1. 10-30-09 08:17 AM #1
    HedgeHog
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    BE % for correlated parlays?

    What is the break even percentage for correlated pars at 13/5 odds?

    Likewise, what is the BE % if your pars pay 14/5?


    I'm guessing pars need to be at least 30% correlated to break even at regular 13/5 odds. Anyone have actual stats on this?
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  2. 10-30-09 02:18 PM #2
    suicidekings
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    Breakevens

    13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
    14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

    Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?
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  3. 10-30-09 03:19 PM #3
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Breakevens

    13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
    14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

    Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?
    Yes. Also, the Under with the Large 'Dog--which I suspect has similar percentages. Thank you for responding.
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  4. 10-30-09 04:59 PM #4
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    Breakevens

    13/5: 38.5% overall win rate
    14/5: 35.7% overall win rate

    Are you trying to quantify how strong the correlation is between your bets (ie: Team A wins / Total goes over)?
    The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.
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  5. 10-30-09 05:17 PM #5
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.
    That is closer to the 30% level I was thinking. I've been betting all pars at 30% and better and doing okay.
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  6. 10-30-09 05:31 PM #6
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post

    The right answer is 27.7778% & 26.3158%.
    RickySteve: If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to those results?
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  7. 10-30-09 05:39 PM #7
    bleedblue
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    Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

    I think rickysteve and suicideking were answering the wrong question
    Last edited by bleedblue; 10-30-09 at 05:42 PM.
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  8. 10-30-09 05:45 PM #8
    The Bishop
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    RickySteve: If you don't mind me asking, how did you come to those results?
    1/3.6 and 1/3.8
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  9. 10-30-09 05:47 PM #9
    bleedblue
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    Suicideking,

    Breakeven for a parlay paying 13/5 is not 5/13 = .3846. You need to win 5 out of 18 to break even.

    5 wins paying 13/5 - 13 1 unit losses = 0
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  10. 10-30-09 05:59 PM #10
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by bleedblue View Post
    Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

    I think rickysteve and suicideking were answering the wrong question
    Yeah, I think RS was giving the winning % of all parlays breaking even at 13/5 and 14/5 odds. So my question is what correlation level gets you to these BE levels?

    For example, assume a game has a line of 15 and total of 45. Correlation is 33.33%. Is this enough of an edge to make + Ev parlays? (Fav/Over and Dog/Under).
    Last edited by HedgeHog; 10-30-09 at 06:12 PM.
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  11. 10-30-09 06:40 PM #11
    The Bishop
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    Most books, from what I know, don't let you parlay anything with a line/total ratio of 30% or 33.33% (depends on the book) or higher. Thus, based on that, I would assume that is the general breakeven percentage.

    Also, dog/unders hit higher than fav/overs.
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  12. 10-30-09 06:58 PM #12
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bishop View Post

    1/3.6 and 1/3.8
    Ha! My fault. I hope I did the math better than that while working out my bets for the day...
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  13. 10-31-09 06:38 AM #13
    HedgeHog
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bishop View Post
    Most books, from what I know, don't let you parlay anything with a line/total ratio of 30% or 33.33% (depends on the book) or higher. Thus, based on that, I would assume that is the general breakeven percentage.

    Also, dog/unders hit higher than fav/overs.



    This has been my experience as well.
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  14. 10-31-09 12:56 PM #14
    shantystar
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    suicidekings is quite right!!!
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  15. 10-31-09 02:21 PM #15
    HedgeHog
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    [quote=bleedblue;2473845]Looking at my NCAAf db, games with 30-39.9% correlation won at 27.66%, so breakeven is probably somewhere in that range.

    BB:

    If a game is in the next range, 40-49.9% correlation, what do you show for the parlay winning percentage then?
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  16. 11-01-09 07:31 PM #16
    bleedblue
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    I realized a small mistake with my original numbers, as I was counting pushes as losses, so I just removed them.

    40-49.99%
    Total games - 218
    Home-fav+over - 61 (.2798)
    Away-dog+under - 59 (.2706)

    Total games - 64
    Home-dog+under - 23 (.3594)
    Away-fav+over - 13 (.2031)

    30-39.99%
    Total games - 341
    Home-fav+over - 98 (.2874)
    Away-dog+under - 96 (.2815)

    Total games - 157
    Home-dog+under - 48 (.3057)
    Away-fav+over - 39 (.2484)
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  17. 11-02-09 06:30 AM #17
    HedgeHog
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    Thanks--very useful info. The Large Home Dog with the Under cashes nearly nearly one third of the time (71/221= 32.1%) in games that are 30-50% correlated! I need to be betting more on these when they are available.
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  18. 11-02-09 06:41 PM #18
    RickySteve
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    Welcome to 2005. You need to take a hard look at the underlying BE% of the sides.
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  19. 11-03-09 06:21 AM #19
    HedgeHog
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    I don't understand the 2005 reference, but I agree the % of the sides is very important. For example, if the dog/under pars are hitting 32%, the average side is winning 56.5% of the time. However, one factor could be hitting at 60% and the other at 53% and still produce 32% winning pars.
    Last edited by HedgeHog; 11-03-09 at 06:29 AM.
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