[SparJMU]

I am messing around with the Kelly Calculator and I am finding one issue I can't figure out. I imagine I am just reading the output incorrectly for parlays?

If I have a single game, with an edge of 4% and odds of +100, the Kelly Calculator returns a bet size of 4% of my bankroll. Understood, no issues.

When I change the independent events to 2, and have both events with a 4% edge and odds of +100, the calculator returns:

1) 3.84%
2) 3.84%
Total 7.68%

I am assuming that means I should bet 3.84% of my bankroll on the two team parlay? I am also under the impression that because I entered +100 for both of my US Odds, this calculator is assuming that I am receiving true parlay odds of 3:1 for my two team parlay?

The thing that really confuses me is when I change the US Odds to -110 and -110, instead of 100 and 100, it now gives me the output:

1) 4.2%
2) 4.2%
Total 8.4%

I was under the impression that by changing the odds from +100 to -110, the suggested bet size would be less than the +100 odds. I am defintely confused at this point.

[bztips]

If you're really talking about a money-line parlay, then by definition you won't be betting the correct Kelly amount since, if you win your first bet, your parlay automatically takes all the first-bet winnings and puts it on the second game, regardless of what your edge is in that game. The 3.84% figure you cite refers to the Kelly amount for two simultaneous independent bets, not a parlay in the sense I just described.

[LT Profits]

For parlay stake(s), click on the 2 (or 3 or 4....) underneath "Stakes for parlays of size"

[SparJMU]

For parlay stake(s), click on the 2 (or 3 or 4....) underneath "Stakes for parlays of size"

Perfect. Thank You.

Wow it's amazing how small the parlay should be in comparison to the straight bets. On a $10,000 bankroll it recommends $384 on each straight bet, and only $16 on the parlay. It almost makes the parlay feel meaningless.

[CHUBNUT]

cant help thinking of the cartoon Wacky Races and Dick Dastardly's efforts to win when you read most of these think tank threads. There seems to be a view that the more complicated the formula for finding winners is, the better the outcome, which is probably the reverse. Keep it simple.

[sharpcat]

cant help thinking of the cartoon Wacky Races and Dick Dastardly's efforts to win when you read most of these think tank threads. There seems to be a view that the more complicated the formula for finding winners is, the better the outcome, which is probably the reverse. Keep it simple.

Why has Justin7 not banned you from the think tank yet?

[subs]

cant help thinking of the cartoon Wacky Races and Dick Dastardly's efforts to win when you read most of these think tank threads. There seems to be a view that the more complicated the formula for finding winners is, the better the outcome, which is probably the reverse. Keep it simple.

how often r u going to say the same thing

maths sux


if u don't like complicated just don't read this subforum? dude u stiffed some1 here outta points - u must really be making good money

[TheCalculator]

For parlay stake(s), click on the 2 (or 3 or 4....) underneath "Stakes for parlays of size"

Hi Guys -- Unfortunately I don't see anywhere to click.

Here's the error I get: calcMutExKelly: Sum of probabilities of mutually exclusive outcomes (1.7000000000000002) may not be > 1

Any help is appreciated!
Thanks,
Matt