[trotterhead]

So, I have been reading about this matchup and people are thinking that this is a trap game for MSU. This is the first game for Sparty outside the state of Michigan and have Iowa to look forward to next weekend, while Northwestern has had an extra week to prepare for this game.

My question - how good is Dan Persa? The Wildcats have not played any competition of mention (Vanderbilt, Illinois State, Rice, Central Michigan, Minnesota and Purdue). Their defense has not been good against the run allowing 193 yards on the ground vs Vanderbilt, 165 yards vs Minnesota, and 232 vs Purdue. MSU has averaged 206.2 rush ypg and has two terrific RB's in Baker and Bell. The strength of the Wildcat offense is the pass with Persa having a 78% completion ratio and connecting on key 3rd downs converting them 50% of the time. Vanderbilt has defended the pass the best against Northwestern so far this year only allowing Persa to pass for 222 yards but he still completed 19-21 passes. In the last 3 of 4 games they have passed for over 300 yards but once again this was against teams of Purdue, Minnesota, and Rice. Their run has not been as good with Persa leading the team with rushing yards. It seems that the MSU defense is somewhat susceptible to the pass, allowing 349 yards in the air to Notre Dame, 256 yards to Florida Atlantic, and 238 yards to W. Michigan and when their pass defense has been tested, they have given up more yards than expected. Their run defense has been solid holding Wisconsin to 165 yards, Michigan to 162 yards, and Illinois to 114. MSU will be able to move the ball well and score against a team that is poor on the run and slightly better against the pass.

MSU has played the tougher of the two schedules and MSU has beaten good opponents. With the threat of wet conditions at the start of the game, I am not sure how well NU will be able to pass, but not sure how MSU will play on the road. It seems that the spread should be higher!

Thoughts?

[frpm00]

My take on the NW game is they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I feel any team who has extra time to prepare for a team always hold a slight advantage as there players will be rested and the game plan you have will be cemented into the players heads. NW has not been winning pretty this yr but they have been winning.Sparty been playing physical close games ( not counting last week ) recently. Also Sparty has a HUGE game next weekend against Iowa which might decide the Big Ten.On the road here I feel game will be close, depending what the money line is on this game come game time might throw a small play on that as well.

Its a situational cap just like how alot of people where on South Carolina a few weeks back and Wisky last week. Plus the very generous Vegas line that begs you to take Mich St helps out a little as well. There are a few weeks Vegas lets the public or "squares" have a weekend or 2 but most of the time the want games to be bet a certain way. They are not just looking to collect the juice. All IMO.
BOL I am on NW here and this is my biggest bet this weekend

[stingray14]

excellent write up. I agree 100%

[MadTiger]

excellent write up.

Agree. Thanks for your time on this. Seriously.

[awesomeness]

yes please and thanks dude!

[mann2chc]

Mich St will run all ove NW today... The reasoon MSU has given up so many yards in the air is bc the other teams are trying to get back in the game and has to throw alot

[trotterhead]

It looks like it will be raining through all of the first half and most of the second half. The advantage is this scenario goes to the better running team, however, NU has a short pass offense that almost functions as a running game. What about the O/U of 54?

[ROYAJA8]

Mich St is the play here. A top 10 team.

[thebestthereis]

you get it all the time where people wanna believe in let down theory, look ahead, eat chicken before the game, travel, and home dog touchdown jesus bullshit. sometimes all that means nothing even though i do gravitate that way here and there, not here. northwestern stinks and will lose by double digits.