[JohnAnthony]

Hello,

I'm J.A., a reformed degenerate that was an (overly) active member of SBR. I took on sports very seriously late in 2011, and have been wildly (and unexpectedly) profitable since then. I'm only saying this so that the wiseguys on here do attempt to take this query seriously. I'm no longer a Players Talk junkey.

Here it is:

- What is the significance of BTCL in soccer, in comparison to NBA?
(assuming we're betting spreads, not moneylines where 3 outcomes are possible in soccer)

Is it as significant?

- What is a significant difference between my odds and the closing line? In NBA, and in soccer (if you have tested the latter)

Is a 0.10 margin good enough?

- What is the effect of the actual price range on my BTCL margin?

Meaning: Is it any more/less significant if I BTCL with these odds:

J.A.: 2.05
Closing: 1.95

OR with these ones:

J.A.: 1.95
Closing: 1.85


Cheers guys,
J.A.

[mathdotcom]

BTCL is as significant in any sport. If you do it you will win in the long run, period. There are always conditions, but in theory beating the closing line in a more efficient market should be better since you can be more confident you're on the right side. Beating the closing line in Darts probably means less because who knows whether the closing line is accurate at all. It should still be +EV though since you could probably scalp it back for a guaranteed profit.

Can't answer the question of what margin is large enough. It depends how confident you are in your model. If you're sure your model is perfect then a 0.0001 margin is enough. It seems most guys want at least a 1% margin. In most markets that I bet there are enough opportunities to focus on the better margins available. I am always skeptical of my models and re-evaluating them, so I like a decent margin so I can be confident I'm on the right side.

In terms of EV there is no difference, however for the maximization of expected growth you should prefer the second case. ) Think of it at an extreme case, imagine your model says the true line is +1000000 but the posted line is +2000000. You have a huge edge, but this sucks because you could bet for a long long time and never win even though each bet has +EV.

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks for your reply! I don't have a system per se, but I'm in the process of forming one, or at least making it easier for me to compile historical numbers and current trends to make bets.

BTCL is as significant in any sport. If you do it you will win in the long run, period. There are always conditions, but in theory beating the closing line in a more efficient market should be better since you can be more confident you're on the right side. Beating the closing line in Darts probably means less because who knows whether the closing line is accurate at all. It should still be +EV though since you could probably scalp it back for a guaranteed profit.

Especially regarding the 2nd emphasized sentence of yours: So the more money in the market, the more significant the BTCL? I guess for soccer that means that BTCL is important enough, even in relatively small margins (then again, as you say, what is small?)

Can't answer the question of what margin is large enough. It depends how confident you are in your model. If you're sure your model is perfect then a 0.0001 margin is enough. It seems most guys want at least a 1% margin. In most markets that I bet there are enough opportunities to focus on the better margins available. I am always skeptical of my models and re-evaluating them, so I like a decent margin so I can be confident I'm on the right side.

at least 1% margin between BTCL and our line? so 2.02 vs. 2.00 is def. enough? (I'm only saying this because you said at least)

In terms of EV there is no difference, however for the maximization of expected growth you should prefer the second case. Think of it at an extreme case, imagine your model says the true line is +1000000 but the posted line is +2000000. You have a huge edge, but this sucks because you could bet for a long long time and never win even though each bet has +EV.

Hmmm, makes perfect sense despite the extreme.

--

Thanks again!

[FourLengthsClear]

Hello,

Here it is:

- What is the significance of BTCL in soccer, in comparison to NBA?
(assuming we're betting spreads, not moneylines where 3 outcomes are possible in soccer)

Is it as significant?

No more, no less in my experience. It, of course, depends on how you define the "closing line" but of you take the last available (no-vig) odds at Betfair/SBOBet you won't go far wrong.

- What is a significant difference between my odds and the closing line? In NBA, and in soccer (if you have tested the latter)

Is a 0.10 margin good enough?

- What is the effect of the actual price range on my BTCL margin?

Meaning: Is it any more/less significant if I BTCL with these odds:

J.A.: 2.05
Closing: 1.95

Taking these two questions together, your edge is calculated as a percentage. If you take the 'closing line' as being the fair line then your edge using the above odds would be.

Implied win probability of the closing line: 51.28%
divided by
Implied win probability of your odds: 48.78%
equals
1.0513 representing an edge of 5.13%

[JohnAnthony]

Implied win probability of the closing line: 51.28%
divided by
Implied win probability of your odds: 48.78%
equals
1.0513 representing an edge of 5.13%

Can you offer a way of calculating those? thanks!

[FourLengthsClear]

Can you offer a way of calculating those? thanks!

1 divided by decimal odds.

