[hillardoh]

does anybody know what power ratings las vegas sports consultants use? They are the guys who set the spread for vegas. This info seems to be top secret. Any information on how they set the lines would be appreciated thanks.

[suicidekings]

Not sure I understand what you mean. They generate their own lines for all the sports, based on their own stats databases, research, and sources throughout the sports world. Each of them has a lot of experience and they build a consensus on many of the lines before they release them.

They don't use a third party source for power ratings or anything like that...

[hillardoh]

ok i found it the information is key go to vegassportsconnect.com

[hillardoh]

the million dollar question is how do they come up with this information

[THE PROFIT]

This may be purely coincidental, but I have taken Sagarins power rankings, the ones to the far right that factor in strength of schedule, & added the 3.09 for HF and 85-90% of the opening lines were right on or within .5 point. What I do is figure out the line by Sagarins power ratings on Sun morn for every game. Then I print the actual opening lines that are just a few hours old. That is the true line if it's within a point of the PR line. What the public bets it up or down to is where you can find value

[Reload]

Sagarin's ratings are not bad to go by and are often not too different in differentials from LVSC. I have especially found Sagarin's ratings good to use in identifying home dogs in football that might be undervalued.

[Sawyer]

Not to mention, Vegas lines are SERIOUSLY effected by Public Perception. If the line is 208, it doesnt mean that Vegas is expecting 208 points! Their goal is to set equal action in both sides..

[filter15]

What sawyer said

[IrishTim]

Not necessarily. Many bookmakers will say "yeah, two-way action is nice but that's not where the money is".

[Justin7]

Not necessarily. Many bookmakers will say "yeah, two-way action is nice but that's not where the money is".

Very few bookmakers want positions. At least those that stick around for a long time.

[Peeig]

Very few bookmakers want positions. At least those that stick around for a long time.

Why is that Justin? As long as the bookmaker has a large enough bankroll why wouldn't positions be more profitable (although with more variance) than equal action. I guess you would need to know your market well to take a position. Probably a more likely scenario for a local bookmaker vs an online bookmaker. Risk increases, but so does profit.....right?

[2TURN70]

I knew a BM from MILW, in 8yrs only one person ever beat him. The old lady with a shoe box full of money.
He told me Sports betting is streaky, your having a run of good luck, it will always turn around, and do a 180 on you.
Myself, I don't beelieve it. If you do your homework you can adv 58% +++++ over a long period of time.

[statnerds]

Gotta back Justin and Sawyer on this one as well. Public perception is the biggest factor in setting of lines. At least NFL wise. I have no idea of the size and scope of markets for other leagues.

BMs are just conduits to move money, much like a stock broker. money moves, in most cases, from the ill-prepared and uninformed to the informed and prepared investor (bettor). exposure is bad for a book, if it wasn't there would be little line adjustment if any.

I'm planning a blog on impact of sharp money, or the myth of it, some time here now that i am unemployed and have free time.

[IrishTim]

Very few bookmakers want positions. At least those that stick around for a long time.

Really? I read The Odds by Chad Millman a while ago. Don't have the book in front of me, but he spent a college hoops season following two Vegas "wiseguys" and I believe the main bookmaker at the old Stardust (his name escapes me). I remember a quote where he said something very close to what I previously posted about one-sided action being where the $ is.

[suicidekings]

Really? I read The Odds by Chad Millman a while ago. Don't have the book in front of me, but he spent a college hoops season following two Vegas "wiseguys" and I believe the main bookmaker at the old Stardust (his name escapes me). I remember a quote where he said something very close to what I previously posted about one-sided action being where the $ is.

Think of it this way: A wager you lay at the book, putting down 110 to win 100, is essentially the book placing an opposing wager as 100 to win 110. They're taking money on both sides, so they're betting both sides of a game at +110, completely risk free, assuming they can balance the wagers. Balancing the wagers is a relatively simple process that's completely market driven, if you place the opening line correctly. The books can sit back knowing that they'll be in the black at the end of the day on any game they can keep balanced.

