[Beetlejuice]

Lately, I've been trying to use a dutching calculator to spread around my money on four horses or so in a given race. I've tried multiple calculators. However, when one of the horses WINS, I actually end up losing money, and I'm at a loss for how this actually happens.

Like for instance the other day:

Oct 23, 2012
		Bet #				Take	Return	Net
	Won	1	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 3.80 Straight Win PN: 3	3.80	7.41	3.61
	Lost	2	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 8.44 Straight Win PN: 2	8.44	0.00	-8.44
	Lost	3	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 2.76 Straight Win PN: 4	2.76	0.00	-2.76
					Ticket total	15.00	7.41	-7.59

As you can see, I put money according to the dutching calculator with the odds, and actually LOST money when one of the horses won. I understand there are pools/purses, track take, and Prices, but I'm at a loss to understand actual win odds. There are calcs that help with that, but actually require you to designate the amount you are going to wager beforehand, which actually is difficult to do when you are dutching. I see a lot of value in dutching horse races, but I really need help and cannot figure this out. Any advice is appreciated, thanks.

[mrpooh]

did the odds move after you placed the bet? that could explain it

[Beetlejuice]

I did all these bets inside of a minute, so I doubt they moved at that time. However, do the odds CHANGE even after you've locked in the wager?

[Duff85]

I did all these bets inside of a minute, so I doubt they moved at that time. However, do the odds CHANGE even after you've locked in the wager?

If you are betting into parimutuel pools and not taking fixed odds - which if you're betting US Horses I am guessing you are - then you never are able to lock in a price. Your price will be decided at the start of the race when the money is totaled on each horse.

In a two horse race 5 minutes before the jump:
Horse #1 has $10 on it
Horse #2 has $20 on it

The track takes 10% (or whatever their take is)

At that time Horse #1 would be paying +170, Horse #2 would be paying around -285.

Now if a heap of wagers came in the last 5 minutes for horse #1 and it closed at:
Horse #1 $25
Horse #2 $25

Both horses would pay -125 regardless of if you had bet Horse #1 when it was +170.

This is a simplistic example, but should give you the idea.

[Duff85]

I'm sure there are ways to beat parimutuel wagering - having a good knowledge of the horses and the pools that you are betting into is probably an excellent start. However the only way I have knowledge to beat parimutuel horse racing is to use pool manipulation to set up favourable pricing etc. Not even sure that is possible in the US, certainly possible here in Australia and some groups do it really well. Otherwise fixed odds and exchange betting is the way to go.

[hutennis]

Your mistake is obvious.

You bet on every horse the amount that is equal to that horse's odds of winning.
That's not how it is done.

Your stakes for each horse should be proportionally different.

On 3.8 horse you should have put $5.31
On 8.44 - $2.39
And on 2.76 -$7.31.

Your total stake would ve been $15.00
Return if any selection wins - 20.16 for the profit of 5.16.

I have my own spreadsheet for this type of stuff that covers many different scenarios I'm interested in
but for what you want this is perfect.

Hope this helps.

P.S.

Just read an above posts.
If you are not getting fixed odds, then all bets, as far as dutching, are off, obv.

[Beetlejuice]

Thanks fellas for clearing this up. So, I should probably end up just betting on fixed odds races. I'll try to see if my sportsbook is offering british/australian races.

[Beetlejuice]

Yeah, I'm using sportsbook.com. Doesn't look like there's any fixed odds or british racing, just american. That sucks. So much for dutching these horses.

[Beetlejuice]

Hmm here's something interesting:

Question: Are your horse-racing odds Parimutuel?

Answer We do not offer Pari-Mutuel betting. Bets made through our racing software are not entered into the track pools. We book all bets ourselves. Straight wager (win, place, show) payoffs are based on a $2 minimum bet which is standard at tracks. Prices displayed in our racebook are morning lines (M/L). Payouts are based on the actual track payout. The morning lines are for informational purposes only and not used to calculate the payout.

[cyberbabble]

"Betting Cheap Claimers" by Stanford Wong
He discusses races where a low odds favorite can be eliminated. This provides a good dutching situation. I have never tried it and just skimmed the book. Might be interesting for anyone that wants to try dutching horse races.

