[Gradius]

I wanted to know if it is wise to factor overtime into NHL totals. In my model, I use first 60 minutes to determine totals, but NHL, compared to other major sports, has significantly more overtimes.

NHL games go to overtime about 24% of the time, and in overtime, there is going to be a guaranteed one goal score. Another thing about over time is that it is for the most part, a 50-50 proposition, even when you have a very good team vs. a very bad team (shootout is even closer to 50-50 than regular overtime). So if overtime is factored, would I then input: 1 Goal X (0.24) = 0.24, then add that to the totals for the first 60 minutes? I see that when comparing the 1st 60 minutes to the whole game, the sportsbook gives higher juice to the favorite in the first 60 minutes, and lowers the juice for the whole game. I'm assuming they at least factor overtime in when determining who will win.

Edit: Another thing about overtime is that the lower the totals, and the more evenly matched the teams, the higher probability of overtime, so overtime would probably have more weight in a supposed low score evenly matched game, compared to a high score uneven matched game.

[YouMama]

and if its a game, seperated by 1 goal... there is a chance for empty netters when the losing team pulls the keeper

[Gradius]

I've seen goalies get pulled when teams are up by 2 late in the game, it probably doesn't happen as often, but I don't know how often that is.

[Axis]

I've seen goalies get pulled when teams are up by 2 late in the game, it probably doesn't happen as often, but I don't know how often that is.

Unless you're an avid watch of the NHL, it happens more often than you would think...and generally around the 1:20-1:30 mark. Now, with a shortened season...it seems to be a little screwy on certain strategies.

I actually think this (pulling goalies) should have a bigger impact on totals than trying to factor in OT...

I don't have figures on this at all, but I would venture a guess that a goalie is pulled in more than 24% of games. How often is a goal scored? That's a whole new avenue...

[baseballfreak]

Vegas got smart with their lines this season. There has been a TON of game totals set at 5 where as in previous season's those games were 5.5 totals.

This allows the push for A LOT of match-ups that end in a 3-2 type game. Under 5.5 was money last season especially this time of year BUT these totals set at 5 aren't allowing us to cash.

IMO, the NHL this season is not as profitable as previous seasons and we can blame the shortened 48 game season for this.

[Microphone]

Ironically Buffalo pulled Ryan Miller tonight down 3-1. Final 4-1.

[baseballfreak]

Ironically Buffalo pulled Ryan Miller tonight down 3-1. Final 4-1.

If that game was earlier in the season, he wouldn't have been pulled. They are trying to make the playoffs, which was out of the question weeks ago