[hajune]

Loyola Mary is a 30 point 30 1/2 dog tonight against St Mary's.
All 30 point dogs have covered this year. St Mary's is not good with the big numbers.

[Peep]

Agree on 30 pt doggies.

[durito]

I have 30+ pt underdogs at 3-5 ATS this year (ncaab)

[curious]

I have 30+ pt underdogs at 3-5 ATS this year (ncaab)

I was thinking the same thing. 30 point dogs are not 100% this year.

[rm18]

Wager has been accepted!
this is the play tonight boys

Ticket Number: 28102524


Wager type : Straight Bet

Sport : Reduced Basketball (Reduced Juice - Internet Only)
Selection : Saint Mary's CA 1/15/2009 9:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line -29000 for Game
Amount : Risking 1,160.00 To Win 4.00 USD

[Bullajami]

Money Line -29000 for Game
Amount : Risking 1,160.00 To Win 4.00 USD

Nicely played.

[LT Profits]

30+ points dogs are 3-5 this season and just 34-35-1 since 2000.

[Slim]

1160 dollars to win a fukkin happy meal? Are you mad?

[Peep]

Humm.....

I have 30 plus dogs at 31-16-2 against since 1996.

H Team Date HL W/L Spd
Cincinnati 23/11/1996 -32 L
Washington 30/11/1996 -31 L
IowaState 21/12/1996 -33 L
Utah 23/12/1996 -30 L
California 28/12/1996 -30 L
Cincinnati 30/12/1996 -30 L
Kentucky 07/01/1997 -32 L
Kentucky 09/01/1997 -33 L
Kentucky 06/02/1997 -38 L
Utah 06/02/1997 -30 W
Kansas 13/03/1997 -35 L
Kentucky 13/03/1997 -30 W
Kansas 17/11/1997 -31 L
Pacific (CA) 22/11/1997 -34 P
Illinois 02/12/1997 -30 L
Purdue 12/12/1997 -32 L
Kentucky 23/12/1997 -33 L
Arkansas 30/12/1998 -34 L
Indiana 10/12/1999 -31 W
NC State 28/12/1999 -31 L
Indiana 28/12/1999 -30 W
Tulsa 14/02/2000 -30.5 W
Duke 17/03/2000 -33 L
Michigan St 24/11/2000 -36.5 L
No Carolina 17/12/2000 -31 L
Duke 04/02/2001 -31.5 W
Gonzaga 11/02/2001 -32 L
Stanford 24/02/2001 -30 L
NC State 14/11/2001 -31 W
Duke 25/11/2001 -46 L
Kentucky 05/12/2001 -33.5 W
Florida 22/12/2001 -35 L
Xavier 18/11/2002 -31 W
Oregon 24/11/2002 -40 W
Georgia Tech 06/12/2003 -36 W
Vanderbilt 10/12/2003 -31.5 L
Colorado 19/12/2003 -33.5 L
Stanford 28/12/2003 -34 W
Texas 10/01/2004 -30.5 L
Louisville 17/01/2004 -30.5 L
Gonzaga 26/02/2004 -33 L
Texas 15/11/2005 -33 P
UCLA 03/12/2006 -32.5 L
Maryland 04/01/2007 -30 W
No Carolina 30/12/2004 -32 W
Georgia Tech 15/12/2004 -32 L
Iowa 03/12/2004 -30 W
Syracuse 01/12/2004 -32 L
Duke 20/11/2004 -30.5 W

The "W" is from a Home Favorite point of view.

[B1GER1C828]

hahahah im soooo rooting for st marys 2 lose just cuz of that idiotic bet

[curious]

30+ points dogs are 3-5 this season and just 34-35-1 since 2000.

Perhaps the moneyline is the play with these 30+ point dogs.

What does it look like on the moneyline?

[andywend]

Im not sure whats worse:

Actually betting $1,160 to win $4.00 or boasting about it in this forum.

Anyone who would make a bet like that deserves to lose.

[durito]

Im not sure whats worse:

Actually betting $1,160 to win $4.00 or boasting about it in this forum.

Anyone who would make a bet like that deserves to lose.

Care to explain why you think this particular bet is a bad wager?

What do you have as the fair price for this game?

[rm18]

Im not sure whats worse:

Actually betting $1,160 to win $4.00 or boasting about it in this forum.

Anyone who would make a bet like that deserves to lose.

You can get 170/1 odds on LMU, so my bet is terrible but you layed off the dog ML?

[andywend]

rm18, apologies for my "deserves to lose" comment as you didn't do anything to warrant it.

Do you routinely make bets like that?

There's nothing particularly wrong with your bet but the risk/reward certainly isn't very appealing (at least to me).

[rm18]

I guess maybe about one of those a week at 5 dimes, I took the Chargers +36.5 against the Broncos, and Cardinals +29.5 for the 2nd half against Carolina.

[Munson15]

So which stat is correct on 30< dogs in CBB?

[LT Profits]

I found one game I had going the wrong way, so dogs of 30+ are actually 33-36-1 ATS.

