1. 01-22-13 08:40 AM #1
    339955
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    absolutely urgent question for RSIGLEY

    rsigley i need help i am losing a lot of money as squares crush the nfl they are taking all my money. im trying to work with some bayes theorem here and am getting started. there is naive bayes, and also like the james-stein estimator in that paper you linked to. can you explain where you implement your bayes analysis please and give some elaboration on how to proceed in this please thank you.
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  2. 01-22-13 11:56 AM #2
    339955
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    PLEASE HELP RSIGLEY. I AM LOOKING THROUGH ARCHIVES OF YOUR POSTS AND SEE YOU LIKE TO SHARE REALLY GOOD INFORMATION PLEASE HELP

    "i develop mine differently using bayes theorem with assumptions that are built in from analyzing the complete game box score/pbp data"

    i can't understand how to do this without your explanation
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  3. 01-22-13 12:30 PM #3
    339955
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    RSIGLEY you are my saviour help me implement bayes with my databases!!
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  4. 01-22-13 01:47 PM #4
    mcduggly
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    I'd give up.
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  5. 01-22-13 04:30 PM #5
    Mens et Manus
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    I used to be a local and was in a similar situation. I was not big time, just a guy in the office taking bets. After the squares pounded me for a while I just increased the juice. I did lose a lot of customers, but those customers were the squares and the sharps.

    The degens will still gamble, even at -120, and they are the bad cappers. Even thou I lost 50% of my customers after 3 months I was well out of red and into black. I started getting heat so I stopped but this to me was an excellent way to turn it around.

    GL
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  6. 01-22-13 06:03 PM #6
    mcduggly
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mens et Manus View Post
    I used to be a local and was in a similar situation. I was not big time, just a guy in the office taking bets. After the squares pounded me for a while I just increased the juice. I did lose a lot of customers, but those customers were the squares and the sharps.

    The degens will still gamble, even at -120, and they are the bad cappers. Even thou I lost 50% of my customers after 3 months I was well out of red and into black. I started getting heat so I stopped but this to me was an excellent way to turn it around.

    GL
    I would do the exact same thing. You could put the lines at -140 and they will still try to collect bills from under the couch to get money to bet with through you.
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