If I told you you could bet on any game you want at +110 on both sides, doesn't that seem more appealing than putting hours of work in handicapping so you can risk your money on one side of a game, only to then be relying on the hope that Brett Favre ate his wheaties this morning?

[suicidekings]

Then, when the books have a substantial portion of their income assured, they're free to take risks on select games that they have strong opinions about if they desire, but again, would you?

The books aren't interested in gambling. They're interested in maintaining profit margins.

[20Four7]

Then, when the books have a substantial portion of their income assured, they're free to take risks on select games that they have strong opinions about if they desire, but again, would you?

The books aren't interested in gambling. They're interested in maintaining profit margins.

Completely true, but then again there are some books who are interested in gambling that's where you get the Pinny lean. But getting +110 on each side doesn't happen anymore.

[arwar]

In theory if all action were -110 and the action were even on all propositons and ignoring pushes, the book would win 50% and lose 50%, resulting in a net gain of 5% of the total action. In reality the action on any particular game is rarely split exactly 50/50. So the book has a position on the game, albeit not by choice. The desirable position for the book then becomes to keep the action close enough where it is a win on ether side. E.G. if team A wins the book may win $10000 and if team B wins the book wins $30000. In other words the juice on one side covers the potential loss on the other side. In order to insure that this is the case some local books use layoffs and then root for the best outcome. Other locals just hold everything. In either case that's why local guy will say 'I need so and so', because he wins more that way. It is well known that more action goes on the favs, but what is not so well known and which I can't explain, is that the wagering public loses more than 50% of their plays. I need to start a thread on gambler's ruin.

[statnerds]

also read The odds and found it enjoyable, cept for the guy winning 5 tmr parlays on a regular basis. that tested my logic.

i'm sure books usually get lopsided action Sundays cause we know the public loves backing the fav and over. doesn't that make you think lines are shaded to the teams books think public will be backing?

does 'Sharp' money even exist anymore? every Joe Johnny Square Bettor can start hitting lines at 7 p.m. Sunday night for the next week's NFL. the market is nowhere near what it used to be when Chad wrote that book.

Find me a book that doesn't have an absurd limit anymore on games. so unless 'sharps' have ghosts accounts or online runners, books can easily absorb any 'sharp' money on any NFL game.

also, i tracked early line movements and used a weekly Vegas recap from some guy in Vegas every week and those line movements, normally attributed to the sharps, were under .500 for the year.

so either sharps aren't that sharp, or the market is so saturated their effect is now muddled.

of course we also need to define sharp. line movers or bettors that get the best CLV, a majority of EV+ straight and teaser plays, etc.

[DOMINATER]

You couldn't get near that guy for all the money in the world,well I wouldn't go that far but there is one guy and that it .

[Jonah]

You couldn't get near that guy for all the money in the world,well I wouldn't go that far but there is one guy and that it .

The Devil?

[DOMINATER]

sorry sawyer thats what the have sold the public.its not true. Do you think Vegas could operate on 10 percent profit. not only that if you had the potential to make all kinds of money what would you do ?There is a very limited amount of men who make all the lines,andthe the process was adopted from when the mob ran Vegas. The line is adjusted by public opinion and other factors such as when the powers to be have a very strong interest of the outcome they raise or lower it not. if a team lets say the Pats start off at 6 point line and because of any number a factors it is raised to 7 and one half the public thinks alot of action is being put on the pats with that info your immediate reaction is to bet the pats they are that good , any how it only means another field goal thats nothing. With a little luck a safety could be the difference or one lousy blocked extra point, not only you increase your original bet, you double it. In reality not much was going on in fact MOST ACTION IS IN THE LAST HOUR BEFORE THE GAME GOES OFF. The point is your giving Vegas to much credit,They really want people to bet the Pats to bet because betters have very long memories of teams that had great past tons of money is bet for the pats to win instead of Vegas winning in your theory 10 percent, they win bushels of cash, why because the public is easily fooled. by the way the difference between 6 and 7 and a half is way way more than the point and a half ,you may relieze that but many betters have no idea.