Date       	Team      	Line	Opponent	Score	Opp	W	L	P
11/14/2000	Princeton 	32	Duke       	50	87	0	1	0
11/24/2000	Cornell    	36	Michigan State	56	89	1	0	0
12/2/2000	St Marys CA	38	Arizona    	37	94	0	1	0
12/17/2000	Buffalo    	30.5	North Carolina	74	95	1	0	0
12/23/2000	American 	30.5	Florida     	33	76	0	1	0
2/4/2001 	Florida State	31.5	Duke       	58	100	0	1	0
2/11/2001	St Marys CA	32	Gonzaga  	64	90	1	0	0
3/15/2001	Monmouth	34.5	Duke       	52	95	0	1	0
11/24/2001	North Texas	30	Oklahoma State	58	77	1	0	0
11/25/2001	Portland  	45.5	Duke       	62	104	1	0	0
11/29/2001	Cornell    	30.5	Syracuse 	58	76	1	0	0
12/5/2001	V.M.I.     	31	Kentucky 	57	99	0	1	0
12/22/2001	New Orleans	34	Florida     	60	76	1	0	0
3/14/2002	Winthrop 	34	Duke       	37	84	0	1	0
11/18/2002	St Peters 	31	Xavier     	48	87	0	1	0
11/22/2002	Nicholls State	34	Louisiana State	24	68	0	1	0
11/27/2002	No. Arizona	34	Arizona    	66	101	0	1	0
12/28/2002	E. Kentucky	32	Xavier     	60	84	1	0	0
12/30/2002	Tennessee State	30.5	Kentucky 	87	115	1	0	0
12/6/2003	Tennessee State	33	Georgia Tech	43	94	0	1	0
12/10/2003	Tennessee State	31	Vanderbilt	64	85	1	0	0
12/19/2003	Tennessee State	33	Colorado  	44	71	1	0	0
12/28/2003	Harvard   	33.5	Stanford  	59	100	0	1	0
12/30/2003	Elon        	32.5	Cincinnati	63	102	0	1	0
1/17/2004	Tulane    	30	Louisville  	58	79	1	0	0
2/26/2004	San Diego	32.5	Gonzaga  	78	97	1	0	0
3/18/2004	Alabama State	34	Duke       	61	96	0	1	0
11/20/2004	Tenn.-Martin	31	Duke       	46	88	0	1	0
11/27/2004	Loyola Maryland	33.5	Pittsburgh	57	93	0	1	0
12/1/2004	St Bonaventure	31.5	Syracuse 	67	91	1	0	0
12/12/2004	Loyola Chicago	30	North Carolina	60	109	0	1	0
12/15/2004	James Madison	32	Georgia Tech	47	72	1	0	0
12/22/2004	William & Mary	31	Kentucky 	47	92	0	1	0
12/28/2004	UNC Wilmington	31	North Carolina	75	96	1	0	0
12/30/2004	Cleveland State	32	North Carolina	64	107	0	1	0
11/13/2005	Morgan State	35	Washington	51	118	0	1	0
11/14/2005	Boston U.	34	Duke       	47	64	1	0	0
11/19/2005	Citadel    	31	N.C. State	59	91	0	1	0
12/28/2005	SE Mo. State	31.5	Illinois     	64	89	1	0	0
11/10/2006	North Florida	30	St Johns  	53	74	1	0	0
11/14/2006	Sacred Heart	34	North Carolina	81	103	1	0	0
12/3/2006	UC Riverside	32.5	UCLA      	38	61	1	0	0
12/19/2006	Florida Atl.	34	North Carolina	52	105	0	1	0
12/31/2006	San Jose State	30	Duke       	51	70	1	0	0
1/4/2007 	Iona       	30	Maryland 	57	88	0	1	0
11/11/2007	North Florida	32.5	Maryland 	50	79	1	0	0
11/18/2007	Iona       	34	North Carolina	72	107	0	1	0
11/24/2007	Miss Valley St.	32	Washington St.	26	71	0	1	0
11/25/2007	E. Kentucky	31	Duke       	43	78	0	1	0
11/27/2007	Sacramento St.	30	Stanford  	58	84	1	0	0
11/28/2007	Florida Atl.	33	Kansas    	49	87	0	1	0
12/11/2007	Sacramento St.	31	Oregon    	66	93	1	0	0
12/15/2007	Idaho State	32	UCLA      	49	89	0	1	0
12/15/2007	Sacramento St.	33	Marquette	51	82	1	0	0
12/20/2007	Citadel    	33.5	Washington St.	45	67	1	0	0
12/28/2007	Howard   	32	St Marys CA	48	97	0	1	0
12/29/2007	UC-Davis 	34	UCLA      	48	76	1	0	0
12/29/2007	Yale        	33	Kansas    	53	86	0	0	1
1/8/2008 	Loyola Maryland	32.5	Kansas    	60	90	1	0	0
2/6/2008 	S.M.U.    	31	Memphis  	48	77	1	0	0
2/11/2008	Loyola Marym't	30.5	Gonzaga  	50	83	0	1	0
3/20/2008	Miss Valley St.	31.5	UCLA      	29	70	0	1	0
11/15/2008	Pennsylvania	32.5	North Carolina	71	86	1	0	0
11/16/2008	Idaho      	30	Michigan State	62	100	0	1	0
11/17/2008	Miss Valley St.	31.5	Oklahoma 	53	94	0	1	0
11/22/2008	Morehead State	30	Louisville  	41	79	0	1	0
12/17/2008	Loyola Marym't	33	UCLA      	44	75	1	0	0
12/23/2008	Florida Int'l	30	Georgetown	38	76	0	1	0
12/28/2008	Rutgers   	32	North Carolina	75	97	1	0	0
12/31/2008	Loyola Maryland	32	Duke       	51	92	0	1	0
					                      TOTAL   	33	36	1

