I’m trying the convert a NHL total with a line into an expected total.
Should I try to use the Poisson distribution for this kind of event?
If so I have an example.
For 6 goals the under line is at +150. So the under should occur 0.4. When I use the Poisson formula do I set it, the cumulative probability of the score 6 or less, equal .4?
How do I solve for λ ?
I have no idea how to do this; any help will be greatly appreciated.
Thanks