[BeardedTaco]

2nd half Pinny closers for MNF got me thinking:

10/01/12 10:07:22pm 231 Chicago / Dallas 20½ Over -113 Under +102 10/01/12 10:07:07pm 231 Chicago / Dallas 21 Over +103 Under -114

what is the best way to find the value of each half point for both NFL and CFB?

[flocko76]

if that's accurate, you could play under 20 1/2 and over 21 (if they let you play both sides) at +ev

[durito]

what is the best way to find the value of each half point for both NFL and CFB?

The easy way is to create a push chart.

if that's accurate, you could play under 20 1/2 and over 21 (if they let you play both sides) at +ev

There are no +ev lines there. You would need 21 to hit around 2% of the time to be profitable. I have it at ~4.6% and pinny's lines suggest even higher.

[Monte]

21 is a big number for 1 half, you don't need much research to figure that out?
Like 24...17...20...you also have to consider the chance of going for 2 points after a TD, so the 1st half score matters.
If you think that 5c for the 21 are +ev you should stop placing bets immediately, and that's no offense but the sad truth.

[flocko76]

There are no +ev lines there. You would need 21 to hit around 2% of the time to be profitable. I have it at ~4.6% and pinny's lines suggest even higher.

maybe i should stop gambling than. the way I see it, If i put $100 on under 20 1/2 @+102 and $100 on over 21 @+103, it either hits under 20 1/2 (win $3), hits 21 even (lose one push the other) or goes over21, (win $2).
so what you're saying is i would want 21 to hit exactly only 2% or less to be profitable, and you have it at 4.6% (which is higher and thus unprofitable?)

[BeardedTaco]

The easy way is to create a push chart.

Yeah I kinda figured that. Was just wondering if there was some info out there discussing this. I obviously know the key 2nd half numbers but to know the exact value of each one could be valuable when line shopping in a short time frame.

[Monte]

maybe i should stop gambling than. the way I see it, If i put $100 on under 20 1/2 @+102 and $100 on over 21 @+103, it either hits under 20 1/2 (win $3), hits 21 even (lose one push the other) or goes over21, (win $2).
so what you're saying is i would want 21 to hit exactly only 2% or less to be profitable, and you have it at 4.6% (which is higher and thus unprofitable?)

Come on...it doesn't get easier than this, 21 = 3 TDs = why the hell would you risk such a silly reversed middle for just 5 cents.
If you can't figure this out by simple logic alone, without knowing any push numbers, that's just sad.

[Justin7]

Another thing to look at when making your h2 push chart is how much a team is up. 3,7,10, 14, you see pretty typical distributions. If a team is up 1/2/6/8, a 2-pt conversion attempt is likely. The distributions change.

[Arilou]

You also have to keep in mind whether a score can tie the game and result in OT, or if the score is a likely result of OT.