[Bluehorseshoe]

Trying to figure out a what the value is of a 1/2 point line move with an adjustment in the moneyline.


For example....the total on a game goes from 6 over -140 to 6 1/2 under -116. What does that move equate to dollar wise?

[yisman]

not all half goals were created equal

[Pancho sanza]

Trying to figure out a what the value is of a 1/2 point line move with an adjustment in the moneyline.


For example....the total on a game goes from 6 over -140 to 6 1/2 under -116. What does that move equate to dollar wise?

Going from 6.5 to 6 is worth about 28 cents in hockey.

[smitch124]

half point calculator...

[donjuan]

Be careful using push percentages in hockey. The push percentage on 5 (or 6) where the line is o5.5 +120/u5.5 -130 is not the same as it is for o5.5 -130/u5.5 +120.

[Neil Nollidge]

Trying to figure out a what the value is of a 1/2 point line move with an adjustment in the moneyline.


For example....the total on a game goes from 6 over -140 to 6 1/2 under -116. What does that move equate to dollar wise?

Firstly, I am fairly new to sports betting - I have been preoccupied with racing. My understanding of the parameters of the example: The bookmaker is offering -140 about the fav - 6, ( a push results in 100% refund ), and -116 about the dog + 6.5. As Donjuan implied, the problem comes down to the probability of the push. Ideally, this figure is part of the output of a handicapping. It looks to me like the bookmaker is not revealing his version of this probability with the above info. His version of the expected high/low-scoringness of the match is not revealed. Note that his over-all edge is not revealed. Anyway, your version is the one that counts. If you have a pair of probabilities relating to 2 different half-pointed lines, ( of course, an outright win probability would effectively constitute half of such a pair ), it is fairly easy to calculate probabilities of any real relative score-line, using the basic mechanics of the tip strength concept that I posted recently - ( let me know if you want me to elaborate. )