[THE PROFIT]

As a former local BM, you really don't have to have all the games even, it only happens in a perfect world. It all comes out in the wash by Monday night & the book has made 10% or more! The key is having a large client base. Just keep your action fairly balanced & the book is fine. As a bookie, you are allowing joe public to sweat out capping & nervously make bets on scared money & you set back & take the other side at better odds!!! EASY MONEY

[skrtelfan]

The Stardust used to use the old "Stardust library."

[DOMINATER]

i know how they make the line and why its so accurate

[durito]

i know how they make the line and why its so accurate

define accurate

[JELLYBEAN]

Very few BM's want positions? Are you kidding? I have worked for in this business since 89. In many huge offices in NYC before most went offshore or retired. I am talking 12-1500 clients at most of these shops. Maybe 30-40 sharps out of those(In the old days it was first come first serve, so you could have 1000 sharps and only one gets in) and in none of these offices did we ever lay off any action. On a sunday we would pick up the phone at 11 am and put are heads down and write till kickoff. Every game we had huge positions, and week in and week out we made money, for the 23 years I worked clerking and running shops. We did not have one losing season in any office.

Show me the math with my above statement how no bookmaker who wants to stay in business wants a position.


You think CRIS makes money just because they charge -110. They have huge positions on a lot of games. They do not decide which side they want, the clients decide what the position will be. How do you think Sacco got so rich, evening out his positions..........LOL


Put your head down and write................and you will make money......................every year

[BigdaddyQH]

A lot of interesting stuff in here, but here are the important things to remember. While it is not always the case, basically the books are in business to make money, NOT to gamble, so in the vast majority of instances, they will do their best to balance out the money going on each team. The key word here being money. They could care less how many people are on a certain team. The money is what talks in Vegas.

As far as the LVSC is concerned, Public Perception does affect the lines, and this is how the wiseguys make all of their money. The wiseguys who can figure out the Public Perception and how many points it added/subracted from a line are the ones who make money in this business. Remember, the LVSC is basically in business to set lines that will get asn even amount of play on both sides. These lines do not necessairily reflect who SHOULD win the game, but rather who Joe Pub thinks will win the game, and by how much. If you have a good solid data base, you should have a big advantage, because in solid data bases like the one our group uses, we come out with lines that have nothing do go with Public Perception. That is how you make money in this business.

By the way Dominator, if Vegas casinos could guarantee a 10% profit, they would be very happy. All you said in your long rambling dissertation is exactly what we are talking about. Public Perception. It matter not HOW that perception starts. It only matters that it is there. NOw while it is true that most of the money wagered on a game comes down late, the successful cartels and syndicates also wager very early, on the "lead line", thus creating middle possibilities, and as anyone will tell you, a middle is the best way of achieveing the maximum return while risking the minimum amount of money.

What Vegas has to guard against, is a situation like what happened in yesterday's UCLA-Temple game. Temple gets a huge jump and is up 11 at the half. Those who took Temple at +150 are now in the perfect hedge situation. Jump on UCLA - the points in the second half for 125 and you are guaranteed a winner. Now 25 for every 225 wagered is not a huge win, but it is guaranteed money, and a damn site better than you bank will give you. If I can guarantee an 11% R.O.I. on every wager that I make, I will be very happy. Now if enough people do this, say bye-bye to your profits.

One othe thing to consider. The Vegas books do not have to make 10% on straight wagers. This is because they make so much on their sucker plays (Parlays, Teasers, Reverse wagers, If wagers, and Prop wagers) that they can afford to break even on the straight wagers and still show a nice profit. All of those wagers have huge built in percentages favoring the house. So there is a lot more thanjust a straight wager that determines a book's success or failure.

