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Early steam plays where the line originates - would it be successful?
Here's a question which has been stuck in my head for a few days...
If you go to where the lines originate (somewhere in Vegas, I guess). I mean, really the FIRST place where lines come out. Then you just look at the board, and follow the earliest occurring line movement... would you make money on the long run? If not, why? I mean, the first to hit a line enough to move it is most likely a sharp, right? So it should be +EV on the long run. Has someone tried it?
It seems like it would work...
But once you follow steam you already don't have the best line..
That's fairly obvious
But in most cases, the fair line differs by more than a point. So you may get a winner less on every 50 picks played, but should still be good enough, shouldn't it?
For something like this you are going to have to do your own donkey work.
If it works, nobody who does it is going to tell you it works.
In NCAAB, G-C (to my knowledge) tends to post lines first and you have a huge potential sample to back test with.
If you people have theories, test them out yourselves! Do you honestly expect someone to come in here saying "Yes, it's been working for years, don't know why everyone doesn't do it"?
I don't want to know how exactly to do it, I don't even plan on doing it. I just want to know if it's possible and if not, why.
It is possible, at low limits, but only if you have access to those very first numbers posted at G-C. By the time a number is posted by any offshore book the weak number and any value is long gone.Originally Posted by in play, run(s)
most of everything has been thoght of before, but sharing basic info and general ideas is a start, might give someone the inspiration to build on it ... test it, use it and keep it to themselves
he said it was the book that posts the first ncaab lines ...but I wouldnt think this system would have alot of value though, cuz u would need access to the very first unbet virgin lines, then the opening public lines after the sharps... then wait and see if it gets back close the virgin line?
Nobody that comes in the think tank anymore cares to do their own donkey work. This is why nobody with a clue post here anymore, why in the world would any profitable player want to come in here and hand out +EV information to a bunch of clowns who can't even tie there own shoes.
Bunch of lazy MF'ers begging other people to do their homework for them and teach them how to make money, or better yet how to cut into the profits of those who took the time to do their own work.
90% of the questions asked here are topics that have been gone over time and time again and yet people are too lazy to do a simple f'ing google search.
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Not at all... I said, wait until the very first line move you observe, then tail it. Because the line has already moved, you'll get half a point worse line maybe, but it should still generate profit on the long run.
To sharpcat... once again, I didn't ask anyone to give me instructions on how to make money. My question was for academic reasons only. I don't even handicap US sports as I'm from Europe, there aren't any virgin lines over here to exploit that.
Last edited by in play, run(s); 01-10-12 at 06:26 PM.
Also to Sharpcat...just asking FourLengths what G-C stands for...that's all..
Sorry, Gold Coast casino which AFAIK is generally the first place to post lines for NCAAB. I hope someone will correct me if that is wrong.
Gold Coast? In Vegas?
No.
BetOnline.
If that is the case, I stand corrected.
Really though, no Vegas outfit puts up a number before BOL?
They are first for all sports? What time are the overnights released?
Not for NCAAB.
Gold Coast isn't even the hub of that family and if they originated on anything it would take 4 managers around 25 minutes on the phone to get a limit high 2-figure bet down.
So who then releases the first line? Pinny, bookmaker, greek, or a book in Vegas?
I noticed BetOnline putting out weak ass NFL lines a full week before BM and Greek.
I thought you were referring to Glantz-Culver line, which I believe is line BOL clones for early openers?
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