After cashing at a 24-16-1 clip in Week 1, will Week 2 be just as kind to the favorites or will chalk bite the dust? The huge mismatches are what drove faves to the pay window a week ago, and this week's slate has some of the same including a threesome of contests featured inside this report. Capping Saturday night off will be a big match between the Miami Hurricanes and Tim Tebow's Florida Gators.
Tomato cans aren’t just for the boxing ring. The first week of the 2008 college football season had more than its share of mismatches – and not just the usual FBS-FCS laughers that don’t even draw any betting odds. No, we’re talking flat out bloodbaths, even within the major conferences.
Wake Forest (-11) 41, Baylor 13
South Carolina (-14) 34, North Carolina 0
Oklahoma State (-7½) 39, Washington State 13
Alabama (+4) 34, Clemson 10
That last one sticks out like a sore thumb. Favorites were 24-16-1 against the spread in Week 1, but those numbers were driven by the big fish eating the small fish. Favorites of under seven points were 5-6 ATS. Let’s keep that in mind as we look at three of this Saturday’s college football matchups.
Cincinnati at No. 4 Oklahoma
Saturday, Sep 6, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
Both teams are coming off blowout wins at home; Cincinnati crushed Eastern Kentucky 40-7, Oklahoma pasted mighty Chattanooga 57-2. But this matinee is no matchup of equals. The Sooners are 21½-point favorites with a total of 53½ points.
Cincinnati was 8-3-1 ATS last year and 7-4-1 ATS the year before. The nationally adored Sooners (Texas not included) were 7-7 ATS in their first year with Sam Bradford at quarterback. The Bearcats were also No. 15 in efficiency last year, not far behind the Sooners at No. 7. UC is expected to fall back this year without QB Ben Mauk. I disagree; Brian Kelly’s offensive system is strong enough for senior QB Dustin Grutza to keep things close against the Sooners.
The real strength of the Bearcats is their defense. Oklahoma is a viable national championship contender because of its offense, which unveils wideout and local product Ryan Broyles for the first time on Saturday. The Sooners secondary is the main concern in Norman this year. If they can stop Cincinnati, that’s a major step toward the title.
Central Michigan at No. 2 Georgia
Saturday, Sep 6, 3:30 p.m. (ET)
The MAC did a fine job in Week 1: 6-6 SU, 6-3 ATS. The Chippewas weren’t in on the betting action, although they started off on a winning note with a 31-12 win over Eastern Illinois. Meanwhile, Georgia’s 45-21 cupcake win over Georgia Southern wasn’t impressive enough to keep the preseason No. 1 from falling to No. 2 in the polls.
The Bulldogs are still 24-point favorites in this matchup with a total of 56½ points. A spread of over three touchdowns makes a lot more sense in this game than the Cincinnati-Oklahoma contest. Central Michigan was No. 86 in team efficiency last year, putting up nice numbers with Dan LeFevour quarterbacking the Chippewas spread offense, but allowing 36.9 points per game on defense. Georgia should crush them.
Miami-Florida at No. 5 Florida
Saturday, Sep 6, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Alabama’s win over Clemson punctuated a 10-2 (7-2 ATS) opening week for the SEC. Florida joined the parade by mauling Hawaii 56-10 as a 36½-point favorite. The Hurricanes had a slightly less difficult opponent: Charleston Southern, who fell 52-7. Miami’s young players looked outstanding in their first game at Dolphin Stadium. Florida will be a much better indicator of how much progress the ‘Canes have made under Randy Shannon. This will also be stud prospect Robert Marve’s first game at QB; he was Florida’s Mr. Football in 2006, one year after Tim Tebow.
The ‘Canes were No. 60 in efficiency last year. Florida was No. 5 and should keep its place among the big boys in 2008. Heisman winner Tebow is back for his junior season, and if the win over the Warriors is any indication, Tebow will be supported by a strong running game and a capable secondary. A repeat performance in Week 2 will get Florida to the pay window as 21½-point faves. The total is 51½.
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