So
1 divided by 1.95 = 51.28%
1 divided by 2.05 = 48.78%

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks guys, much to learn still!

[JohnAnthony]

Actually, one more question: What is the range of possible edges is regular?

Let me clarify: if I rate my confidence on a game in a scale of 1 to 10, and I get an edge of 3%, where does that sit in terms of my bet size?

If edges usually range from 1-10%, then the answer is 3%, but what range is normal?


Thank you guys

[FourLengthsClear]

Actually, one more question: What is the range of possible edges is regular?

Let me clarify: if I rate my confidence on a game in a scale of 1 to 10, and I get an edge of 3%, where does that sit in terms of my bet size?

If edges usually range from 1-10%, then the answer is 3%, but what range is normal?


Thank you guys

It really depends on you.

If you want to go in the direction of being a volume bettor then Kelly Criterion suggests that you should wager on every +EV opportunity, betting small amounts where you have a small edge (say 1%) but very large amounts when you have a substantial eqges (like 10% or more).

There is a Kelly claculator here


You should certainly search on this forum for the threads started by Ganchrow on Kelly Criterion.

To utilise Kelly you have to be sure that the edges you are identifying are real however, a comparison between your own calculated fair line, the closing line and real-life results over a substantial sample of matches is needed.

If you don't like the idea of Kelly then it is still possible to come up with your own 'staking plan' which incorporates the same principles (which are mathematically sound).

[JohnAnthony]

It really depends on you.

If you want to go in the direction of being a volume bettor then Kelly Criterion suggests that you should wager on every +EV opportunity, betting small amounts where you have a small edge (say 1%) but very large amounts when you have a substantial eqges (like 10% or more).

There is a Kelly claculator here
You should certainly search on this forum for the threads started by Ganchrow on Kelly Criterion.

To utilise Kelly you have to be sure that the edges you are identifying are real however, a comparison between your own calculated fair line, the closing line and real-life results over a substantial sample of matches is needed.

If you don't like the idea of Kelly then it is still possible to come up with your own 'staking plan' which incorporates the same principles (which are mathematically sound).

Thank you!

Edge is the amount I'll win in the long term (in percentages/ROI?) if I bet according to my edge?

[Stef@n]

No more, no less in my experience. It, of course, depends on how you define the "closing line" but of you take the last available (no-vig) odds at Betfair/SBOBet you won't go far wrong.

If you look at the last EPL season (380 games) you'll see that the opening number was significantly more accurate. Betting 10$ blindly on favourites at no-vig odds would've resulted in loss of -0.66% of your investment had you been taking openers, -3.29 % had you been taking closers. I'm talking about 3-way market at Pinnacle.

Small sample but still...

Sorry for bad English

[allin1]

No more, no less in my experience. It, of course, depends on how you define the "closing line" but of you take the last available (no-vig) odds at Betfair/SBOBet you won't go far wrong.

How come betfair and sbobet and not pinnacle?

[strixee]

How come betfair and sbobet and not pinnacle?

SBO has higher limits on soccer than Pinnacle. However all Betfair, IBC, SBO and Pinny provide very accurate numbers. IMHO BF is the best one.

[allin1]

SBO has higher limits on soccer than Pinnacle.

I didn't know this. Interesting.

[CHUBNUT]

all these theories are a good base to work from but the reality has to be a lot more flexible. If you price up a team +100 what do you do if the best odds available is -105, stick with the theories and call no bet then watch the closing line hit -115. you end up tearing your hair out. in 3 way soccer betting theres no excuse for not beating the closing line almost always such is the competition, you may have to constantly open new accounts in different names but thats the reality if you win, your accounts get closed. there are sharp bettors who laugh at the theories put across on forums like this, especially euro bettors who will tell you the price is never far off being realistic and selection prowess is more important.

[JohnAnthony]

Since this has been brought up the TT forum again, I'll ask something that hasn't been answered, what margin is a significant one? what margin is big enough to say "I beat the closing line nicely"..2 cents? 10 cents? 40 cents?

[allin1]

Since this has been brought up the TT forum again, I'll ask something that hasn't been answered, what margin is a significant one? what margin is big enough to say "I beat the closing line nicely"..2 cents? 10 cents? 40 cents?

In the following video justin7 says (at about minute 7.55) that if you btcl by 2 cents you already have an edge. He also says that for every 2 cents you btcl you have a 1% edge against the house.



and here is another one for those who haven't seen it

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks a lot man, I remember watching this a long time ago but for some reason I don't remember the part about the 2 cents.

It seems a bit oversimplified though - getting 1.97 for a line that closed at 1.95 must be more significant than getting 2.02 for a line that closed at 2.00, or am I wrong? (given all other circumstances like betting volume, sports, games, are the same)