i'm not a maths guy so i could be really wrong, just trying to stimulate discussion.
i believe goals scored in football is poisson, right? maybe this is misleading, sorry if it is. but i think the poisson formula might help u.
if u find the no-vig implied probability 1st.
in the example above
1/2.12=0.47
1/1.802=0.55
no vig =0.47/0.47+0.55=0.46
then use the poisson formula
here
i guess P < 3 = 0.54
x = 0, 1, 2
e = 2.71828
μ is ur answer
P(x; μ) = (e^-μ) (μ^x) / x!
so u need 0.54=[(2.71828^-μ) (μ^0) / 0!]+[(2.71828-μ) (μ^1!) / 1]+[(2.71828^-μ) (μ^2) / 2!]
i prolly messed it up but it was fun
what i have found here is if u post something stupid (prolly like my post above) some1 will troll it and then some1 even smarter will maybe help u out.
bring on the trolls...