1. 08-31-10 06:30 PM #1
    George7904
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    How much of an advantage is this correlated parlay?

    I have an out that will allow me to parlay the favorite -37.5 and over 52. How much of an advantage is this? What is the expected return? I am guessing that it would be about 10% or so.
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  2. 08-31-10 06:32 PM #2
    Bluehorseshoe
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    It's getting brutal in here.
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  3. 08-31-10 06:39 PM #3
    George7904
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    Why is it getting brutal? What do you mean by that? Justin says (in previous posts) that anything above a 38.5% ratio is advantageous. This is over 70%. Am I misinterpreting your comment? This out is a clueless local.
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  4. 08-31-10 06:49 PM #4
    IrishTim
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    What percent of the total is the spread?
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  5. 08-31-10 06:54 PM #5
    George7904
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    72%. 37.5/52
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  6. 08-31-10 07:39 PM #6
    Justin7
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    guessing quickly, the two good boxes (+37.5/und 52 and -37.5/ov52) will each hit maybe 34%. The dog will do slightly better.

    If those numbers are good (and I didn't do a DB search to guess on those) and you get 2.6:1 on 2 teamers,
    EV = 0.34 * 2.6 - 0.66 = 0.224, or 22.4%.
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  7. 08-31-10 08:18 PM #7
    George7904
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    Sorry, to ask another question (I'm not being lazy, I just don't know where to start with the math). How did you come up with the 34% hit ratio?
    Last edited by George7904; 08-31-10 at 08:24 PM.
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  8. 08-31-10 08:29 PM #8
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by George7904 View Post
    Sorry, to ask another question (I'm not being lazy, I just don't know where to start with the math). How did you come up with the 34% hit ratio?
    It was a guess.

    If you want a better guess, look at a database. Compare how often a college game with a total to line ratio of 1.5 (or 1.4 to 1.6) hits dog/under, and fav/over.
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  9. 09-01-10 05:42 AM #9
    IrishTim
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    Quote Originally Posted by George7904 View Post
    72%. 37.5/52
    Correct, now you need to run a database analysis as Justin said to generate an expected winning percentages for the parlay. From there, calculating your EV is a trivial task.
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  10. 09-01-10 08:55 AM #10
    Bill the cop
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    Quote Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Correct, now you need to run a database analysis as Justin said to generate an expected winning percentages for the parlay. From there, calculating your EV is a trivial task.

    Here ya go. With a LTR of 1.39 for the full game the F/O covers 34.6% of the time, the D/U covers at a 29.5% rate (using a LTR range of 1.3 to 1.5).
    Last edited by Bill the cop; 09-01-10 at 11:33 AM.
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  11. 09-01-10 09:24 AM #11
    Flight
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    Bill, did you use a historical game database to get your numbers? If so, what league and what years did you query?

    Thanks.
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  12. 09-01-10 09:31 AM #12
    Bill the cop
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    2000-2009, database of 6338 college games with lines posted on Don Best.
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  13. 09-01-10 02:16 PM #13
    Flight
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    Nice database, wish I had Don Best's closing lines.

    I'm surprised to see F/O cover more than D/U. In the query that I ran, D/U was around 38% and F/O was around 26%. (Only looked at 2008 and 2009 NCAAFB though).
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  14. 09-29-19 10:59 AM #14
    dj_destroyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the cop View Post
    2000-2009, database of 6338 college games with lines posted on Don Best.
    Sorry for bumping super old thread but anyway this database has been kept updated? I have a local who doesn't have a clue about correlation. I'm wondering how you and Flight could have such different numbers. Wondering what the real ratio is.
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  15. 10-07-19 08:19 AM #15
    Believe_EMT
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    looks like Filght only used 2 years of data which suggests a much smaller data set and could present wildly different results. might only cover a handful of games
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