[mtneer1212]

Your mistake is betting into a pool as small as Western Fair. Anyone move a horse from 8-1 to 9-5 with a $100 bet there........ and it is impossible to dutch that place with that kind of swing.

[Duff85]

They are saying they don't offer Pari-Mutuel betting but technically they are. While they aren't putting the money into the pool, they are for all intents and purposes still paying out on the Pari-Mutuel pool of the host track. Meaning that you can't lock in your odds. Look around for fixed odds racing or into Stanford Wong's book which i'm sure will provide at least a +ev strategy for betting claiming races.

[Duff85]

Your mistake is betting into a pool as small as Western Fair. Anyone move a horse from 8-1 to 9-5 with a $100 bet there........ and it is impossible to dutch that place with that kind of swing.

His bets aren't going to effect the pool per se. But you can guarantee if he fired off a huge bet and Sportsbook had enough time (I believe some of the Australian books can get the money into the pool within seconds of jump - not sure Sportsbook would be as sophisticated because they aren't taking horse action as their primary income) would definitely lay it off into the pool to reduce any potential payout that he was going to get.

If you can find a book that will take a big enough bet in the closing seconds of the race you can manipulate the shit out of that sportsbook on small racing. All you need is the ability to back into the official track pool and the ability to place big enough wagers with your (hopefully multiple) off-shore sportsbooks. Races that are providing little interest, with only one or two quality runners and have a small number in the field are perfect targets.

A minute before jump (seconds before close is even better) you back your preferred runner with all of the off-shore sportsbooks and you make a big enough splash with your non preferred runners in the official pool - thus driving the price of your actual bet through the roof and making up for the amount that you would lose in the on-track pool, while enhancing your odds to a degree that it would pay over the true odds. Of course if this was easy to do a lot of people would be doing it, but its possible.

Here's a good article on fairly blatant manipulation situation on Greyhounds in Australia.

Unfortunately it works best where you are able to get big limits on small time races with limited quality - Australian dogs is rife with it, but guys like Zeljko Ranogajec have made a fortune manipulating massive pools with large amounts of money and rebates for their action in the pools, while betting their selection through bookmakers who pay out using the track or pool payout.

I prefer betting fixed odds sports betting, but one can definitely make money in the parimutuel betting as well with enough time, knowledge and effort.

[Dark Horse]

Why would you bet every single one of those three horses to win? That guarantees you of two losses. If you add horses to place and show you can be much more flexible, and spread bets around as if on a roulette table. You do want to place those bets, and have a quick method of calculation nearby, very shortly before the race goes off.

[mtneer1212]

His bets aren't going to effect the pool per se. But you can guarantee if he fired off a huge bet and Sportsbook had enough time (I believe some of the Australian books can get the money into the pool within seconds of jump - not sure Sportsbook would be as sophisticated because they aren't taking horse action as their primary income) would definitely lay it off into the pool to reduce any potential payout that he was going to get.

If you can find a book that will take a big enough bet in the closing seconds of the race you can manipulate the shit out of that sportsbook on small racing. All you need is the ability to back into the official track pool and the ability to place big enough wagers with your (hopefully multiple) off-shore sportsbooks. Races that are providing little interest, with only one or two quality runners and have a small number in the field are perfect targets.

A minute before jump (seconds before close is even better) you back your preferred runner with all of the off-shore sportsbooks and you make a big enough splash with your non preferred runners in the official pool - thus driving the price of your actual bet through the roof and making up for the amount that you would lose in the on-track pool, while enhancing your odds to a degree that it would pay over the true odds. Of course if this was easy to do a lot of people would be doing it, but its possible.

Here's a good article on fairly blatant manipulation situation on Greyhounds in Australia.

Unfortunately it works best where you are able to get big limits on small time races with limited quality - Australian dogs is rife with it, but guys like Zeljko Ranogajec have made a fortune manipulating massive pools with large amounts of money and rebates for their action in the pools, while betting their selection through bookmakers who pay out using the track or pool payout.

I prefer betting fixed odds sports betting, but one can definitely make money in the parimutuel betting as well with enough time, knowledge and effort.

I'm not worried about his bet affecting the odds, I'm worried about someone else's, and he can't properly work with the right odds because of a moderate late punch.

