Originally Posted by
robjow
I was going to work it out this way: say for anytime a team loses, the percentage of the time it was leading at 3QT is 10%.
So I want to play this promotion on the Bulls who are paying 2.60 vs Team X. So their chance of winning is roughly 1/2.60 = 38%
Therefore 62% of the time they will lose and 10% of those times they will have been leading at 3QT = 6.2%
I can then compare this to the effective odds I'm getting by backing and laying on Betfair to see if its profitable. How's that looking?