Also remember where you wager makes a huge difference. There easily is much more money that goes through any one Vegas book than any one off shore book. While off shore books easily outnumber the books in Vegas, the percentage of money per book favors Vegas. Vegas also has huge casinos that can help them absorb a bad week at the sports books, while many off shore books can not do this. And people wonder why off shore books with good payment records all of a sudden start to slow pay, or start limiting a players action, or just cut players off. The answer is simple. They do not have the revenues that a book owned by Harrah's may have. If you look at off shre books, with the exception of BoDog, who always favors the dog, most of the books have very similar lines. You can find more differing lines in VEgas, though not nearly as many as last year, or the year bofore.

[man3645]

Very few BM's want positions? Are you kidding? I have worked for in this business since 89. In many huge offices in NYC before most went offshore or retired. I am talking 12-1500 clients at most of these shops. Maybe 30-40 sharps out of those(In the old days it was first come first serve, so you could have 1000 sharps and only one gets in) and in none of these offices did we ever lay off any action. On a sunday we would pick up the phone at 11 am and put are heads down and write till kickoff. Every game we had huge positions, and week in and week out we made money, for the 23 years I worked clerking and running shops. We did not have one losing season in any office.

Show me the math with my above statement how no bookmaker who wants to stay in business wants a position.


You think CRIS makes money just because they charge -110. They have huge positions on a lot of games. They do not decide which side they want, the clients decide what the position will be. How do you think Sacco got so rich, evening out his positions..........LOL


Put your head down and write................and you will make money......................every year

How would you determine the position by using the public? Would you create deceiving lines so that the public could jump on the opposite of your position, or just move lines in a manner on games in order to gain an advantage before the close of a line?

Books like CRIS books probably dont have to fool around with positions, they are handling so much money the 5% Vig is enough and if they kept taking positions and kept beating more of its clients, more clients would leave and they would make less on the Vig. I would assume the smaller the book, the more important it is to take positions.

[durito]

A lot of interesting stuff in here, but here are the important things to remember. While it is not always the case, basically the books are in business to make money, NOT to gamble, so in the vast majority of instances, they will do their best to balance out the money going on each team. The key word here being money. They could care less how many people are on a certain team. The money is what talks in Vegas.

As far as the LVSC is concerned, Public Perception does affect the lines, and this is how the wiseguys make all of their money. The wiseguys who can figure out the Public Perception and how many points it added/subracted from a line are the ones who make money in this business. Remember, the LVSC is basically in business to set lines that will get asn even amount of play on both sides. These lines do not necessairily reflect who SHOULD win the game, but rather who Joe Pub thinks will win the game, and by how much. If you have a good solid data base, you should have a big advantage, because in solid data bases like the one our group uses, we come out with lines that have nothing do go with Public Perception. That is how you make money in this business.

By the way Dominator, if Vegas casinos could guarantee a 10% profit, they would be very happy. All you said in your long rambling dissertation is exactly what we are talking about. Public Perception. It matter not HOW that perception starts. It only matters that it is there. NOw while it is true that most of the money wagered on a game comes down late, the successful cartels and syndicates also wager very early, on the "lead line", thus creating middle possibilities, and as anyone will tell you, a middle is the best way of achieveing the maximum return while risking the minimum amount of money.

What Vegas has to guard against, is a situation like what happened in yesterday's UCLA-Temple game. Temple gets a huge jump and is up 11 at the half. Those who took Temple at +150 are now in the perfect hedge situation. Jump on UCLA - the points in the second half for 125 and you are guaranteed a winner. Now 25 for every 225 wagered is not a huge win, but it is guaranteed money, and a damn site better than you bank will give you. If I can guarantee an 11% R.O.I. on every wager that I make, I will be very happy. Now if enough people do this, say bye-bye to your profits.