[Duff85]

I'm not worried about his bet affecting the odds, I'm worried about someone else's, and he can't properly work with the right odds because of a moderate late punch.

Good point.

[indio]

Lately, I've been trying to use a dutching calculator to spread around my money on four horses or so in a given race. I've tried multiple calculators. However, when one of the horses WINS, I actually end up losing money, and I'm at a loss for how this actually happens.

Like for instance the other day:

Oct 23, 2012
		Bet #				Take	Return	Net
	Won	1	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 3.80 Straight Win PN: 3	3.80	7.41	3.61
	Lost	2	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 8.44 Straight Win PN: 2	8.44	0.00	-8.44
	Lost	3	3:52:04 PM	Western Fair Raceway	Race #12 USD 2.76 Straight Win PN: 4	2.76	0.00	-2.76
					Ticket total	15.00	7.41	-7.59

As you can see, I put money according to the dutching calculator with the odds, and actually LOST money when one of the horses won. I understand there are pools/purses, track take, and Prices, but I'm at a loss to understand actual win odds. There are calcs that help with that, but actually require you to designate the amount you are going to wager beforehand, which actually is difficult to do when you are dutching. I see a lot of value in dutching horse races, but I really need help and cannot figure this out. Any advice is appreciated, thanks.

Western Fair has a horrid 21.4% take out hold in the win pool, and with breakage, that will be close to 25% at times. This fact alone means that most of the time, betting multiple entries is not only a waste of time and money, but a huge negative expectation for you (as is most horse racing). Add to the fact that the pools are very small (making odds almost meaningless) and they cheat regularly up there, and it means you're probably better off doing something else. If you want to play Western Fair, they do have a reasonable take out rate of 15% on Pick 4 wagers, which means with a usual 4,000+ combinations available, you might even find a little value if you can beat a few chalks in the ticket.

If you want to know how to figure fixed odds "dutching" by hand, it's quite simple. First, convert the odds to percentages. Example: 7-1 is 12.5% (1/8) 9/2 is 18.18% (2/11) 12-1 is 7.69% (1/13). Lets say you want to "dutch" these three prices. Add the %'s to find your combined price (in this case, 38.37%). This means that this entry is +160. How much you bet on each entry is simple, just divide it's percentage into the total combined percentage, and that will be how much of a % you will allocate of your stake.

Example, lets say we want to bet $100 at +160 on the three horses at 7-1, 9-2, and 12-1. The 7-1 horse is 12.5 of 38.37% which is 32.58%, The 9-2 horse is 18.18 of 38.37% which is 47.38% and the 12-1 shot is 7.69 of 38.37% which is 20.04%.

Since our total bet will be $100, this one will be easy.

$32.58 at 7-1 to win 228.06 = 260.64 retuned
$47.38 at 9-2 to win 213.21 = 260.60 returned
$20.04 at 12-1 to win 240.48 = 260.52 returned

$100 total to get back $260 = $160 profit or +160.

[jetsjets1028]

dog racing is easier

[matekus]

Beetlejuice,

This post vendire-ludorum.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/overlay-markets-and-multiple-selections.html) on using Kelly for multiple selections in horse racing may be of interest...

matekus

[Beetlejuice]

Thanks fellas, I'm reading and reviewing everything here.

[arwar]

the track take (even tho this isn't the track - assume the action at book mirrors track action) is 20-25%. makes it tough to beat.

common misconception about betting horse races: most people think that if you bet every horse in a race that you are guaranteed to lose (like if you bet on both teams in a football game). if 99-1 longshot wins you will make money.... so the key is to figure out which race will have a longshot winner.

interesting bar bet. bet $1k you can pick winner of every race on card. go to track and bet $2 on every horse in every race. present winning tickets and collect the $1k - then cash the tickets.

[Art Vandeleigh]

You can get fixed odds on U.S. racing at betmaker.ag (part of Bookmaker, I think), probably with much less than 15% take as it gets close to post time.

[Snowball]

if you want accurate post odds including the changes in real time
MTP's then you'll have to use a specialized horse track book.
Those are the only way to gauge where the money is flowing
near race time which is the only time that matters.