Originally Posted by
Dylan
To answer your first question, yes I would only place money on the game with a 12.5 point advantage.
I have one spreadsheet for each sport where I calculate the winner and margin of victory based off stats.
On "if you are way off the market's prediction (the spread), it would tend to indicate that something is wrong."...
There have been times I've been surprised at the calculation. A really good example of that occurred last year when the Miami Heat faced the Cavaliers in Cleveland. Miami were the favourites, 13.5, yet my model suggested a massive Cleveland win, 75 points. I took the moneyline on the Cav's. The Cav's didn't win by 75, but by 12.
There have been other times too, where situations like that burned me, but overall when my predicted score is way off the spread I'm 55-48. (Not necessarily the games I bet on.)
"Are you keeping a record of all the games that you are using this method to calculate or only the ones that you end up wagering on?"
Yes, I record every game and not just the games I bet on. NCAA Basketball for example, overall I'm 3150-2941.
Hopefully that makes sense. Let me know if you have further questions.