Originally Posted by
losturmarbles
i assume youre making reference to using stale lines in a handicapping contest?
i guess the advantage is that it levels the playing field. its a disadvantage to those who can project the market.
just because a line contest line is team A -6 doesnt mean the team A has a 50/50 chance of covering. and most of the time if the line goes to team A -7, then team A -6 is most likely >50%. but in real life, your chance at getting team A -6 is most likely gone. but if you were a good handicapper then you already took team A, at -5.5.
think of it as a market. prices are always changing based on buying and selling. lets say we were going to have a contest of who could have the biggest total gain in the stock market for a day. we have a list of stocks with their 10 am price to choose from. your picks must be in by 1pm. since everyone is choosing from the same list then its fair right? at 4pm the person with the biggest gain is the winner. what would that really prove?
it all depends what kind of contest you are trying to have, a picking winners contest or one more close to reality where getting the best line and best price is rewarded. its like tonight between flor and okla. contest line is flor - 5.5. so do you want to have a contest of who can pick the winning side with a spread of 5.5 bc in reality if you like flor you should have them at -3, or if you like okla you should be waiting to see if the line continues to move more in your favor. picking the winner between flor/okla -+5.5 proves nothing more than who can pick the winner between flor/okla -+5.5.