[y2kls1a4]

1160 dollars to win a fukkin happy meal? Are you mad?

To win a happy meal.

[LT Profits]

perhaps the moneyline is the play with these 30+ point dogs.

What does it look like on the moneyline?

70-0.

[Peep]

First, thanks to LT and others for getting me to check my results.

TURNS OUT I HAD A FILTER ON of down >=10 and <=20 and the half when I went and got my list.

My apologies.

I actually do have figures more in keeping with yours. I have 107 college basketball games in total of -30 or more lines, and the home team covers 50, loses 54 and pushes 3.

So this is no gold mine.

As to Durito's comment of "why isn't it a good bet", I have no evidence it is not. Not one of the 107 dogs I have on file won the game.

[Peep]

Same lol.

[curious]

rm18, apologies for my "deserves to lose" comment as you didn't do anything to warrant it.

Do you routinely make bets like that?

There's nothing particularly wrong with your bet but the risk/reward certainly isn't very appealing (at least to me).

That is because you have no way of calculating a fair value, so you assume that laying big odds has to be "a bad risk". If you cannot calculate fair value then you cannot determine if the risk/reward of any line is appealing or not.

When someone lays big odds it means they see value in the line. They don't "deserve" to lose that bet any more than you "deserve" to lose the +30 line someone else took at -110.

I'm not commenting on this to talk trash to you. I post over 20 picks every day in NBA, NCAAB, and NHL and I routinely take big favs on the money line and I get comments like this all the time and it just irks me a little.

<end rant>

[reno cool]

If the favorite wins 100% of the time you're dealing with a .4% edge. Any 100 game database means shit going back ten years to establish this thing as a play even if the favs went 100-0. So there's no chance that it's much of a play. There is a good chance that it's a very bad play.

[durito]

If the favorite wins 100% of the time you're dealing with a .4% edge. Any 100 game database means shit going back ten years to establish this thing as a play even if the favs went 100-0. So there's no chance that it's much of a play. There is a good chance that it's a very bad play.

There are other ways of determining fair value other than looking at the frequency of straight up wins of past 30pt+ favorites.

[Peep]

Pinnacle gave me 250-1 ML earlier this year when Loyola Maryland was at North Carolina.

I bet it $10.

[unit1884]

it only takes 1 fluke event, some ejections, major injuries, to screw you

[durito]

it only takes 1 fluke event, some ejections, major injuries, to screw you

as it does in any game. so what.

[reno cool]

There are other ways of determining fair value other than looking at the frequency of straight up wins of past 30pt+ favorites.

I'm sure there is. But good luck establishing value within 1/2% to any degree of certainty on this.

[bigugly]

Yes, but this screw would particularly suck.

Given the bankroll the average person on this site has, this kind of a wager is probably not a good idea. Then again, what do I know?

[curious]

Yes, but this screw would particularly suck.

Given the bankroll the average person on this site has, this kind of a wager is probably not a good idea. Then again, what do I know?

I am wondering how you know what size bankroll people have.

[durito]

Yes, but this screw would particularly suck.

Given the bankroll the average person on this site has, this kind of a wager is probably not a good idea. Then again, what do I know?

the size of the bankroll is irrelevant

[bigugly]

I am wondering how you know what size bankroll people have.

Well you could just use common sense and realize the average person here is young and immature. Probably a virgin, will never own a sports car. Try a 1990 Civic.

Otherwise if you do a search you will find a poll about this.

[bigugly]

the size of the bankroll is irrelevant

I think the bankroll is very relevant if you are betting all or most of it to win 4 bucks. Simply not worth knocking yourself out of the game if you're trying to build the bankroll.

So I agree. Size of bankroll may be irrelevant, but percent of bankroll isn't.
...which is what I was going for.

[donjuan]

I think the bankroll is very relevant if you are betting all or most of it to win 4 bucks. Simply not worth knocking yourself out of the game if you're trying to build the bankroll.

So I agree. Size of bankroll may be irrelevant, but percent of bankroll isn't.
...which is what I was going for.

Welcome to Kelly.