One othe thing to consider. The Vegas books do not have to make 10% on straight wagers. This is because they make so much on their sucker plays (Parlays, Teasers, Reverse wagers, If wagers, and Prop wagers) that they can afford to break even on the straight wagers and still show a nice profit. All of those wagers have huge built in percentages favoring the house. So there is a lot more thanjust a straight wager that determines a book's success or failure.

Also remember where you wager makes a huge difference. There easily is much more money that goes through any one Vegas book than any one off shore book. While off shore books easily outnumber the books in Vegas, the percentage of money per book favors Vegas. Vegas also has huge casinos that can help them absorb a bad week at the sports books, while many off shore books can not do this. And people wonder why off shore books with good payment records all of a sudden start to slow pay, or start limiting a players action, or just cut players off. The answer is simple. They do not have the revenues that a book owned by Harrah's may have. If you look at off shre books, with the exception of BoDog, who always favors the dog, most of the books have very similar lines. You can find more differing lines in VEgas, though not nearly as many as last year, or the year bofore.

Odds you've ever been to vegas:

Yes +200
No -300

[JELLYBEAN]

How would you determine the position by using the public? Would you create deceiving lines so that the public could jump on the opposite of your position, or just move lines in a manner on games in order to gain an advantage before the close of a line?

Books like CRIS books probably dont have to fool around with positions, they are handling so much money the 5% Vig is enough and if they kept taking positions and kept beating more of its clients, more clients would leave and they would make less on the Vig. I would assume the smaller the book, the more important it is to take positions.

CRIS has positions on every game for every major sport. Baseball season they may try to even it out if possible and make money daily that way. The smaller markets they try to even it all out where possible and make money with there huge spreads.

I am not just talking out of my ass, I have friends who work there and at many other books.


Books like CRIS use there huge wiseguy base to lessen positions as they know if they put out an off number on the screen it will be grabbed by someone. Grande does this all the time also.

If you think these books do not have "positions" your smoking crack

[man3645]

CRIS has positions on every game for every major sport. Baseball season they may try to even it out if possible and make money daily that way. The smaller markets they try to even it all out where possible and make money with there huge spreads.

I am not just talking out of my ass, I have friends who work there and at many other books.


Books like CRIS use there huge wiseguy base to lessen positions as they know if they put out an off number on the screen it will be grabbed by someone. Grande does this all the time also.

If you think these books do not have "positions" your smoking crack

You have to be the richest man in this forum.

[Formulawiz]

This may be purely coincidental, but I have taken Sagarins power rankings, the ones to the far right that factor in strength of schedule, & added the 3.09 for HF and 85-90% of the opening lines were right on or within .5 point. What I do is figure out the line by Sagarins power ratings on Sun morn for every game. Then I print the actual opening lines that are just a few hours old. That is the true line if it's within a point of the PR line. What the public bets it up or down to is where you can find value

Are you talking about pure points

[man3645]

So according to that, Jelly, you should be able to turn a profit following money relative to line movement???

[IrishTim]

Very few BM's want positions? Are you kidding? I have worked for in this business since 89. In many huge offices in NYC before most went offshore or retired. I am talking 12-1500 clients at most of these shops. Maybe 30-40 sharps out of those(In the old days it was first come first serve, so you could have 1000 sharps and only one gets in) and in none of these offices did we ever lay off any action. On a sunday we would pick up the phone at 11 am and put are heads down and write till kickoff. Every game we had huge positions, and week in and week out we made money, for the 23 years I worked clerking and running shops. We did not have one losing season in any office.

Show me the math with my above statement how no bookmaker who wants to stay in business wants a position.


You think CRIS makes money just because they charge -110. They have huge positions on a lot of games. They do not decide which side they want, the clients decide what the position will be. How do you think Sacco got so rich, evening out his positions..........LOL


Put your head down and write................and you will make money......................every year

To quote Justin in a post to me a few weeks ago: "very few bookmakers want positions. The ones that stay in business anyway."