't involve beating the closing line long term. Congrats. You've done something millions of others have failed at. I applaud you and your record.

If you make money at Pinnacle closing odds, you don't need bet365 by the way. You'll be fine using the asians. I suggest you try and get a Betfair clone account, you'll find their odds are higher than Pinnacle.

It's not even that hard. There are patterns in everything at every odds range. The dumbass market always makes the same mistakes. I never tried to beat the closing line because the books probably make less mistakes than the market and you usually need some info about missing players to get a decent edge. Some guys pick a team that plays in 3 days and the odds drop by 50% by kickoff, I have no idea how to do that.

It's still better to have soft books available because higher odds are always good obviously. 20% roi pick is better than 10%.

[lonnie55]

the books probably make less mistakes than the market

LOL

[Brooklyn]

Bookmaker and cris have shit odds. Soft books have very good odds on draws and dogs, higher than asian books. E.g. Pinny has a dog at 4.9 and Bet365 at 5.5.

LIke Alfa1234 already mentioned above:

Placing a bet at Bet365 @ 5.5 (when Pinny has it @4.9 at the same time) is the reason why they limit you.

Bet365 don't care if closing line of that same bet ends higher at their sportsbook, for example @6.0
(which indeed means you didn't beat the closing line)

All they care is: that you beat them on the line, that was HIGHER than elsewhere (at Pinny), at the time you made your bet.

[Gaze73]

LOL

What's so funny. You think the odds makers are dumb? If they can make mistakes then so does the market, everyone is human.

Btw, it's almost 2020 and there is still no ai-based predictor that I know of that would make any money. There are websites that claim to have algorithms that crunch hundreds of different variables to make the predictions and yet every predictor I've tried is worthless. Literally doesn't matter if it predicts 3:0 or 0:1, what matters is odds.

[Gaze73]

LIke Alfa1234 already mentioned above:

Placing a bet at Bet365 @ 5.5 (when Pinny has it @4.9 at the same time) is the reason why they limit you.

Bet365 don't care if closing line of that same bet ends higher at their sportsbook, for example @6.0
(which indeed means you didn't beat the closing line)

All they care is: that you beat them on the line, that was HIGHER than elsewhere (at Pinny), at the time you made your bet.

Alright so if I had a new 365 account and only made live bets you're saying they wouldn't limit me even if I kept winning?

[lonnie55]

Took me some time to figure out that you're just trolling

[Gaze73]

Alright I guess I should continue my NHL thread just to show you clowns. But if I end the season with 100+ units Alfa will just say it was a lucky run so is there really a point?

[semibluff]

It's not even that hard. There are patterns in everything at every odds range. The dumbass market always makes the same mistakes. I never tried to beat the closing line because the books probably make less mistakes than the market and you usually need some info about missing players to get a decent edge. Some guys pick a team that plays in 3 days and the odds drop by 50% by kickoff, I have no idea how to do that.

It's still better to have soft books available because higher odds are always good obviously. 20% roi pick is better than 10%.

I'm not arguing whether you win or not, or how much you win. If you win with a high ROI you're going to get noticed. If you can break even on other 'main' sports that the books want you to bet, then betting on those sports at 0 ROI will help disguise the threat you pose to books. It 'might' keep you from being limited or booted at soft books a bit longer. If you're normally a large stakes bettor then consider betting tiny stakes on golf tournament outrights. Books love the 200% mark-up. Having 60 losers to 1 winner at +3000 is obviously -EV betting but used as false advertising for a 1 or 2 unit loss over a period of time it will dramatically lower your bet winning %...and that may keep a net-winning account alive.

Then again, it may not.

[Stin]

Guy C use a lot of accounts, sometimes new account for every single bet.
By the way it’s not a big deal to have ROI 20% in bet365.
ROI 10% at pinny closing line it’s a big deal, but depends on the market.

[Alfa1234]

Alright I guess I should continue my NHL thread just to show you clowns. But if I end the season with 100+ units Alfa will just say it was a lucky run so is there really a point?

Do it for 5 seasons and I will humbly apologise and say I was wrong.

[Poisec]

What's so funny. You think the odds makers are dumb? If they can make mistakes then so does the market, everyone is human.

The market is definitely more accurate than the odds maker, I mean check Pinnacle opening odds, very often they are off, it's just hard to bet on these odds because the value doesn't remain for very long.
There is a reason why Pinnacle increases the betting limits a few hours before an event starts.

[Gaze73]

The market is definitely more accurate than the odds maker, I mean check Pinnacle opening odds, very often they are off, it's just hard to bet on these odds because the value doesn't remain for very long.
There is a reason why Pinnacle increases the betting limits a few hours before an event starts.

What about when they shade the lines and the market takes the bait hook line and sinker? Why does one fav @1.8 get 90% support and another fav at the same odds gets 40% support? Probably because one is in super hot form and the other is slumping. You think odds makers don't know about the form?

[jgarz2]

Great thread.. lets keep this on topic here- 365 limiting players

It simply comes down to when you're betting and what line you get vs the close. Making your action less conspicuous using the exchange or off shore market is a great tool if you have enough roi in your sharp plays to sacrifice it a bit. Sometimes it's arbitrary which accounts get limited depending on whose looking at it. But it all channels back to the first two points

[Gaze73]

No, you are right. Your "system" of picking winners using a certain method is the reason you are winning. You've found a way to beat the market that doesn't involve beating the closing line long term. Congrats. You've done something millions of others have failed at. I applaud you and your record.

If you make money at Pinnacle closing odds, you don't need bet365 by the way. You'll be fine using the asians. I suggest you try and get a Betfair clone account, you'll find their odds are higher than Pinnacle.

Here's an example of picking a winner. I took Cherepovets ML @7, it was my only hockey bet today. The market gave CSKA an ~86% chance to win on ML (1.15 odds). Does it look like the price was justified? Does it look like I just got lucky yet again? It's clear as day the market is dumb as rocks if they bet on Moscow at those odds, period. There's bad form and then there's "what the actual hell is going on with these guys" form. Given their form I would've expected a steady drift to at least 1.5 in the 3-way market.

[turbobets]

There's bad form and then there's "what the actual hell is going on with these guys" form. Given their form I would've expected a steady drift to at least 1.5 in the 3-way market.

Your betting short term trends or am I misunderstanding?

[Gaze73]

Your betting short term trends or am I misunderstanding?

No, there's a hundred ways to skin a cat, this was just one example. If a team has some obvious internal issues their season stats don't matter much. League leader shouldn't be losing to huge dogs in 7 out of 10 games. But hey if the market thinks that's completely normal I'll keep cashing my dog tickets.

[Believe_EMT]

winners don't talk

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The market is definitely more accurate than the odds maker, I mean check Pinnacle

opening

odds ….

Only got this to hand for tennis, but here's a measure of pinny odds accuracy for various levels, I think since 2010 (lower is better):

Over time pin openers have got sharper though, and the gap between opening and closing price has reduced - about half what it was five years ago iirc.

[Okieirish]

Move to Vegas. Bet what you want. Keep your bet's under whatever the taxable winning limit is.